Comments Fixed

I got several comments over the last couple of weeks but I couldn't see any of them because my settings were incorrect. I think it's fixed now. Since I like to respond to comments, I'll try go back and answer as many as I can a little later.

FIP Analysis: Tiger Relievers Worse than their ERAs

In my previous post, I did a FIP analysis of American League starting pitchers in 2005. Today, I’ll look at the relievers. There were 103 primary relievers (more relief appearances than starts) with 30 or more innings pitched in 2005. The first table below lists Detroit Tiger relievers in 2005 plus Todd Jones. The second table lists all 103 qualifiers in the league.

In both tables, the key variables are ERA, FIP ERA and FIP-ERA. All are defined in the previous article linked above. Since relievers pitch fewer innings than starters, all of these statistics are less reliable for relievers and should be interpreted with a little more caution.

The Tiger’s best relief pitcher last year was Kyle Farnsworth (4^th in the league with a FIP ERA of 2.27). His actual ERA (2.32) was almost the same.

Of those pitchers still on the team heading into 2006, most had FIP ERAs which were substantially higher than their actual ERAs. This includes Fernando Rodney (3.93 versus 2.86), Jamie Walker (4.09 versus 3.70), Craig Dingman ( 4.53 versus 3.66), Chris Spurling (4.82 versus 3.44) and Franklyn German (5.40 versus 3.66). Since FIP ERA is a better predictor of future performance than actual ERA, this may not be a good sign for next year. Keep in mind though that the sample sizes for relievers are small. It’s interesting to note that most of these relievers received more fielding support than the average Tiger starter.

Recently acquired reliever Todd Jones had a good year whether you look at FIP ERA (2.36) or actual ERA (2.10). He is not included in the list of qualifiers because he was in the National League last year.

FIP Rnk	Name	Team	IP	ERA	FIP	DER	FIP- ERA
4	Farnsworth	DET	42.7	2.32	2.27	.711	-0.05
32	Rodney	DET	44.0	2.86	3.93	.714	1.06
42	Walker	DET	48.7	3.70	4.09	.722	0.39
62	Dingman	DET	32.0	3.66	4.53	.719	0.88
77	Spurling	DET	70.7	3.44	4.82	.779	1.38
91	Ginter	DET	35.0	6.17	5.38	.656	-0.79
92	German	DET	59.0	3.66	5.40	.696	1.74
NA	Jones	FLA	73.0	2.10	2.36	.716	0.26

