What to do about Gary Sheffield?

Gary Sheffield has had what should be a Hall of Fame career. In 2,417 games over 21 seasons, he is batting .294 with 2,564 hits and 485 homers. He has a lifetime OBP of .395, a .517 slugging percentage and a 142 OPS+. He has also played in nine all-star games and has finished in the top ten in MVP voting 7 times.

When the Tigers acquired Sheffield for three pitching prospects immediately after the 2006 season, they hoped that he would be the middle of the order hitter which they lacked in the second half of the season. They immediately signed him to a two year $28 million extension through 2009. After a slow start in April, 2007, he was one of the hottest hitters in the league for the next couple of months. His batting line for the first half of the season was .303/.410/.560.

However, he injured his shoulder in an outfield collision on July 21, 2007 and has not been the same since. He batted a woeful .203/.324/.299 after the all-star break last year. Off-season surgery does not seem to have helped much as he is batting .217/.323/.338 in 55 games this year. After spending time on the disabled list with an oblique strain , he appeared to be the Sheffield of old in a series versus the Cardinals lashing line drives all over the park for six hits and two homers including a walk off. It was short lived however and he is currently mired in an 8 for 49 slump with one extra base hit since June 26.

The former all-star appears to be pretty much done but his contract is not. None of the pitchers they traded for him has reached the majors and they don't appear to be headed towards great careers. The problem is Sheffield is owed about $20 million through the end of this year and next making it hard to release him or even bench him. He has been rested a couple of times recently with more time going to Matt Joyce, Clete Thomas, Marcus Thames and Jeff Larish. Joyce, Thomas, Thames and Ryan Raburn for that matter are all hitting considerably better than the 39 year old Sheffield but Gary is still the designated hitter most days and there has been no indication that this is going to change any time soon.

With Magglio Ordonez coming off the disabled list after the all-star break, the outfield/designated positions will become even more crowd. If he continues to struggle as he has, how long can they stay patient when superior options are available? The loyal Jim Leyland tends to stay faithful to his veterans through tough periods and there is the feeling among some that the Tigers will not be a serious contender down the stretch unless Sheffield gets hot. However, his problems have been going on for a year now and it is becoming increasingly apparent that he has little left in the tank.

What can they do? I think it's pretty clear that they won't be able to trade him. Would they release him? It's easy for fans to talk about cutting losses and dumping his salary but not so easy for Mike Illitch and Dave Dombrowski. I think he'll get more days off down the stretch but I don't think he'll be going away this year.

What about next year? Is it possible that he'll retire after the season? Not too many players walk away from $14 million so I don't know how likely that is. It would certainly help the Tigers if they could use that money to get some pitching help. Regardless, unless he suddenly finds himself down the stretch this year, I can't see the Tigers bringing him back next year. Playing out the end of a disappointing season is one thing but bringing him back to start a fresh new season is another.

For now though, I think we'll be watching Sheffield a little longer.

Talking about the Padres

Geoff Young, who writes the excellent Ducksnorts blog among other things, invited three Tigers bloggers - Billfer, Brian Borawski of Tiger Blog and myself - to participate in a round table discussion about the Tigers and Padres. I'm pretty sure most of you know Billfer and that many have read Brian's work. If you don't know Geoff, he is like the Billfer of the San Diego Padres and he has been blogging even longer. In fact, he started blogging before blogging was called blogging.

Anyway, Geoff asked us a bunch of questions about the Tigers and our answers are listed on Ducksnorts. In return, Geoff answered several of my questions about the Padres and they can be found below:

What has gone wrong with the Padres this year and can they still win the NL West?

