Tigers Base Running Improving

In an earlier post, I used the Baseball Prospectus base running statistics to show that the Tigers were 28th out of 30 teams in base running through May.  At that time, base running had cost the Tigers about four runs (-3.9) compared to an average team.  With the emergence of speedy outfielder Quintin Berry near the top of the lineup and a somewhat more aggressive approach overall in recent games, I wanted to take another look at base running today.

To review, Baseball Prospectus tracks several different types of base running advancement:

• GAR (Equivalent Ground Advancement Runs) - Contribution of advancement on ground outs.

• SBR (Equivalent Stolen Base Runs) - contribution of stolen bases including runs subtracted for caught stealings and pickoffs.

• AAR (Equivalent Air Advancement Runs) - Contribution of base runners advancing on fly outs

• HAR (Equivalent Hit Advancement Runs) - contribution of runners taking the extra base on a hit: first to third on a single, second to home on a single, first to home on a double.

• OAR (Equivalent Other Advancement Runs) - contribution of other base running advancements - passed balls, wild pitches and balks (evidence shows that those events are not entirely randomly and are influenced by base runners to an extent).

• BRR (Equivalent Base Running Runs)- the sum of the five above statistics above or total base running contribution.

The Table below shows that the Tigers have improved in all facets of base running since the beginning of June.  For example, the run contribution from taking extra bases on hits went from -2.64 runs below average in April/May to 0.45 runs above average in June/July.  For the season, they are at -2.19 in that category. 

Table 1: Base Running Runs Above Average

Advancement	Through May	June 1 – July 2	Total
GAR	-1.02	+0.89	-0.13
SBR	+0.92	+0.11	+1.03
AAR	-0.34	+1.61	+1.27
HAR	-2.64	+0.45	-2.19
OAR	-0.84	+0.14	-0.70
BRR	-3.92	+3.22	-0.70

 Overall, Detroit is now at -0.7 base running runs as of last night's game, which moves them up to 17th in baseball.  This is an improvement of 3.2 runs from April/May to June/July.  That may not sound like a huge huge number of runs, but it is the third highest jump of any team behind only the Phillies (7.2 runs) and Braves (4.2 runs).

It's hard to know exactly who is doing it for the Tigers since monthly splits are not available.  I was only able to do splits for teams because I had saved the April/May totals in my previous post.  However, it probably comes to no big surprise that the Tigers base running has improved if you are watching the games.  The leaders for the season are:

Jackson 2.2
Berry 2.1
Dirks 1.5
Santiago 1.0
Kelly 1.0

I don't want to overstate the importance of base running.  The variation in team runs created by base running is small in comparison to that created by hitting.  In fact, there is a difference of about 18 base running runs between the best (Atlanta 9.6) and worse (Kansas City -8.2) teams in baseball.  On the other hand the best hitting team has about 110 more batting runs than the worst hitting team.  Still, every little thing a team can do to score more runs is useful.  Thus, the Tigers recent base running improvement is encouraging.

Quintin Berry Already Among AL Base Running Leaders

Yesterday, I looked at team base running showing that the Tigers rank 28th in baseball according to the Baseball Prospectus base running data.  Today, I'll look at the one new Tiger who is trying to do something about it.  Speedy outfielder Quintin Berry is making his presence felt atop the the Tigers line-up hitting .362 with a .423 on-base percentage since replacing the injured Austin Jackson in center field. 

Berry is taking advantage of his high on-base rate with his base running stealing six bases without being caught stealing and scoring 11 runs in 11 games.  He was picked off in yesterday's game but even that was a questionable call by the umpire.  The Baseball Prospectus base running data show that Berry is doing more with his base running than stealing bases.  As seen in the earlier post, these data include the following:

• GAR (Equivalent Ground Advancement Runs) - Contribution of advancement on ground outs.

• SBR (Equivalent Stolen Base Runs) - contribution of stolen bases including runs subtracted for caught stealings and pickoffs.

• AAR (Equivalent Air Advancement Runs) - Contribution of base runners advancing on fly outs

• HAR (Equivalent Hit Advancement Runs) - contribution of runners taking the extra base on a hit: first to third on a single, second to home on a single, first to home on a double.

