Scherzer Trails Darvish in Raw Run Prevention

It looks like it could be a somewhat contentious Cy Young race in the American League this year with traditionalists pointing to Tigers current ace Max Scherzer's incredible 19-1 record and MLB.COM's Brian Kenny rallying to eliminate W-L record.  Most readers of this blog are not going to put much, if any, weight on pitcher W-L record in evaluating pitchers, but what is the best statistic to use?  There is no easy answer of course and it's best to look at a variety of numbers.  I will discuss some of my favorites in the coming weeks.

Before getting into more complex stuff like FIP and BABIP and team defense, I like to look at simple run prevention: How many runs did the pitcher allow in how many innings?  We know that not every run allowed is the pitcher's responsibility, but it's a good place to start.

Scherzer has allowed 62 runs (all runs, not just unearned runs) in 183 1/3 innings (IP) for a Run Average (RA) of 3.05.  Table 1 below shows that Scherzer is fourth in the league in RA behind Rangers right hander Yu Darvish (2.84), teammate Anibal Sanchez (2.87) and Bartolo Colon of the Athletics (3.00).

Table 1: AL RA Leaders

Pitcher	Team	IP	R	RA
Yu Darvish	Rangers	174.2	55	2.84
Anibal Sanchez	Tigers	144.2	46	2.87
Bartolo Colon	Athletics	159.1	53	3.00
Max Scherzer	Tigers	183.1	62	3.05
Hiroki Kuroda	Yankees	171.1	60	3.16
Felix Hernandez	Mariners	187.2	67	3.22
Hisashi Iwakuma	Mariners	184.0	66	3.23
James Shields	Royals	189.0	68	3.24
Derek Holland	Rangers	180.0	66	3.30
Chris Sale	White Sox	180.1	67	3.35
Jered Weaver	Angels	128.1	49	3.44
Matt Moore	Rays	121.1	47	3.49
Justin Masterson	Indians	188.1	74	3.54
John Lackey	Red Sox	155.0	61	3.54
Ervin Santana	Royals	180.2	72	3.60

 Data source: FanGraphs.com

The first thing you may have noticed is that Scherzer has more innings pitched than all the pitchers ahead of him and he needs to get credit for that.  In order to give pitchers credit for quantity of innings pitched as well as quality, Pete Palmer introduced the Pitching Runs (PR) statistic in 1984.  Pitching Runs tells us the number of runs saved or lost by a pitcher compared to league average.  It is based on a pitcher's IP, runs (R) and league RA.  Palmer actually used earned runs, but I prefer runs. 

The American League RA is 4.33, which is .48 runs per inning.  So, you would expect the average pitcher to have allowed 88.2 runs in 183 1/3 innings.  Thus, Scherzer has allowed 62 - 88.2 = 26.2 fewer runs than an average pitcher in the same innings, that is, he has 26.2 Pitching Runs.  The complete formula is:

PR = IP * (Lg RA / 9) - R  

or ( if you prefer earned runs):

PR = IP * (Lg ERA / 9) - ER

The AL leaders are listed in Table 2 below.  Darvish is still the leader with 28.8, but Scherzer moves up to second on this metric. 

Table 2: AL Pitching Runs Leaders

Pitcher	Team	IP	R	PR
Yu Darvish	Rangers	174.2	55	28.8
Max Scherzer	Tigers	183.1	62	26.1
Bartolo Colon	Athletics	159.1	53	23.5
Anibal Sanchez	Tigers	144.2	46	23.4
Felix Hernandez	Mariners	187.2	67	23.1
James Shields	Royals	189.0	68	22.9
Hisashi Iwakuma	Mariners	184.0	66	22.5
Hiroki Kuroda	Yankees	171.1	60	22.3
Derek Holland	Rangers	180.0	66	20.6
Chris Sale	White Sox	180.1	67	19.6
Justin Masterson	Indians	188.1	74	16.5
Ervin Santana	Royals	180.2	72	14.7
John Lackey	Red Sox	155.0	61	13.6
Jered Weaver	Angels	128.1	49	12.6
Chris Tillman	Orioles	167.0	68	12.3

Data source: FanGraphs.com

You can go one step further by considering ballpark environment. According to the FanGraphs.com, ballpark factors, Comerica Park allows about 2% more runs than average, so we would multiply Scherzer's pitching runs by 1.02 yielding 26.6 Adjusted Pitching Runs.  Table 3 shows that Darvish leads with 30.5 Adjusted Pitching Runs followed by Scherzer 26.6 and Sanchez (23.8).

Table 3: AL Adjusted Pitching Runs Leaders

Pitcher	Team	IP	R	PR Adj
Yu Darvish	Rangers	174.2	55	30.5
Max Scherzer	Tigers	183.1	62	26.6
Anibal Sanchez	Tigers	144.2	46	23.8
James Shields	Royals	189.0	68	23.4
Bartolo Colon	Athletics	159.1	53	22.8
Hiroki Kuroda	Yankees	171.1	60	22.8
Derek Holland	Rangers	180.0	66	21.8
Felix Hernandez	Mariners	187.2	67	21.7
Hisashi Iwakuma	Mariners	184.0	66	21.2
Chris Sale	White Sox	180.1	67	20.4
Justin Masterson	Indians	188.1	74	15.8
Ervin Santana	Royals	180.2	72	15.0
John Lackey	Red Sox	155.0	61	14.3
Chris Tillman	Orioles	167.0	68	12.7
Jered Weaver	Angels	128.1	49	12.1

Data source: FanGraphs.com

Pitching analysis does not end with runs scored of course.  We need to try to isolate a pitcher's responsibility for runs allowed from that of his defenders, but that's complicated and to some extent unknown.  I'll talk more about that later, but in terms of pure runs scored, Scherzer is currently a little behind Darvish with a month to go.