Projecting the Tigers 2013 Run Total

In previous posts, I discussed the linear weights measures - Weighted On-Base Average (wOBA) and Weighted Runs Above Average (wRAA).  Another metric in the linear weights family is Weighted Runs Created (wRC) which estimates how many absolute runs (as opposed to runs above average) a player contributed to his team with his batting.

The wRC statistic is cacluted fairly easily from wRAA and MLB Runs per Plate Appearance (RPA):

   wRC = wRAA + MLB RPA x PA

For example, Tigers slugger Miguel Cabrera had 57.3 wRAA in 697 PA in 2012.  The MLB RPA was .114 so Cabrera had 57.3 + .114 x 697 = 137 wRC which was the highest total in the majors. 

In comparison to wOBA and wRAA, wRC is generally not so useful for assessing the value of or ranking of players because it tends to give too much weight to playing time over performance.  A case in point last year was Delmon Young accumulating more wRC (65) than Andy Dirks (54).  Few would argue that Young was a more productive hitter than Dirks in 2012.  Young had more playing time, but provided below average hitting in those at bats.

The wRC metric is more useful at the team level.  A team's wRC total usually falls within 5% of its run scored total.  The Tigers combined for 763 wRC in 2012 which was 5% more than their 726 actual runs scored, so they were off more than most teams.  What does that tell us about the Tigers?  It suggests that they did not make the most out of their hits and walks and failed to scored as many runs as they should have.  Some reasons for that which have been discussed through the off-season are poor base running, too many double plays and a tendency to hit home runs when nobody was on base.

The wRC statistic is also helpful in projecting how many runs a team will score in the future.  Table 1 below lists Tigers projected players in 2013 and their estimated PA.  In the next column  is the three-year average of wRC adjusted for expected PA.  For example, Cabrera had 412 wRC in 2,033 PA over 2010-2012 which comes out to .203 Runs Created Per PA.  Multiplying .203 times 675 PA (his projected PA for 2013) yields his three-year average of 137.

The final column of the table is a projection for wRC in 2013.  In all cases, it is fairly close to the three-year average.  I adjusted it down slightly if a player is aging and/or coming off a major injury (e.g. Victor Martinez, Torii Hunter and Jhonny Peralta).  I don't expect any players to get significantly better, although I did add a couple of runs for Austin Jackson due to his youth.  The bench is a guess as to who will make the roster and get playing time.  However, the projections would not have been any different if I substituted Danny Worth for Ramon Santiago or Quintin Berry in for one of the outfielders. 

Aggregating all the wRC yields 820 for the team. Remember though that they scored 37 fewer runs last year than the "created".  Will that happen again in 2013?  The Tigers problems hitting home runs with runners on base last year was probably a fluke that should straighten itself out.  However, I suspect the problems with base running and double plays will continue.  That cost the team about 20 runs last year and I'll estimate the same for 2013.  So, 820-20 gives 800 runs scored for the year which coincidentally is exactly the same as the simulated result at Replacement Level Yankees blog.  .

Of course, the analysis above assumes no major injuries, but an an increase of 74 runs (7 wins) would be impressive.  Most of that comes from replacing Brennan Boesch, Ryan Raburn and Delmon Young with Hunter, Martinez and a full season of Omar Infante.  If all goes well, it should be a productive and exciting line-up this year.   

Table 1: Tigers Projected Runs in 2013

Player	PA	Runs Created
		3-Yr Avg*	2013 Proj
Avila	450	61	60
Fielder	700	124	125
Infante	575	63	60
Peralta	575	64	60
Cabrera	675	137	135
Dirks	450	61	60
Jackson	650	83	85
Hunter	600	84	80
Martinez	500	76	70
Pena	200	16	15
Santiago	200	18	15
Boesch	150	17	15
Garcia	150	15	15
Others	375	---	25
Base Running/ DP	---	---	-20
Total Runs	6,200		800

*Adjusted for Expected PA in 2013

Tigers Will Run Away from AL Central

As opening day approaches, I'm making predictions for each of the six divisions in MLB.   I have projected won/loss records, runs scored (RS), runs allowed (RA) and run differential (RS-RA) for each team.  I don't have a complex formula to determine the results.  I just looked at last year's final numbers and moved teams up and down according to how much I thought they would regress or improve from last year to this year.