• OAR (Equivalent Other Advancement Runs) - contribution of other base running advancements - passed balls, wild pitches and balks (evidence shows that those events are not entirely randomly and are influenced by base runners to an extent).

• BRR (Equivalent Base Running Runs)- the sum of the five above statistics above or total base running contribution.

Note that players are penalized for making outs and also for not advancing when the average base runner would have been expected to do so.

The numbers for Berry are shown below:

GAR = +1.01 runs above average advancing on ground outs
SBR = +0.93 on base stealing
AAR = +0.08 on fly ball outs
HAR = +0.47 taking the extra base on hits
OAR =0.00 on other events
BRR = 2.49 total base running runs above average

These numbers tell us us that Jackson has been particularly good at advancing on ground ball outs and taking the extra base on hits as well as base stealing.  The 2.49 BRR tells us that Berry has added an estimated 2 to 3 runs to the Tigers offense compared to the average player with the same opportunities.  That may not sound like a lot, but it's actually a pretty impressive total for an 11-game stint.  In fact, Table 1 below shows that Berry is already fourth in the American League in BRR entering Sunday's game versus the Yankees.


Table 1: American League Base Running Runs Leaders

Player	BRR
De Aza, Chi	3.2
KIpnis, Cle	3.2
Andrus, Tex	2.5
Berry, Det	2.5
Aviles, Bos	2.4
Joyce, TB	2.3
Lawrie, Tor	2.2
Suzuki, Sea	2.1
Brantley, Cle	2.0
Ackley, Sea	2.0
Lillibridge, Chi	2.0

Table 2 shows what other Tigers have done on the bases according to BRR.  Other good base runners include Jackson (1.7 BRR) and Andy Dirks (1.5).  The Tigers worst base runners so far have been Prince Fielder (-3.2) and Miguel Cabrera (-2.3).


Table 2: Base Running Runs for Detroit Tigers

Player	BRR
Berry	2.5
Jackson	1.7
Dirks	1.5
Boesch	0.7
Kelly	0.5
Laird	0.2
Santiago	0.1
Worth	-0.6
Peralta	-1.2
Avila	-1.3
Young	-1.5
Cabrera	-2.3
Fielder	-3.2

Regardless of the small sample size, it seems clear that Berry's base running prowess is legitimate.  The question is whether he can continue to get on base.  If he keeps up anything even close to his current pace, he will surely remain in the starting line-up after Jackson returns from the disabled list.  That would be a nice boost to a team that has a lot of trouble running the bases.

Tigers Lacking Team Speed

For most of baseball history, baserunning has been measured by stolen bases and caught stealing. Fans have insisted for a long time that there is more to baserunning than stealing bases and they are correct. For example, a good baserunner will go from first to third on a single or advance from second to third on a fly ball more often than a poor baserunner. Yet, those types of maneuvers where not tracked until recently.

With the development of play-by-play databases such as Retrosheet, it is now possible to measure baserunning beyond stolen bases.  The most advanced baserunning metric is Equivalent Baserunning Runs (EQBRR) found at at Baseball Prospectus.  Developed by former Baseball Prospectus writer and current MLB team statistician Dan Fox, EQBRR takes into account the following types of baserunner advancement:

(1) Ground outs (e.g. Runner is on first base with other bases unoccupied and less than two outs and then advances to second on a ground out)

(2) Air outs (e.g. Runner is on second base with third base unoccupied and less than two outs and then advances to third on a fly out)

(3) Stolen bases, caught stealing and pickoffs.

(4) Hits (Runner goes from first to third on a single, second to home on a single or first to home on a double)

(5) Other (passed balls, wild pitches, balks)

A complex algorithm takes all of the above into consideration in estimating the number of runs which a player contributed to his team above what you would expect from an average baserunner. For those who are interested in the details, the methodology can be found here, here and here.  .

The top baserunners in the Majors according to EQBRR from 2008-2010 are listed below:

Michael Bourn 29.9
Ian Kinsler 19.2
Ichiro Suzuki 18.1
Brett Gardner 16.9
Shane Victorino 16.6
Rajai Davis 16.3
Chone Figgins 15.8
Carl Crawford 15.8
Jacoby Ellsbury 14.1
Willy Taveras 13.7

Austin Jackson had an EQBRR of 6.9 in 2010 meaning that he contributed about seven runs with his base running beyond what you would expect from an average runner. This ranked him fifth in the American League and ninth in the Majors.