FIP Rnk	Name	Team	IP	ERA	FIP	DER	FIP- ERA
1	Ryan	BAL	70.3	2.43	2.15	.684	-0.28
2	Rivera	NYA	78.3	1.38	2.19	.762	0.82
3	Nathan	MIN	70.0	2.70	2.25	.735	-0.45
4	Farnsworth	DET	42.7	2.32	2.27	.711	-0.05
5	Rincon	MIN	77.0	2.45	2.50	.695	0.05
6	Rhodes	CLE	43.3	2.08	2.58	.735	0.50
7	Betancourt	CLE	67.7	2.79	2.62	.706	-0.17
8	Cabrera	CLE	30.7	1.47	2.67	.723	1.20
9	Jenks	CHA	39.3	2.75	2.73	.687	-0.01
10	Timlin	BOS	80.3	2.24	2.74	.676	0.50
11	Street	OAK	78.3	1.72	2.79	.754	1.07
12	Duchscherer	OAK	85.7	2.21	2.88	.733	0.67
13	Shields	LAA	91.7	2.75	2.91	.738	0.16
14	Escobar	LAA	59.7	3.02	2.98	.730	-0.04
15	Cotts	CHA	60.3	1.94	3.00	.763	1.06
16	Howry	CLE	73.0	2.47	3.12	.785	0.65
17	Rodriguez	LAA	67.3	2.67	3.14	.745	0.46
18	Cordero	TEX	69.0	3.39	3.19	.696	-0.20
19	MacDougal	KC	70.3	3.33	3.28	.675	-0.05
20	Brocail	TEX	73.3	5.52	3.31	.638	-2.21
21	Schoeneweis	TOR	57.0	3.32	3.54	.705	0.22
22	Calero	OAK	55.7	3.23	3.62	.743	0.39
23	Schilling	BOS	93.3	5.69	3.67	.629	-2.02
24	Gordon	NYA	80.7	2.57	3.72	.766	1.15
25	Hermanson	CHA	57.3	2.04	3.76	.757	1.72
26	Villone	SEA	40.3	2.45	3.76	.710	1.30
27	Guardado	SEA	56.3	2.72	3.77	.732	1.06
28	Politte	CHA	67.3	2.00	3.79	.799	1.79
29	Hasegawa	SEA	66.7	4.18	3.80	.726	-0.39
30	Orvella	TB	50.0	3.60	3.82	.709	0.22
31	Sisco	KC	75.3	3.11	3.83	.695	0.73
32	Rodney	DET	44.0	2.86	3.93	.714	1.06
33	Burgos	KC	63.3	3.98	3.95	.684	-0.03
34	Ray	BAL	40.7	2.66	3.95	.729	1.29
35	Benoit	TEX	87.0	3.72	3.99	.752	0.27
36	Guerrier	MIN	71.7	3.39	4.00	.714	0.61
37	Snyder	KC	36.0	6.75	4.01	.618	-2.74
38	Camp	KC	49.0	6.43	4.02	.637	-2.41
39	Affeldt	KC	49.7	5.25	4.03	.671	-1.23
40	Frasor	TOR	74.7	3.25	4.04	.711	0.79
41	Williams	BAL	76.3	3.30	4.06	.731	0.76
42	Walker	DET	48.7	3.70	4.09	.722	0.39
43	Speier	TOR	66.7	2.56	4.14	.789	1.58
44	Loe	TEX	92.0	3.42	4.15	.733	0.73
45	Borowski	TB	35.3	3.82	4.19	.785	0.37
46	Myers	BOS	37.3	3.13	4.19	.759	1.05
47	Donnelly	LAA	65.3	3.72	4.20	.729	0.48
48	Baez	TB	72.3	2.86	4.24	.729	1.38
49	Sauerbeck	CLE	35.7	4.04	4.24	.684	0.20
50	Wasdin	TEX	75.7	4.28	4.28	.722	0.00
51	Kennedy	OAK	60.7	4.45	4.33	.702	-0.12
52	Batista	TOR	74.7	4.10	4.35	.703	0.25
53	Papelbon	BOS	34.0	2.65	4.36	.678	1.71
54	Downs	TOR	94.0	4.31	4.37	.712	0.06
55	Nelson	SEA	36.7	3.93	4.40	.718	0.47
56	Wilson	TEX	48.0	6.94	4.42	.648	-2.52
57	Halama	BOS	43.7	6.18	4.46	.677	-1.72
58	Mateo	SEA	88.3	3.06	4.47	.757	1.41
59	Davis	CLE	40.3	4.69	4.48	.675	-0.21
60	Riske	CLE	72.7	3.10	4.49	.790	1.40
61	Marte	CHA	45.3	3.77	4.50	.661	0.72
62	Dingman	DET	32.0	3.66	4.53	.719	0.88
63	Baldwin	BAL	39.3	3.20	4.54	.754	1.33
64	Putz	SEA	60.0	3.60	4.55	.724	0.95
65	Gregg	LAA	64.3	5.04	4.56	.685	-0.48
66	Yan	LAA	66.7	4.59	4.62	.724	0.03
67	Shouse	TEX	53.3	5.23	4.64	.718	-0.59
68	Gonzalez	BOS	56.0	6.11	4.65	.702	-1.46
69	Vizcaino	CHA	70.0	3.73	4.65	.704	0.92
70	Yabu	OAK	58.0	4.50	4.65	.674	0.15
71	Crain	MIN	79.7	2.71	4.69	.789	1.98
72	Wickman	CLE	62.0	2.47	4.69	.741	2.22
73	Chulk	TOR	72.0	3.88	4.73	.739	0.85
74	Mulholland	MIN	59.0	4.27	4.74	.729	0.47
75	Peralta	LAA	34.7	3.89	4.79	.768	0.90
76	Rodriguez	NYA	32.3	5.01	4.79	.705	-0.22
77	Spurling	DET	70.7	3.44	4.82	.779	1.38
78	Sturtze	NYA	78.0	4.73	4.84	.730	0.11
79	Walker	TOR	84.0	3.54	4.84	.737	1.30
80	Dominguez	TEX	70.3	4.22	4.97	.707	0.75
81	Julio	BAL	71.7	5.90	5.07	.713	-0.83
82	Miller	TB	44.3	4.06	5.09	.687	1.03
83	Romero	MIN	57.0	3.47	5.12	.733	1.64
84	Colome	TB	45.3	4.57	5.16	.701	0.59
85	Carter	TB	57.0	4.89	5.19	.729	0.29
86	Embree	BOS	37.7	7.65	5.19	.699	-2.46
87	Nunez	KC	53.7	7.55	5.22	.652	-2.32
88	Quantrill	NYA	32.0	6.75	5.25	.653	-1.50
89	Cruz	OAK	32.7	7.44	5.36	.649	-2.08
90	Foulke	BOS	45.7	5.91	5.36	.690	-0.55
91	Ginter	DET	35.0	6.17	5.38	.656	-0.79
92	German	DET	59.0	3.66	5.40	.696	1.74
93	Harper	TB	73.3	6.75	5.48	.695	-1.27
94	Reed	BAL	32.7	6.61	5.51	.684	-1.10
95	Gobble	KC	53.7	5.70	5.56	.678	-0.14
96	Wood	KC	115.0	4.46	5.62	.709	1.16
97	Mahay	TEX	35.7	6.81	5.64	.652	-1.17
98	Proctor	NYA	44.7	6.04	5.64	.731	-0.41
99	Kline	BAL	61.0	4.28	5.70	.742	1.42
100	Rincon	OAK	37.3	4.34	5.74	.748	1.40
101	Thornton	SEA	57.0	5.21	6.24	.727	1.03
102	Brazelton	TB	71.0	7.61	6.75	.681	-0.85
103	League	TOR	35.7	6.56	6.88	.704	0.32