Projections for Tiger Starting Pitchers in 2006

Last week I calculated an average projection over three systems (Bill James Handbook, PECOTA, ZIPS) for each Tiger batter expected to be on the 2006 opening day roster. Today I’ll look at the starting pitchers including everybody who has been mentioned as having some kind of shot at the fifth starting spot.

The table below is color coded. Every player projected to fall in the top 30 percent of the league’s starting pitchers for ERA is coded in blue. Every player projected to fall in the bottom 30% is coded in red. The middle 40% are in black. These percentiles are based on 2005 ERAs for pitchers who started at least 17 games.

Table - Average Projections for Tiger Starting Pitchers in 2006

Player	IP	ERA
Kenny Rogers	191	4.53
Jeremy Bonderman	194	4.08
Mike Maroth	205	4.68
Nate Robertson	196	4.50
Justin Verlander	143	3.98
Joel Zumaya	144	4.78
Roman Colon	82	4.69
Wil Ledezma	101	5.00
Jason Grilli	32	5.74

Here are the highlights:

• Based on the projections, Justin Verlander should win the fifth starter job by far and would have the lowest ERA among all starters.
  

• Of the four veteran starters, Jeremy Bonderman’s ERA would improve the most and Kenny Rogers’ ERA would rise the most from 2005.
  

• No pitcher is projected to finish in the top 30% but the four definite starters and one probable starter (Verlander) would all fall in the middle 40%.