Beyond Jackson, the Tigers don't create a lot of runs with their baserunning. Last year, the rest of the team was 9 runs below average. Take away Johnny Damon (+3.7) and Gerald Laird (+1.0) and they were nearly 14 runs below average. They haven't done anything during the off-season to rectify that. Victor Martinez, their biggest acquisition of the winter, had an EqBRR of -4.9 from 2008-2010.

Most of next year's starters were below average from 2008-2010:

Austin Jackson 6.9
Scott Sizemore 0.9 (small sample)
Ryan Raburn 0.7
Will Rhymes -2.2 (small Sample)
Alex Avila -2.5
Calos Guillen -2.9
Victor Martinez -4.9
Miguel Cabrera -6.3
Magglio Ordonez -7.3
Brandon Inge -7.4
Jhonny Peralta -8.6

Baserunning is not nearly as important as hitting in run scoring, and I'm not overly concerned about the Tigers lack of speed. However, it's not something that can be ignored. Consider that there were an estimated 31 baserunning runs or three wins between the Rays (12.7) and Royals (-18.3) in 2010. The Tigers will probably be below average on the bases again in 2011 and will have to make up for it with their bats.

Gerald Laird Leads Tigers in Base Running

For most of baseball history, the only available measures of base running were stolen bases and caught stealing. Thanks to play by play data bases such as Retrosheet, it is now possible to track such events as advancing from first to third on a single and advancing on fly outs and ground outs. I talked a lot about base running measures in a series of articles last year. The most advanced base running statistics were developed by Dan Fox and can be found at Baseball Prospectus. They include the following (all of them are runs above average):

• EqGAR (Equivalent Ground Advancement Runs) - Contribution of advancement on ground outs.
  

• EqSBR (Equivalent Stolen Base Runs) - contribution of stolen bases including runs subtracted for caught stealings and pickoffs.

• EqAAR (Equivalent Air Advancement Runs) - Contribution of base runners advancing on fly outs

• EqHAR (Equivalent Hit Advancement Runs) - contribution of runners taking the extra base on a hit: first to third on a single, second to home on a single, first to home on a double.
  

• EqOAR (Equivalent Other Advancement Runs) - contribution of other base running advancements - passed balls, wild pitches and balks (evidence shows that those events are not entirely random and are influenced by base runners to an extent).
  

• EqBRR (Equivalent Base Running Runs)- the sum of the five above statistics above or total base running contribution.

Note that players are penalized for making outs and also for not advancing when the average base runner would have been expected to do so.

The Tigers have scored runs on the bases as follows so far in 2009:

EqGAR = -0.3 runs above (below in their case) average on ground outs
EqSBR = -5.2 on base stealing
EqAAR = -0.2 on fly ball outs
EqHAR = 1.2 taking the extra base on hits
EqOAR = 1.2 on other events
EqBRR = -3.2 total base running runs above average

Overall, the Tigers are 3.2 runs below the average team on the bases which ranks them 15th in baseball. Other than base stealing though, they have been an above average base running team They are 2.1 above average on all other base running advancement combined.

Individually, the Tigers leading base runner is not Josh Anderson or Curtis Granderson or Ramon Santiago but catcher Gerald Laird. He is 2.4 runs better than league average with places him in the American League top twenty and first among catchers. It may surprise some that Laird is the team's best base runner but I think Tigers fans that watch the team every day have seen that he is reasonably fast for a catcher and a smart base runner. Equivalent Base Running Runs for others are shown below:

Laird 2.4
Everett 1.4
thomas 0.9
Ordonez 0.0
Granderson -0.1
Anderson -0.2
Raburn -0.2
Inge -0.8
Polanco -0.9
Cabrera -1.6
Santiago-2.3
Thames-2.5

Team Base Running in 2008

In a recent article at Beyond the Box Score, Sky Kalkman identified the best base runners of 2008 using the Baseball Prospectus base running statistics.