The better question is, what hasn't gone wrong? For reasons that remain a mystery, catcher and shortstop have been complete black holes; Jim Edmonds was a disaster in center field; Jake Peavy and Chris Young have been hurt, although Peavy is back now; Trevor Hoffman has been inconsistent (and the rest of the bullpen has been even worse)... So a lot has gone wrong. On the bright side, the same can be said for the entire NL West. This is not the same division that saw an 89-win team denied a spot in the post-season; this is more like the 2005 version that sent an 82-win team to the playoffs. Remarkably, the Padres still have a chance to win this thing. They're still not playing great baseball, but they've improved. After dropping 14 of their first 17 series, they won 4 of their next 6 before heading to Yankee Stadium. The odds are long, but there is at least some hope.

I personally like the idea that Petco Park is one of the few new parks that challenges hitters more than pitchers. Do you think the park has been a particular advantage or disadvantage to the Padres?

It appeared to hurt the Padres the first few years. Some of the veteran power hitters seemed a bit intimidated by the dimensions. Last year, though, the Pads beat up on other teams at Petco Park. They haven't been quite as successful at home so far in 2008, but they've still been solid. The problem has been pitching on the road, which is a potential disadvantage of playing 81 games in a pitchers park -- sort of like how Rockies hitters used to fizzle once they left Coors Field. Interestingly, there's been virtually no difference between the Padres' offensive performance at Petco or away from it.

In the past, the Padres have done a great job building cheap bullpens. This year, they are last in the NL in bullpen ERA. What happened?

For as good as Kevin Towers has been at building a bullpen, I'm beginning to think that luck plays more of a factor than I'd realized. I'm not just saying that to excuse this year's performance, but to explain some of the past successes as well. Sometimes when you roll the dice, they come up Scott Linebrink and Akinori Otsuka, other times they come up Mike Matthews and Luther Hackman. Obviously Hoffman has slipped a bit, but so has Cla Meredith, a vital part of the bullpen the past couple years. Joe Thatcher, who was lights out down the stretch last season after coming over from Milwaukee in the Linebrink trade, has been an unmitigated disaster and now finds himself back at Triple-A. Basically a lot of things went wrong that haven't gone wrong in recent years. Fortunately the Padres have uncovered a couple of minor-league vets in Mike Adams and Bryan Corey, and they've helped stop the bleeding, at least for the moment.

Adrian Gonzalez has a .900+ OPS and is on a pace to hit over 40 homers. Do you expect him to level off or is this what we can expect from him this year and the next few years?

He's a stud. People don't know it because he plays in San Diego, but he's a stud. Gonzalez hits the ball with authority to all fields, and his power plays anywhere. He's also a Gold Glove caliber first baseman. Watch his footwork around the bag and how aggressive he is in trying to cut down the lead runner. If Gonzalez played in a larger, more visible market, he'd be a perennial MVP candidate. The only real chink in his armor is that he runs like he's got a couple of pianos on his back, but when you do everything else as well as he does, it's easy to forgive that.

When will Chase Headley be playing for the Padres and how good will he be?

He's just been recalled, and I'm assuming they didn't bring him up to ride pine. Once he settles in, Headley should be a solid big-league regular. There is some expectation of superstardom around here, but that isn't realistic. I'm thinking more along the lines of Mike Lowell, less the obligatory Red Sox hype.

Chris Young has been out of action since taking an Albert Pujols line drive off his head. How is he doing? Can we expect him back any time soon?

He still can't breathe through his nose. I'm hearing possibly around the All-Star break, possibly later. I think a lot is up in the air with Young at this point.

Luis Salazar or Champ Summers?

This basically boils down to porn 'stache or porn name. As much as I'd love to go with the name, Summers just didn't do much here. I'll choose the Padres' all-time leader in games played at third base, Salazar.

Is the season over? and other burning questions

The Tigers lost six of nine on their just completed western swing which included three games each in Los Angeles, Seattle and Oakland and are now 24-35 and eight games behind the first place White Sox. They are not hitting, their relief pitching is awful, and the fielding miscues and base running blunders continue. Is the season over?

No, the season is not over when you are 8 games behind on June 4.

When will it be over?

