There is no surefire way to determine the best pitchers in the league, but a pitcher's job is to prevent runs. So, it's useful to estimate how many runs pitchers saved their teams compared to an average pitcher. In the past, I have explored four different ways to do this:
- Pitching Runs - Runs Saved Above Average based on innings and runs allowed.
- Adjusted Pitching Runs - Pitching Runs minus estimated Runs allowed by fielders.
- Base Runs - Runs Saved Above Average based on batters faced and hits, walks, total bases and home runs allowed.
- FIP Runs - Runs Saved Above Average based on innings, bases on balls, hit batsmen and home runs allowed and strikeouts.
The 2015 National League leaders as of June 22 are listed in Table 1 below. Former Tigers right hander, now of the Nationals, Max Scherzer leads the league in all the above categories - Pitching Runs (24), Adjusted Pitching Runs (26), Base Runs (24) and FIP Runs (25). That gives him an aggregate of 25 runs prevented compared to an average pitcher. Zach Greinke of the Dodgers is second with 18 runs prevented.
Table 1: NL Run Prevention Leaders, 2014
Pitcher
|
Team
|
IP
|
Pitching
Runs
|
Adjusted
Pitching Runs
|
Base
Runs
|
FIP
Runs
|
Average
|
Max
Scherzer
|
WSN
|
102.1
|
24
|
26
|
24
|
25
|
25
|
Zack
Greinke
|
LAD
|
94.2
|
23
|
21
|
17
|
11
|
18
|
Gerrit
Cole
|
PIT
|
91
|
18
|
17
|
16
|
15
|
16
|
A.J.
Burnett
|
PIT
|
92.1
|
18
|
18
|
11
|
14
|
15
|
Jacob
deGrom
|
NYM
|
92.1
|
15
|
15
|
18
|
13
|
15
|
Shelby
Miller
|
ATL
|
90.1
|
17
|
17
|
15
|
8
|
15
|
Chase
Anderson
|
ARI
|
79.1
|
11
|
12
|
9
|
10
|
10
|
Cole
Hamels*
|
PHI
|
94.1
|
11
|
15
|
9
|
6
|
10
|
Francisco
Liriano
|
PIT
|
88.1
|
8
|
7
|
15
|
11
|
10
|
Michael
Wacha
|
STL
|
88.1
|
11
|
9
|
11
|
9
|
10
|
Johnny
Cueto
|
CIN
|
90.2
|
10
|
9
|
11
|
9
|
10
|
Jake
Arrieta
|
CHC
|
91
|
7
|
9
|
10
|
13
|
10
|
Matt
Harvey
|
NYM
|
93.1
|
10
|
9
|
9
|
6
|
9
|
Jason
Hammel
|
CHC
|
84
|
6
|
7
|
11
|
10
|
9
|
Clayton
Kershaw*
|
LAD
|
100
|
5
|
3
|
12
|
14
|
8
|
Madison
Bumgarner
|
SFG
|
93.1
|
11
|
7
|
9
|
6
|
8
|
Carlos
Martinez
|
STL
|
80.1
|
11
|
10
|
5
|
4
|
7
|
Mike
Bolsinger
|
LAD
|
53.1
|
7
|
6
|
6
|
5
|
6
|
Lance
Lynn
|
STL
|
73.1
|
7
|
6
|
2
|
10
|
6
|
Dan
Haren
|
MIA
|
87.1
|
9
|
9
|
6
|
-3
|
6
|
John
Lackey
|
STL
|
89.2
|
5
|
4
|
5
|
6
|
5
|
Aaron
Harang
|
PHI
|
95
|
3
|
7
|
6
|
2
|
5
|
Brett
Anderson*
|
LAD
|
82
|
7
|
5
|
4
|
3
|
4
|
Tyson
Ross
|
SDP
|
89.2
|
2
|
2
|
1
|
10
|
4
|