In earlier posts, I predicted that the Tigers would score 795 runs and allow 680 runs.  That translates into a 93-69 record and an easy first place finish in the AL Central.  The Tigers have just about everything going for them including a dangerous offense, strong starting pitching and solid bullpen.  The only real weakness is a porous defense, but that won't prevent them from running away from a mediocre field in the central.


Projected AL Central Standings

Team	W	L	RS	RA	RS-RA
Detroit Tigers	93	69	795	680	115
Cleveland Indians	81	81	718	723	-5
Kansas City Royals	74	88	674	749	-75
Chicago White Sox	73	89	639	716	-77
Minnesota Twins	69	93	677	794	-117

Divisional Awards

MVP 
Miguel Cabrera, Det
Prince Fielder, Det
Carlos Santana, Cle

Cy Young
 Justin Verlander, Det
Doug Fister, Det
Justin Masterson, Cle

Breakout Players
Chris Sale, Chi
Jason Kipnis, Cle
Mike Moustakas, KC


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Ten Predictions for Tigers Batters

Yesterday, I presented ten predictions for the Tigers pitching staff.  Today, I'll do the same for the batters:

• Catcher Alex Avila's batting average will drop from last year, but his power and walks will remain the same.  He'll be one of the top offensive catchers in the game with a .265/.360/.475 line.  The hard-working backstop will also improve his defense, specifically pitch blocking.

• New first baseman Prince Fielder will crush balls the same way in the American League as he did in the National League.  His final line will be .280/.395/.545 with 37 home runs. 

• The revolving door at second will continue again this year as the Tigers search for the right balance of offense and defense at the keystone position.  The enigmatic Ryan Raburn will get more action at second than anyone else, but Ramon Santiago and Dannny Worth will also play.  Raburn will finally put together two solid halves batting .270/.335/.470 with 20 homers in 475 plate appearances.  His poor second-base defense will compel manager Jim Leyland to also use him at designated hitter and in the outfield depending on pitching match-ups.

• There has been little talk about shortstop Johnny Peralta this spring which probably speaks well of him.  He won't repeat last year's performance but will still be an above average offensive shortstop batting .260 with 18 homers.

• As is his routine, Miguel Cabrera will have another boring MVP-caliber season at the plate - .330/.420/.590 with 35 home runs.  Defensively, he will be a poor third baseman, but will survive the season.  He will often see action at designated hitter when the Tigers have a ground ball pitcher on the mound.

• Right fielder Brennan Boesch will hit the way he did last year, except with more playing time.  He will be prone to streakiness, but look for him to bat .275 with 22 home runs in 525 at bats.

• Center fielder Austin Jackson will continue to strikeout (175 of them) and not get on base (.320 OBP) while playing excellent defense.  He will increase his power output to 15 homers and 50 extra base hits for the season.

• Delmon Young will split time between left field and designated hitter while batting in the enviable fifth position behind Cabrera and Fielder.  He will hit for an unspectacular .750 OPS but drive in 105 runs given the copious supply of base runners.  This will lead to lively debates between sabers and traditionalists regarding his true value.

•  The Tigers will struggle to get consistent production out of a ninth hitter.  Outfielder Andy Dirks will get the most opportunities reaching base at a .310 clip and hitting 13 homers in 250 at bats. 

• The Tigers will score 795 runs in 2012.  This will be fourth in the league behind four teams playing in better hitting environments - Yankees, Rangers and Red Sox. 

Ten Predictions for the Tigers Pitching Staff

With the regular season just one week away, it's time for my annual forecasts for the Tigers.  I'll start with ten predictions for the pitching staff:

• It doesn't take a complex projection system to figure out that Justin Verlander will have a difficult time repeating his Cy Young/ MVP performance of 2011.  He'll still be a dominant ace though with 250 strikeouts and a 2.75 ERA in 250 innings.  Since I know people will ask about wins, I'll go out on a sturdy limb and say he won't win 24 again this year.  Backed by a strong offense, he will reach an even 20 wins.