Very soon if they don't get going right now. It will be over if the White Sox or some other team gets hot and the Tigers continue to bumble along. Once they fall 10-12 games behind, it's going to be really tough to come back even if they get rolling later in the season. If they don't do well on the upcoming home stand, they might reach the point of no return.

Is there any reason to expect they will turn it around?

I don't really expect them to turn it around but it's not at the point where "it will take a miracle" to do so. Their starting pitching has been solid for three weeks posting a 3.98 ERA in their last 21 games. I also don't think their offense is going to continue to struggle as it has. Curtis Granderson, Miguel Cabrera and Edgar Renteria and maybe some others are likely to get better and there is nobody whose performance is likely to regress.

What will be their biggest hurdles?

There are a lot of problems with the team this year but the one that seems most difficult to fix is the bullpen. They have absolutely no reliable relievers on the team other than Todd Jones and he is only good for his narrow role of one inning closer on a team that doesn't give him many save opportunities. Poor infield defense is another fairly big problem but that could get a little better if Brandon Inge plays more third base and Cabrera continues to learn the first base position. Yeah, hitting has been a surprisingly big problem this year but I still think that can fix itself to an extent.

Won't the bullpen get better once Joel Zumaya and Fernando Rodney are ready later this month?

It should get better but both have had many health problems the last couple of years so there is no guarantee that they'll be in top form when they get back or that they'll stay healthy. The reports on both of them have been positive lately but I'm still skeptical.

Is Gary Sheffield going to help?

I think he's about done. He hasn't been healthy since last June and has hurt the team trying to play his way into shape. I wouldn't be surprised if he were released before the end of the year.

What's wrong with Miguel Cabrera?

I answered that yesterday.

What's wrong with Justin Verlander?

I don't know. His velocity was down early in the season but it has gotten better in recent starts. His command is still not that good, he's not striking batters out and walking too many. The results have been better as of late but he's still not in peak form. They need a big last two thirds of the season from him if they are going to have any chance of contending.

Edgar Renteria?

He seems to have gotten older in a hurry. His range, which was about average last year, seems to have declined some more this year and his offense has been awful. I do think he is better than a .667 OPS though. He should do better.

Will they be sellers at the trading deadline?

If they don't improve substantially, then yes. If they climb back close to .500 and are in striking distance of first place, then no.

Who might they be selling?

I don't envision a fire sale. I can't see them trading Granderson, Verlander, Cabrera (his contract would make him tough to move anyway) or Magglio Ordonez. Players who they might be willing to move and might bring back something of value are Nate Robertson, Jones, Renteria and Pudge Rodriguez. Placido Polanco is a possibility but I think they'll keep him. Carlos Guillen would be tough to move with his long term deal and there is no way they'll get anything for Sheffield.

Why not a firesale?

Because I still think they have a core of talent that can compete in the AL Central if they make the right acquisitions during the off-season and some players having bad seasons bounce back in 2009.

Clubhouse disharmony?

The story many fans have been expecting about broken team chemistry appeared this morning in the USA Today where Jason Grilli and some current Tigers cited clubhouse problems as the reasons for the Tigers poor play this year. Gary Sheffield, Brandon Inge and Carlos Guillen were also quoted. Ian summarizes everything and Billfer analyzes it. Unlike the Tigers perhaps, Ian and Billfer know their roles.

I agree with Billfer that the most disturbing quote came from supposed team leader Carlos Guillen:

"We never said we were going to win 100 games," Guillen says. "All we said was that we have a good team with good players. That was the (sports) media and fans doing the talking. "You don't win games looking good on paper. You've got to do it on the field. "That wasn't fair to us."

How are high expectations not fair for a team with a collection of all-stars and the third highest payroll in the majors? Guillen is not the greatest communicator and may not have expressed himself properly but it didn't sound very good. We had good reason to expect the team to be very successful this year.

