Detroit Tiger Preview - Part 4 (Pitching)

Today, I’ll present the final part of my series of posts previewing the 2006 season. The first three posts are here:

• Part 1 – Overview
• Part 2 – Offense
• Part 3 – Fielding
  

In Part 4, I’ll forecast the pitching and give my prediction for the team win total.

The Tigers had a 4.51 ERA in 2005, good enough for 8^th in the league. Kenny Rogers and Todd Jones should make up for the losses of Jason Johnson, Kyle Farnsworth and Ugueth Urbina but they probably won’t be enough to significantly improve the overall pitching. In order for there to be a substantial improvement in their team pitching results this year, I believe they would need dramatic development of their young pitchers. I do expect some improvement by Jeremy Bonderman but I think Justin Verlander and Joel are not quite ready to break out in 2006. It may be a different story in 2007 or 2008. I also am concerned that they don’t have quite enough talent in the bullpen and that may hurt.

In think most of the improvement in 2006 will come from the offense. That could fall apart too if the injuries pile up too much but I’m going to be optimistic and say that they’ll be a little healthier than last year. As for the predicted team win total…again I’ll be optimistic and predict that they will finish .500 for the first time since 1993. Exactly .500. 81 wins. More importantly, I think their future looks brighter than that.

Now for the individual pitcher forecast:

Starters

Kenny Rogers

Rogers had one of his best years last year at the age of 40 in one of the best hitting parks in the majors. I don’t expect a repeat this year but Comerica Park should help him. He should do a little better than Jason Johnson.

Year	IP	ERA	HR	BB	SO
2005	195	3.46	15	53	87
2006 Projected	186	4.25	18	48	81

Jeremy Bonderman

Bonderman pitched better than his ERA last year. He had a season ending elbow injury last year which still concerns me a little but he seems to be ok so far this spring. I think he’ll reach 200 innings for the first time and get his ERA down close to 4.00.

Year	IP	ERA	HR	BB	SO
2005	189	4.57	21	57	145
2006 Projected	210	4.05	24	64	183

Nate Robertson

Robertson faded in the second half of 2005 after a good first half for the second straight year. He also had a drop in velocity which could mean an injury or could just be the result of former pitching coach Bob Cluck’s “pitch to contact” philosophy. I’ll assume the latter and look for Robertson to have similar overall numbers this year.

Year	IP	ERA	HR	BB	SO
2005	197	4.48	28	65	122
2006 Projected	185	4.60	25	62	127

Mike Maroth

Maroth will continue to pile up innings and get hit fairly hard in the process. He will also have good enough control to keep his ERA fairly close to league average.

Year	IP	ERA	HR	BB	SO
2005	209	4.74	30	51	115
2006 Projected	205	4.65	29	46	100

Justin Verlander

I’m excited about Verlander but realistically you have to expect some growing pains this year. He’ll pitch some great games and get shelled a number of times as well. He should improve as the season progresses.

Year	IP	ERA	HR	BB	SO
2005	11	7.15	1	5	7
2006 Projected	165	5.05	16	70	140

Relievers

Todd Jones

Jones had perhaps his best year last year at the age of 37 but that was an aberration from his other recent years. I think he’ll be back on the roller coaster again this year. He’ll be one of those relievers who gets a lot of saves but also blows a lot of saves and catches more abuse from fans than he should.

Year	IP	ERA	HR	BB	SO
2005	73	2.10	2	14	62
2006 Projected	70	3.86	6	31	58

Fernando Rodney

Rodney will set up Jones and should be OK in that role. He will get the first shot at closing if Jones blows up. I think he’s more suited to setting up though.

Year	IP	ERA	HR	BB	SO
2005	44	2.86	5	17	42
2006 Projected	64	3.52	5	29	63

Jamie Walker

Walker will be the lefty specialist again this year. Fans will curse his gopher balls but he should have another decent year.

Year	IP	ERA	HR	BB	SO
2005	49	3.70	5	13	30
2006 Projected	56	3.86	6	17	44

Chris Spurling

Spurling quietly pitched 70 innings with pretty good results last year. He should continue to be a capable middle reliever in 2006.

Year	IP	ERA	HR	BB	SO
2005	71	3.44	8	22	26
2006 Projected	75	4.05	9	22	35

Joel Zumaya

Like Verlander, Zumaya will probably have his ups and downs this year. He’ll be a long reliever but may get some spot starts later in the year. The final numbers might not be too pretty but he will be dominant at times and exciting to watch.

Year	IP	ERA	HR	BB	SO
2005	---	---	---	---	---
2006 Projected	80	4.75	10	41	88

Roman Colon

Colon will also be a long reliever and spot starter. He might be the first one to step into the rotation if someone gets injured.

Year	IP	ERA	HR	BB	SO
2005	69	5.58	17	21	47
2006 Projected	95	4.97	18	38	63

Bobby Seay

Jim Leyland wants a second left-hander in the bullpen and Bobby Seay could be the man. He pitched OK in brief stints with Tampa Bay and may be useful in a limited role.

Year	IP	ERA	HR	BB	SO
2005	12	8.49	3	8	11
2006 Projected	50	4.35	7	24	42