• Max Scherzer will continue to have periods when his mechanics are out of whack, but should be on his game more often in 2012.  I'll give him a 3.90 ERA with 175 strikeouts in 200 innings.

• Doug Fister will not be quite as good as his 1.79 ERA and 57/5 K/BB ratio down the stretch for the Tigers last year.  He won't even be as strong as his 2.89 ERA for the season.  He will however overcome a suspect infield defense to post a 3.50 ERA.  His 1.5 walks per nine innings will place him in the top three in the American League.

• It's easy to forget that Rick Porcello is just 23 year old with time to improve.  He will up his strikeout rate from 5.1 to 5.7 while maintaining very good ground ball and walk rates.  He will pitch deeper into games and reach 200 innings for the first time.  The ground ball pitcher will find the Tigers infield to be a challenge though and his ERA will be still be a little high at 4.25.

• The weak link of the Tigers rotation will be the fifth starter.  They will use several pitchers in that role beginning with Drew Smyly, but Jacob Turner will ultimately secure the role by the second half.  Turner will have his good moments, but will end up with a 4.50 ERA in 90 innings.

• Jose Valverde will not be perfect in save situations again this year, but he will be better in non-save situations.  He will finish with a 2.90 ERA and 45 saves in 50 opportunities.

• Joaquin Benoit will be the best Tigers reliever statistically in 2012 with a 70/20 K/BB ratio and 2.65 ERA.

• Octavio Dotel will do a nice job getting the game to Benoit and Valverde posting a 3.60 ERA in 60 innings.

• The rest of the bullpen will be shaky.  Al Alburquerque will battle to recover from elbow surgery, but won't be able to regain his 2011 magic.  Phil Coke will be the best southpaw in the pen but will be erratic with an ERA north of 4.00.

• The entire staff will allow 680 runs which will be a distant third best in the AL to the Angels and Rays. 

Albert Pujols Will Propel Angels to AL West Title

As opening day approaches, I'm making predictions for each of the six divisions in MLB.   I have projected won/loss records, runs scored (RS), runs allowed (RA) and run differential (RS-RA) for each team.  I don't have a complex formula to determine the results.  I just looked at last year's final numbers and moved teams up and down according to how much I thought they would regress or improve from last year to this year.

There is a big gap between the haves and have nots in the AL West.  The Angels and Rangers will vie for the division title, while the Athletics and Mariners will be among the worst in the league.  The Angels spent a fortune on Albert Pujols and C.J. Wilson and it should pay off handsomely.  Pujols will revitalize what was previously a sub-par line-up and they have one of the top rotations in baseball.  Look for them to dethrone the still powerful Rangers.

With one of the best line-ups in the American League, the Rangers should give the Angels a battle.  If Japanese import Yu Darvish lives and converted reliever Neftali Feliz immediately live up to their potential, Texas could very well repeat.  However, I'm picking them for a second place finish and a wild card. 

Projected AL West Standings

Team	W	L	RS	RA	RS-RA
Los Angeles Angels	95	67	739	605	134
Texas Rangers	93	69	832	708	124
Oakland Athletics	72	90	651	744	-93
Seattle Mariners	67	95	578	711	-133

Divisional Awards

MVP
Albert Pujols, LA
Ian Kinsler, Tex
Adrian Beltre, Tex

Cy Young
Felix Hernandez, Sea
Dan Haren, LA
Jered Weaver. LA

Breakout Players
Yu Darvish, Tex
Jesus Montero, Sea
Kendrys Morales, LA (comeback more than a breakout)

Blogs

I won't waste time trying to give detailed analyses of teams I don't follow on a daily basis.  These blogs can tell you more about the teams than I can:

Angels
Halos Heaven
Halo Hangout

Rangers
Lone Star Ball
Baseball Time in Arlington

Athletics
Athletics Nation
Swingin' A's

Mariners
Lookout Landing
U.S.S. Mariner