Jim Leyland was not happy with any of the comments and he expressed himself in an obscenity laced rant later in the day. Jason Beck has the highlights in his blog. The audio can be found at 971theticket.com. Sometimes obscenity laced tirades can sound nasty but when Leyland does it, it's hilarious. He said the right things and sounded genuine but under control. He responded appropriately harshly to Grilli, Guillen and Inge (or maybe it was Sheffield) without actually naming names except for Grilli. If you don't mind a lot of bleeps, I recommend listening to the audio. I've already listened to it a few times myself.

This stuff is all entertaining but, in the end, it doesn't matter too much to me. Billfer echoed my feelings at the end of his post:

I don’t know what these guys do on a daily basis to prepare. I don’t know how much they care and I know I can’t tell by looking at them what is going on in their heads. I don’t know if they are lazy because of their contracts or if the only thing they care about is winning. I don’t know if they like each other or if they hate each other. I don’t know if they’ve tuned their manager out, or if they are trying too hard, or not trying hard enough. And frankly I don’t care. I just want to see them play some decent baseball damn-it.

Report from Lakeland

I arrived in Lakeland yesterday and was able to watch a night game in shorts and a tee shirt which is something I still can't do up north. The Lakeland Flying Tigers won 8-7 as the parent Tigers continued to lose. Rick Porcello pitches tonight so I'm looking forward to that.

I got a chance to see Joel Zumaya and Fernando Rodney working out this morning. Zumaya threw maybe about 60 pitches and didn't seem to be holding anything back. It appeared to be maximum effort with a healthy grunt on many of his pitches. Fernando Rodney threw fewer pitches than Zumaya but was throwing hard and looked smooth. I'm neither a scout nor a doctor but they both looked fine, no evidence of pain or discomfort.

Schuyler Williamson Interview

Mark Anderson at TigsTown has a very interesting interview with Schuyler Williamson , a former Tigers draftee, who left baseball to serve in the army. His experiences include 15 months in Iraq.

Sheffield batting sixth and playing left field

The drastic move has been made - Gary Sheffield is going to play left field and bat sixth. Huh?
WDFN has tonight's starting line-up and some quotes from Jim Leyland. Here is how they will line up:

Granderson cf

Polanco 2b

Guillen 3b

Ordonez dh

Cabrera 1b

Sheffield lf
Joyce rf

Renteria ss

Rodriguez c

It was apparently Sheffield's idea to play left field as he thinks it will help his offense. I'm skeptical whether playing left is going to help him at the plate. I'm pretty sure it's not going to help them defensively as Magglio Ordonez is a better fielder and he will be the designated hitter.

At this point, it looks like a desperate move to me. There are a couple of scenarios where it might make sense though. If Sheffield does ok in left field, it might allow them to move Carlos Guillen to designated hitter and Brandon Inge to third base. For now though, Leyland wants Guillen to be the third baseman. The other possibility is that it might allow for a rotating designated hitter where they can use the spot to spell different players rather than always having Sheffield there.

The most puzzling thing about the change is that I am surprised they feel that Sheffield is healthy enough to play in the field. It seems pretty risky to have a player recovering from a shoulder injury to be playing left field where he'll have to make long throws and possibly crash into walls.

Baseball Race and Integration Symposium

The Detroit Chapter of the Society for American Baseball Research (SABR) is hosting a big event this weekend. The Baseball Race and Integration Symposium will look at integration at the major league level.

The itinerary includes a bus tour of historic Detroit baseball sites on Saturday. On Sunday, there is a brunch and panel discussions at the Marriott hotel. Participants include Willie Horton, Gates Brown, Mickey Briggs, Don Lund, Jim Rile, and others.

The event is open to everyone and there is a raffle that is coinciding with the event. They are also still looking for sponsors so if you have a business and wish to sponsor the event, please let them know.