The BP statistics created by Dan Fox include the following (all of them are runs above average):

• EqAAR (Equivalent Air Advancement Runs) - Contribution of base runners advancing on fly outs

• EqGAR (Equivalent Ground Advancement Runs) - Contribution of advancement on ground outs.
  

• EqSBR (Equivalent Stolen Base Runs) - contribution of stolen bases including runs subtracted for caught stealings and pickoffs.
  

• EqHAR (Equivalent Hit Advancement Runs) - contribution of runners taking the extra base on a hit: first to third on a single, second to home on a single, first to home on a double.
  

• EqOAR (Equivalent Other Advancement Runs) - contribution of other base running advancements - passed balls, wild pitches and balks (evidence shows that those events are not entirely randomly and are influenced by base runners to an extent).
  

• EqBRR (Equivalent Base Running Runs)- the sum of the five above statistics above or total base running contribution.

Note that players are penalized for making outs and al;so for not advancing when the average base runner would have been expected to do so.

In Sky's team analysis, he excluded stolen base runs from the EqBRR. While that is a reasonable way to look at things given that many batting runs stats already include stolen bases and caught stealing, I wanted to look at team base running including stolen bases and caught stealing. The Tigers scored runs on the bases as follows in 2008:

EqGAR = -3.28 runs above (below in their case) average on ground outs
EqSBR = -5.20 on base stealing
EqAAR = -1.60 on fly ball outs
EqHAR = -0.82 taking the extra base on hits
EqOAR = +1.84 on other events
EqBRR = -9.06 total base running runs above average

EqBRR or Total base running runs above average for all teams is shown in Table 1 below.

Table 1: Team base running runs above average in 2008

Team	Runs
NYN	19.70
PHI	15.25
MIN	11.21
COL	10.51
OAK	8.73
TEX	8.39
LAN	7.94
ANA	6.11
MIL	4.55
NYA	2.67
FLO	2.20
CLE	1.27
ARI	-0.66
CHA	-2.05
TOR	-2.41
SDN	-3.65
ATL	-4.12
KCA	-4.61
PIT	-5.19
HOU	-5.32
BOS	-5.65
SLN	-5.93
SEA	-8.67
TBA	-8.95
DET	-9.06
CHN	-11.97
SFN	-12.35
CIN	-12.88
WAS	-14.80
BAL	-16.18

The best base running team was the Mets at 19.70 runs above average and the worst was the Orioles with -16.18. So there was about a 36 run difference between the best and worse teams in the majors. While 22 teams fall between +10 and -10, there are eight teams that fall outside that 20 run range. So, while base running may not be as vital as some people suggest, it also not something to be ignored.

The difference in base running between the Tigers (-9.06) and Twins (11.21) accounted for about 20 runs difference. That helps to explain why the Twins scored more runs than the Tigers last year despite the same OBP and 203 fewer total bases.

A rough estimate of how many runs a team should score is Runs Created = Total Bases times OBP. Based on that, the Tigers (2,504 TB and .340 OBP) should have scored about 70 more runs than the Twins (2,301 TB and .340 OBP) instead of 7 runs fewer. Base running explains part of that. A bigger reason was the Twins .305 batting average with runners in scoring position versus the Tigers .268.

Tigers Base Running Needs Improvement

In Jason Beck's column yesterday, he reported that Jim Leyland wants the Tigers to improve their base running this year:

"I think we were a below-average baserunning team that has to get at least average,"

The Tigers skipper went on to say that it's hard to teach base running because there is not a statistic for it:

"It's one of the toughest parts of the game to teach, because it's really not a statistic," Leyland said. "You see the batting average. You see the RBIs. You see the home runs. You don't see the baserunning. There's never anything about the baserunning in the paper, other than stolen bases.

There actually are statistics for it now and Jason Beck found one on Bill James Online. According to that site, the Tigers advanced an extra base (e.g go from first to third on a single, steal a base) 12 fewer times than the average team in 2008.

It was actually worse than that though as James' methodology does not include base advancement on ground balls and fly balls, two categories where the Tigers were particularly bad. Using my algorithm (which is really a variation of what James did), the Tigers were actually -65.9 bases gained below average in 2008.

