On Tuesday, I gave an overview of the Tiger’s 2005 season and a summary of the moves made in the off-season. Today, in Part 2 of my preview, I will forecast the 2006 season for the Tiger’s offense. Later, I will look at pitching and defense.
Last year, the Tigers finished 11th in the league with 723 runs scored. They ranked 4th in batting, 7th in homeruns (and in isolated power) but last in walks and 12th in OBP. This year, assuming a significant amount of DL time but not as much as last year, I think they will remain near the top of the league in batting average and add about 15-20 home runs. Although, they will continue to have some trouble getting walks, I think they will finish closer to the middle of the league in OBP. This should translate into about 50-60 more runs than last year. They won’t be an elite offensive team but they will not finish 11th in the league in runs either. In fact, they should be above average offensively.
Player capsules and projections for 2006 along with 2005 statistics are presented below. I’ve got a capsule for each player on the projected opening day roster. A couple of the players I have listed on the bench might be replaced before the season starts but Ramon Santiago making the team instead of Nook Logan (or any other similar move) is not going to affect my forecast much so I’m not going to worry about that.
Catcher: Ivan Rodriguez
A much slimmer Rodriguez experienced more than the typical decline of a 33 year old catcher last in 2005. His OBP dropped 93 points from 2004 with the biggest culprit being his astoundingly low 11 walks. He needs to do better than that in 2006 and I think he will. I’m not expecting a return to his pre-2005 form but I do expect somewhat of a rebound.
| Year | G | BA | OBP | SLG | HR |
| 2005 | 129 | .276 | .290 | .444 | 14 |
| 2006 Projected | 125 | .289 | .328 | .456 | 15 |
First baseman: Chris Shelton
| Year | G | BA | OBP | SLG | HR |
| 2005 | 107 | .299 | .360 | .510 | 18 |
| 2006 Projected | 150 | .305 | .372 | .500 | 25 |
Second baseman: Placido Polanco
| Year | G | BA | OBP | SLG | HR |
| 2005 | 129 | .331 | .383 | .447 | 9 |
| 2006 Projected | 143 | .309 | .360 | .438 | 10 |
Shortstop: Carlos Guillen
Guillen’s 2004 season was close to MVP caliber until he hurt his knee in September. He never fully recovered from the injury last year and managed to play only 87 games. He’s never been a 150 game player but early indications are that he’s fully recovered this year and should be able to play in a lot more games. I think it would be a little too much wishful thinking to expect him to match his 2004 numbers but he should be one of their best hitters again in 2006.
| Year | G | BA | OBP | SLG | HR |
| 2005 | 87 | .320 | .368 | .434 | 5 |
| 2006 Projected | 130 | .300 | .364 | .448 | 12 |
Third baseman: Brandon Inge
The enigmatic Inge started out strong last year but had a miserable second half. Some see the second half as a return to his old ways prior to 2004 but I think it might have something to do with his wearing down in his first truly full season. After all, he accumulated over 200 plate appearances more than he’s ever had. I think the 2006 version of Inge will fall somewhere between the two extremes of 2005.
| Year | G | BA | OBP | SLG | HR |
| 2005 | 160 | .261 | .330 | .419 | 16 |
| 2006 Projected | 142 | .268 | .328 | .414 | 14 |
Left fielder: Craig Monroe
| Year | G | BA | OBP | SLG | HR |
| 2005 | 157 | .277 | .322 | .446 | 20 |
| 2006 Projected | 149 | .280 | .325 | .462 | 20 |
Center fielder: Curtis Granderson
Granderson hit well in his late season call-up in 2005 and I think that is a preview of things to come. He did not walk as much as I’d like but his minor league track record suggests that getting on base should not be a problem in the future. Granderson is one of my favorite young Tigers in many years and I expect him to be a solid all around player for a long time.
| Year | G | BA | OBP | SLG | HR |
| 2005 | 47 | .272 | .314 | .494 | 8 |
| 2006 Projected | 148 | .286 | .347 | .460 | 20 |
Right fielder: Magglio Ordonez
After missing most of 2004 with a serious knee injury, Ordonez missed the first half of 2005 with a hernia. He should be healthy again in 2006 and will likely be one of the team’s best hitters. However, he’s getting older and he’s been banged up quite a bit so I don’t expect him to be quite the same hitter he was three years ago.
| Year | G | BA | OBP | SLG | HR |
| 2005 | 82 | .302 | .359 | .436 | 8 |
| 2006 Projected | 138 | .298 | .362 | .490 | 23 |
Designated hitter: Dmitri Young
Various injuries and weight problems seem to have reduced Young to an average hitting designated hitter. Young lost some weight in the off season and there is hope that he’ll be heathier and more versatile in 2006. However, he’s 32 years old, and a big guy with a history of muscle pulls and other various injuries. I’m afraid I’m not that optimistic about him staying healthy and having a big rebound year.
| Year | G | BA | OBP | SLG | HR |
| 2005 | 126 | .271 | .325 | .471 | 21 |
| 2006 Projected | 110 | .265 | .326 | .452 | 15 |
Backup Catcher: Vance Wilson
| Year | G | BA | OBP | SLG | HR |
| 2005 | 61 | .197 | .275 | .283 | 3 |
| 2006 Projected | 67 | .235 | .297 | .348 | 4 |
Backup Infielder: Omar Infante
Infante will probably play the supersub role and I believe he’ll hit better this year. I think he’ll come closer to his 2004 numbers than his 2005 numbers.
| Year | G | BA | OBP | SLG | HR |
| 2005 | 121 | .222 | .254 | .367 | 9 |
| 2006 Projected | 120 | .256 | .305 | .410 | 11 |
Backup Outfielder: Nook
With Granderson taking over in center field,
| Year | G | BA | OBP | SLG | HR |
| 2005 | 129 | .262 | .305 | .335 | 1 |
| 2006 Projected | 65 | .255 | .306 | .332 | 0 |
Backup first baseman/designated hitter:Carlos Pena
We all know how streaky Pena can be but I think they need his left-handed bat off the bench. I believe he’ll settle into a reduced role against right-handers and be more valuable as a part-timer.
| Year | G | BA | OBP | SLG | HR |
| 2005 | 79 | .235 | .325 | .477 | 18 |
| 2006 Projected | 85 | .245 | .335 | .465 | 17 |
I realize 12 HR's for Guilen would be his second best career total. But, if he's healthy, I think he's more of a 16-20 guy.
ReplyDeleteI think "pretty good" trade for Poalnco is much too mild. That was the steal of the year.
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ReplyDeleteVince, I agree the trade was a steal. I used the phrase "pretty good" for effect. I guess it didn't work. :-)
ReplyDeleteAll of your predictions seem pretty spot on to me-- I think maggs will definately be closer to his 2003 numbers- Your Shelton numbers are along the lines of what I was thinking as well- I just wonder where Leyland will bat him in the order-- Cause with his control he could easliy knock in a 100 this season- Leyland has said his line-up will change from day to day so we'll see- But, shelton definately needs to be close to the clean-up spot with Maggs--
ReplyDeleteRegarding Monroe, there's been some talk that his swing has been reworked. His swing has always seemed slow and a little too effortless to me. I am intrigued to see how his swing has been altered and whether or not it yields better results.
ReplyDeleteLots of comments today. Thanks.
ReplyDeleteI'd love to see Monroe improve this year. He's been a pretty good stop gap but I suspect this might be his last year with the Tigers. He'll start to get expensive soon and they really seem to be impressed with Clevlen. Clevlen is another interesting player to watch this year.