Cabrera to first, Guillen to third

After the game tonight, Jim Leyland announced that Miguel Cabrera is moving to first base and that Carlos Guillen is moving to third. He said "I have a major announcement to make" twice before giving us the news. He then refused to discuss it any further. It certainly was a major announcement and a big surprise but also a move I think can work out well.

Cabrera to first is a move for which I've been campaigning for a while so obviously I'm happy about that. it's been apparent that his off-season conditioning program has not helped his range which was among the worst in the majors for third basemen last year. Cabrera moving to first is something I figured would happen eventually but I wasn't expecting it this year.

I also was not expecting Guillen to move to third this year even if Cabrera was moved to first. I had envisioned Gary Sheffield going to the DL, Brandon Inge going to third, Cabrera moving to first and Guillen moving to DH. The Guillen switch to third does make sense though for two reasons: (1) he has not adjusted to first base very well. (2) he has played third before in Seattle. However, it's also true that Guillen is not the same defender he was a few years ago. He should have more mobility than Cabrera but he had trouble making throws from short to first last year so it remains to be seen how well he will handle the move to third

Leyland loses patience

A lot of fans have been saying the manager needed to yell at his team and today it happened. Like the rest of us, Jim Leyland is fed up with the way the team has started the season and apparently today's game was the final straw. In fact, Leyland said there was one particular event which set him off:

"I finally got ticked off to where I didn't hold it in,'' Leyland admitted. "There was one thing that sticks out, and that was the straw that broke the camel's back.''

Leyland didn't say what it was but Danny Knobler suggested that it could be that they seemed to give up after they fell behind 11-0:

Leyland wouldn't say what that one thing was, but past explosions have been set off by a feeling that the Tigers gave in when they got down in a game. Sunday, after Joe Crede's sixth-inning grand slam gave the White Sox a double-digit lead, the Tigers made the next nine outs on just 24 pitches.

Billfer theorizes that it could have been Zach Miner's control problems leading up the White Sox second grand slam. My theory is that it really wasn't one thing but something that had built up and that Leyland used one particular event (whatever it was) as an example because the message sounds more genuine that way. In actuality, none of us knows what set him off and the only thing that matters is that they start playing a lot better.

Most of us remember his most famous tirade early in his tenure as Tigers manager. Many have credited that outburst with their great 2006 season. I never bought into that notion although I admit it may helped a little just because they had never seen him like that before and he caught them by surprise. Will his latest tongue lashing help? I don't know if one team meeting can cure all that ails them right now but, if nothing else, they certainly deserved a scolding the way they've been playing.

The Mitchell Report

I got trapped in a snow storm today and ended up with a five hour commute from work (it usually takes 50 minutes). I spent the whole trip listening to The Mitchell Report press conferences on XM. They were not among the most exciting five hours of my life and I didn't learn a lot about the steroid problem that I didn't already know or strongly suspect. I have only skimmed the report so far though so there might be more in there than I've heard. The complete report is provided by MLB.COM and can be found here.

Mitchell said that steroid and human growth hormone use has been widespread in the game for a long time and that everybody - players, the union, owners, team personnel - needs to share the blame. That much was good to hear as I'm always believed that MLB and the union were just as guilty as the players and were very slow to address the steroid problem until Congess forced them to move. Mitchell recommended that the Commissioner's office not punish players for their past actions except in cases where the offense was serious enough to threaten the integrity of the game. He stressed that they should be looking forward and focus on stopping steroid use in the future. In particular, he recommended stronger drug testing procedures.

The only current Tiger included in the report was Gary Sheffield which is not really news. Sheffield is already a controversial figure so I doubt that his inclusion in the report is going to have much affect on the the Tigers next season. Former Tigers mentioned include Rondell White, Fernando Vina, Nook Logan, Mark Carreon, Phil Hiatt, and Hal Morris

Plans and Links

I've been very busy with another baseball project (which you'll find out about later) but I'll get back to my off-season sabermetric analysis shortly. I have done a few analyses of the batting already. The pitching data is now ready and I'll start those analyses this week. As I did the last couple of years, I will rank all the players in baseball using a system that combines all the fielding metrics. I still have a lot of data entry to do though. Finally, I'll look at base running once the retrosheet play by play database is ready.