Table 1 below shows that the Tigers were below average in all running categories: Taking the extra base on hits (-6.1), moving up on ground outs (-34.8), advancing on air balls (-17.1) and other types of advancement (-7.9). The other category includes stolen bases, caught stealing, pickoffs, passed balls, wild pitches and balks. In contrast, the team was above average in a couple of categories in 2007: hits (+10.7) and other (16.2). Overall, they were right around league average in 2007 (+1.3).

So, Leyland is not just blowing spring training smoke. They really were bad at base running last year and it's an area which needs work. The biggest culprits were Magglio Ordonez (-34.6), Miguel Cabrera (-19.8), Marcus Thames (-13.2) and Edgar Renteria (-12.8).

Another thing to keep in mind is that the first place Twins were +45 in base running last year which is one of the reasons they scored 8 more runs than the Tigers despite being tied in OBP and .036 behind the Bengals in slugging. The other reason was a .305 batting average with runners in scoring position.


Table 1: Advancement By Tigers Base Runners in 2007-2008

Bases Gained Above Avg.	2007	2008
Hits	+10.7	-6.1
Ground balls	-17.6	-34.8
Air	-8.0	-17.1
Other (SB,PB,WP,BK)	+16.2	-7.9
Total	+1.3	-65.9

The information used here was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by
Retrosheet.  Interested parties may contact Retrosheet at "www.retrosheet.org".

Best Tigers Base Runners

Last year and the year before, I did a long series on base running. This year, I'm going to use the Baseball Prospectus base running stats. Their data is based on an algorithm developed by former BP writer and current Pittsburgh Pirates statistician Dan Fox. Part of what Dan did was similar to what I did but his algorithm is more complex and the results are a little more accurate. Using the retrosheet database and probability theory, Dan Calculated six base running statistics (all of measured in runs above average):

• EqAAR (Equivalent Air Advancement Runs) - Contribution of base runners advancing on fly outs

• EqGAR (Equivalent Ground Advancement Runs) - Contribution of advancement on ground outs.
  

• EqSBR (Equivalent Stolen Base Runs) - contribution of stolen bases including runs subtracted for caught stealings and pickoffs.
  

• EqHAR (Equivalent Hit Advancement Runs) - contribution of runners taking the extra base on a hit: first to third on a single, second to home on a single, first to home on a double.
  

• EqOAR (Equivalent Other Advancement Runs) - contribution of other base running advancements - passed balls, wild pitches and balks (evidence shows that those events are not entirely randomly and are influenced by base runners to an extent).
  

• EqBRR (Equivalent Base Running Runs)- the sum of the five above statistics above or total base running contribution.
  

Each of the measures considers the following:

• Number of opportunities

• Each runner is compared to league average for each situation mentioned above

• Base runners are penalized for making outs on bases attempting to advance
  

Adjustments are made for the following:

• Runners on base and numbers of outs before and after the play determine the run value

• Run value is also influenced by where the ball is hit - left field, center field, right field

You can read Dan's entire algorithm in detail here, here, and here. Table 1 below presents EQBRR for Tigers base runners in 2007 and 2008. Curtis Granderson has been the leading Tigers base runner over the past two years with a total of 12.38 runs above average. Other above average Tigers include Gary Sheffield (4.93), Placido Polanco (3.85) and newly acquired Gerald Laird (3.31). Their worst base runners are Magglio Ordonez (-9.87) and Miguel Cabrera (-6.84).

Table 1 - Base Running Runs Above Average for Tigers in 2007-2008

Player	EqBRR (2007)	EqBRR (2008)	EqBRR (two yrs)
Curtis Granderson	6.42	5.96	12.38
Gary Sheffield	4.99	-0.06	4.93
Placido Polanco	0.92	2.93	3.85
Gerald Laird	2.15	1.16	3.31
Carlos Guillen	-0.17	0.86	0.69
Adam Everett	-1.72	0.76	-0.96
Marcus Thames	-0.10	-1.49	-1.59
Brandon Inge	0.35	-2.32	-1.97
Miguel Cabrera	-4.30	-2.54	-6.84
Magglio Ordonez	-1.89	-7.98	-9.87