(Photo Credit: Chicago Tribune)
Yesterday, I listed the American League run prevention leaders starting with Astros southpaw Dallas Keuchel. Today I will look at the National League leaders.
There is no surefire way to determine the best pitchers in baseball, but a pitcher's job is to prevent runs. So, it's useful to estimate how many runs pitchers saved their teams compared to an average pitcher. There are several different ways to do this:
- Pitching Runs - Runs Saved Above Average based on innings and runs allowed.
- Adjusted Pitching Runs - Pitching Runs minus estimated runs allowed by fielders.
- Base Runs - Runs Saved Above Average based on batters faced and hits, walks, total bases and home runs allowed.
- FIP Runs - Runs Saved Above Average based on innings, bases on balls, hit batsmen and home runs allowed and strikeouts.
The 2015 National League leaders are presented in Table 1 below. The top three should be familiar if you have been reading about Cy Young Award contenders:
- Cubs ace Jake Arrieta led in Base Runs with 56 and was second in Pitching Runs (55), Adjusted Pitching Runs (54) and FIP Runs (47). That comes out to an NL best average of 53.
- Dodgers right hander Zack Greinke was first in Pitching Runs (61) and Adjusted Pitching Runs (56) and second in Base Runs (53). However, he was just fourth in FIP Runs (33). His Average was 51.
- Dodgers southpaw Clayton Kershaw led in FIP (55) by a good margin while finishing third in Pitching Runs (47), Adjusted Pitching Runs (42) and Base Runs (52) giving him an average of 49.
Table 1: National League Run Prevention Leaders, 2015
Pitcher
|
Team
|
IP
|
Pitching
Runs
|
Adjusted
Pitching Runs
|
Base
Runs
|
FIP
Runs
|
Average
|
Jake
Arrieta
|
CHC
|
229
|
55
|
54
|
56
|
47
|
53
|
Zack
Greinke
|
LAD
|
222.2
|
61
|
56
|
53
|
33
|
51
|
Clayton
Kershaw*
|
LAD
|
232.2
|
47
|
42
|
52
|
55
|
49
|
Max
Scherzer
|
WSN
|
228.2
|
33
|
34
|
32
|
36
|
34
|
Jacob
deGrom
|
NYM
|
191
|
30
|
28
|
33
|
30
|
30
|
Gerrit
Cole
|
PIT
|
208
|
26
|
23
|
29
|
33
|
28
|
Madison
Bumgarner*
|
SFG
|
218.1
|
29
|
19
|
29
|
26
|
26
|
Matt
Harvey
|
NYM
|
189.1
|
26
|
24
|
26
|
22
|
24
|
John
Lackey
|
STL
|
218
|
31
|
30
|
14
|
14
|
22
|
Johnny
Cueto
|
CIN
|
130.2
|
19
|
21
|
22
|
15
|
19
|
Jon
Lester*
|
CHC
|
205
|
13
|
12
|
19
|
29
|
18
|
Carlos
Martinez
|
STL
|
179.2
|
19
|
18
|
9
|
19
|
16
|
Tyson
Ross
|
SDP
|
196
|
14
|
11
|
17
|
23
|
16
|
Shelby
Miller
|
ATL
|
205.1
|
14
|
15
|
14
|
16
|
15
|
Francisco
Liriano*
|
PIT
|
186.2
|
12
|
9
|
18
|
18
|
14
|
Lance
Lynn
|
STL
|
175.1
|
16
|
15
|
2
|
14
|
12
|
Noah
Syndergaard
|
NYM
|
150
|
10
|
8
|
14
|
14
|
11
|
A.J.
Burnett
|
PIT
|
164
|
13
|
10
|
3
|
13
|
10
|
Michael
Wacha
|
STL
|
181.1
|
11
|
10
|
10
|
5
|
9
|
Kyle
Hendricks
|
CHC
|
180
|
2
|
1
|
12
|
17
|
8
|
Gio
Gonzalez*
|
WSN
|
175.2
|
3
|
4
|
1
|
23
|
8
|