For today, I'm including links to do great analyses of the Tigers fielding in 2007 versus 2008. Bill Ferris and Mark Anderson both think that the Tigers have improved their defense significantly this off-season and I agree.

Ordonez Second in MVP Voting

The results of the American League MVP voting were released today and, as expected, Magglio Ordonez finished second to Alex Rodriguez. Rodriguez was the near unanimous winner garnering all but two first place votes. Two hometown writers, Tom Gage and Jim Hawkins, reportedly gave their first place votes to Ordonez. However, Rodriguez clearly deserved the award this year despite Magglio's magnificent season.

Ordonez had the better batting average (.363 to .314) but Rodriguez topperd him in most other categories including runs created (154 to 142), OPS (1.067 to 1.029), homers (54 to 28), RBI (156 to 139) and runs (143 to 117). For those who consider this to be a team award as well as an individual award, Rodriguez also helped get the Yankees into the playoffs while the Tigers stayed home. There could be no other winner this year but ARod.

Others Tiger receiving votes were Curtis Granderson (1oth place) and Placido Polanco (19th). Personally, I would have ranked Granderson a little higher but he was probably hurt by his relatively new star status, his team failing to make the post-season and competition for votes with two teammates. I certainly would not hold any of that against him but might knock him down a notch for his inability to hit left-handers and his occasional platooning.

Ordonez is Tigers player of the year

Last year, Magglio Ordonez created one of the most memorable moments in Detroit Tigers history with his home run which sent the Tigers to the World Series for the first time since 1984. This year, he had one of the greatest seasons in Tigers history and has been unanimously awarded the Tigers Player of the Year award by the Detroit chapter of the Baseball Writers' Association of America.

Hitting a robust .363, he was the first Tiger to win a batting title since Norm Cash in 1961. He also finished among the top five in the American League with a .434 OBP, .595 slugging average, 1.029 OPS, 54 doubles, 139 RBI and 117 runs. In another year, his numbers might have been worthy of an MVP but he will likely finish behind Alex Rodriguez of the Yankees who had an even better year for a team that reached post-season.

With 73 Runs Created Above Average (RCAA), Magglio's season ranked among the best in the history of the franchise. It was the 15th most RCAA ever for a Tiger and the most since Norm Cash had 113 in 1961.

Most of the focus has been on Ordonez's offense but his glove has been overlooked by some. The long haired right fielder had the highest Revised Zone Rating in the league and finished among the top 10 in the majors in the Fielding Bible Award voting. It was my observation that his fielding actually seemed to improve as much as his hitting. Last year, he seemed to be tentative about his previously injured knee and did not move well at all. This year, he appeared much more confident getting to almost every ball he should and making a number of sliding catches.

This year was an unexpected surprise, as he previously appeared to be on the decline with decreasing power and a bad knee at 33 years old. Since he is signed through at least 2009 and likely 2011 (two vested option years based on at bats), I feared they might get stuck with a bad contract. We still might see a bad year or two at the back end but with Ordonez appearing healthy and reinvigorated, the immediate future looks bright.

Red Sox are champs

Congratulations to the Red Sox on their second world championship in four years. It's sometimes difficult being a Tiger fan surrounded by Red Sox fans in Massachusetts but the Red Sox deserved it this year. They had a strong well balanced team in all phases of the game and they showed it in the playoffs. The best team won this year. With a strong core of young players including Josh Beckett, Daisuke Matsuzaka, Jon Lester, Clay Bucholz, Jon Pabelbon, Dustin Pedroia and Jacoby Ellsbury, they have a great future ahead of them as well. They also have an excellent front office led by Theo Epstein as well as plenty of money to spend. Like it or not, they are going to be a tough tough team in the American League for a long time.

Congratulations also to the Rockies. They were no match for the Red Sox in the World Series but they had an amazing run just to get there. They are not a fluke team and with a core of Matt Holliday, Troy Tulowitzki, Jeff Francis, Ubaldo Jimenez, Jeff Francis and others, we should expect to see them in contention again in the future.

Tiger Tales off-season plans

Tigers Tales reached its second anniversary today. I never thought I'd keep it going for this long but it has now gotten to the the point where it would be pretty hard to give it up. The regular season is a challenge as this is a sabermetric blog more than anything else and it's hard to find time to watch games and do analysis during the summer. Plus, this season was not quite as exciting as last. Thanks to all readers who kept reading my blog all season even when it when it became apparent that the Tigers were not going to make it to post-season.

I have been watching the playoffs but haven't been talking about it because bloggers who cover their teams every day can do a better job of informing people about the playoffs than I can this year. However, the off-season is my favorite time for blogging because that's when I do the bulk of my statistical analyses and that is where I feel I can contribute most to the Tigers blogosphere.

Although this is an analytical blog, it is also a Tigers blog and my audience is not necessarily the same as that of the Baseball Prospectus or The Hardball Times or any of the other hardcore sabermetric sites. I try to gear my blog towards intelligent baseball fans who are interested in statistical analysis but may not have the time or the inclination to keep up with all the latest sabermetric trends. Or even the old ones for that matter. Although I sometimes try to develop new statistics and methods, I generally leave that up to the pure sabermetric sites. Instead, my main goal is to help readers get more engaged in statistical analysis of baseball.

With that in mind, I plan do many of the same analyses as I have in past years as well as some new ones. I will also do my best to keep up with the day to day news. This will include the following:

• My usual sabermetric 101 type articles and analyses which I do in the fall in early winter. I've already started the runs created stuff.

• The annual defensive rankings.
  

• Re-visiting the base running data again this year.

• I will continue playing around with the retrosheet pitch by pitch database again this year and hopefully find something new of interest.

• An article or two on Tigers history.
  

• updates on rumors, transactions, injuries and anything else that happens to the Tigers this off-season.

Guillen will be the First Baseman in 2008

According to Danny Knobler, Jim Leyland announced today that Carlos Guillen will be the Tigers first baseman in 2008. Guillen had already been playing quite a bit of first base this year (35 games) especially in the second half but it was not certain whether it was going to turn into a permanent role. He had a lot of problems defensively this year making 24 errors at shortstop and finishing in the bottom third of the majors in range metrics.

However, Guillen had said on a couple of occasions that he wanted to continue playing shortstop unless they got a really good replacement. He is still suggesting that the replacement will be a good one.

``I know they'll bring in a good (shortstop),'' Guillen said. ``I know it's going to be a good one. I don't know who it's going to be, but I know it's going to be a good one.''

Of course, it should be noted that Guillen said in the past that Cesar Izturis would be a good replacement. Who does Leyland think will play shortstop next year?

``I have no idea,'' Leyland said.

I'm torn as to whether or not I like this move. On one hand, Guillen's defense hurt them at an important position this year. On the other hand, he goes from being a great hitting shortstop to a pretty good hitting first basemen. It's generally easier to find a good hitting first baseman than a good hitting shortstop. I think I'll decide whether I think this is a good move after I learn who the new shortstop is going to be.

The move means that Sean Casey no longer has a starting job and likely won't be with the Tigers next year. He's a popular guy on the team and I can certainly see why but wasn't productive enough so it's no surprise that he probably won't be back. Casey is batting .297 but does not hit for any power at a position where you expect a lot of pop.

Along with a shortstop, I imagine that they'll be in the market for a left fielder and probably one who bats left handed. There will be a lot of speculation as to who they might pick up but I'm going to wait until I get a better idea of who might be available.

Tigers Among Batting Leaders

With the Tigers now officially eliminated from the post-season, it's time to focus on individual stats and they've got some good ones. Every Tigers fan knows that Magglio Ordonez is closing in on the batting title but they've got players in the top 3 in many categories.

OPS
Rodriguez NY 1.055
Ortiz Bos 1.045
Ordonez Det 1.022

Runs Created
Rodriguez NY 149.2
Ordonez Det 137.1
Ortiz Bos 136.1

RC/27 outs
Ortiz Bos. 9.78
Rodriguez NY 9.46
Ordonez Det 9.21

On Base Percentage
Ortiz Bos .440
Ordonez Det .430
Posada NY .423

Batting Average
Ordonez Det 3.59
Suzuki Sea .350
Polanco Det .340

Total Bases
Rodriguez NY 367
Ordonez Det 347
Granderson Det 333

Extra Base Hits
Ortiz Bos 84
Granderson Det 83
Rodriguez NY 83

Doubles
Ordonez Det 52
Ortiz Bos 50
Hill Tor 46

Triples
Granderson Det 23
Guillen Det 9
Crawford TB 9
DeJesus KC 9
Iwamura TB 9

BB/K
Polanco Det 1.28
Sheffield Det 1.22
Kotchman LA 1.21

More Curtis Granderson and Other Notes

Curtis Granderson is in the news again today:

• He was the Tigers nominee for the Roberto Clemente Award which is given to a player who combines excellent baseball skills with dedicated community service. Grandy has done extensive work in the Detroit schools among other things. You can vote for him at MLB.COM.

• Tigers fans know all about Grandy closing in on the quadruple 20. Tim Kurkjian of ESPN talks about his noteworthy stat line.
  

• He also did a chat with fans today. You need ESPN insider to read it.

In other news:

• Danny Knobler talks about a possible problem with Jeremy Bonderman's elbow. Bonderman and Jim Leyland say that it is just a little soreness and that he'll be OK for his next start. Some of his teammates are not so sure. Billfer has already given his thoughts on this issue and my reaction is the same so I'll just point you to DTW.

• Magglio Ordonez was out of the line-up tonight with a sore heel but is expected to be back tomorrow.

Back From Vacation

No, I haven't given up on the Tigers. I just got back from Vermont where I had no internet access for the weekend. I did have cable in my hotel room and XM in my car but the only inning I actually heard was the 9th inning on Sunday and I wish I hadn't. Because I saw so little, it would be pointless for me to try to offer any analysis of the last 2 games. Sunday's game was a killer though especially given that they had a chance to gain on the 3 teams they are trying to catch.

They are now down by 6 games in the AL Central so a division title is not looking too realistic right now. The wild card looks like a better opportunity. the Yankees lead the wild card by a game over the Mariners and 2 1/2 games over the Tigers. The Yankees have been the strongest of the 3 teams since the all-star break but their shaky pitching staff makes them vulnerable. The Mariners don't look very strong to me. I think the Tigers can win this thing if they finish strong.

What I'm not too confident about is the Tigers finishing strong. They have gone 16-28 since July 19. That's more than a quarter of the season which is a pretty long "slump". They are not healthy. They are not playing consistently well in any phase of the game. They have resorted to desperate measures such as promoting the exciting but very raw and unready 20 year old Cameron Maybin. Jim Leyland is juggling unproven rookies and mediocre backup outfielders in the third spot of the line-up. Ramon Santiago is their new starting shortstop. This is a move of which I approve give the alternatives but the fact that they have forced into such a move shows how the season has unraveled.

Up next is a 3 game series against a team that has actually played as poorly as the Tigers over the last month and a half. The last place Chicago White Sox come to Comerica having lost 8 out of 10. Game one will be tomorrow night with Jeremy Bonderman facing Jon Garland. A lot of things need to go right if the Tigers are going to get into the playoffs. One of those things is a strong finish by Bonderman. Hopefully, he can build on his strong performance versus the Royals last week.