Numbers don't add up for Twins

A few times each year, I present a team summary for the Tigers showing where they rank in lots of different statistical categories. This generally gives us a fairly clear picture of team weaknesses and strengths. It works for most teams in most seasons. So let's take a look at the Twins. First their offense (among American League teams):

7th in on base base percentage
8th in slugging
8th in OPS
13th in homers
8th in stolen bases
13th in Stolen base percentage
11th in walks

So they don't get on base that much or hit for much power and they don't steal a lot of bases. But they are third in runs scored! That's because they are batting an incredible .311 with runners in scoring position (the league average is .268).

What about their pitching? The Twins always have a good bullpen. Right? Here are the numbers (among American League teams):

10th in Starting pitchers ERA
8th in bullpen ERA.

So, they aren't doing it with pitching. The Twins are not stealing bases but they are a fast team and they always stress defense so they must be doing well there. Here are the ranks (among Major League teams):

26th in Revised Zone Rating
24th on the +/- stat

Thus, they aren't fielding well either. The numbers say they have no team strengths. They are average to below average in offense, pitching and defense. But they are fifth in the league in the stat that counts: 52 wins. They are pretty good at winning close games (27-21) but not extraordinarily so. The big reason for their success seems to be their high batting average with runners in scoring position. This is something that is very difficult to maintain over a full season even for a strong offensive team. It doesn't add up. You keep thinking it can't last.

It looked like they might be finally running out of gas when they got swept by the Red Sox this week. They then went on the the road to face the Tigers, a team on a three game win streak and coming off a dramatic come back win over the Indians. But so far the magic or witchcraft continues for the long time Tigers nemesis.

The Twins came from four runs down to beat the Tigers 7-6 in 11 innings yesterday afternoon. Tonight, they edged the Tigers 3-2. They haven't even even had such great situational hitting in the series - leaving 11 on base with 6 in scoring position on Thursday and 12 on base with 6 in scoring position tonight. They just keep winning though. In a series the Tigers really needed to win, they now need to win the last two games just to split.

Tigers first half team statistical summary

With the season half over and the Tigers now getting back to playing AL rivals, it's time for a mid-season statistical summary. One thing to keep in mind as you go through the tables below is that offense is down in the American League so far this year. The average runs scored per game is down from 4.9 in 2007 versus to 4.6 so far this year. It was even lower before the AL beat up the NL in interleague play. Anyway, where a team ranks among other teams in the league is more relevant than comparing raw numbers between 2007 and 2008.

The Tigers are third in the league in runs scored per game (4.9) after being second in 2007. Much has been made of those two 19 run games throwing off the offensive numbers and they do skew things a little but they have played enough games now where it's not a big factor. Their inconsistent offense (9 shutouts) was a problem earlier in the year but they have become more steady over the past month. run prevention has been their weakness overall this year. They have allowed 4.8 runs per game which is 12th in the league. The positive thing is that they did improve to 4.2 runs allowed per game in June.

Table 1: Overall

	2007		2008
	#	Rank	#	Rank
Record	88-74	5	41-40	9
R/G	5.5	2	4.9	3
RA/G	4.9	9	4.8	12

Table 2 shows that the Tigers are above average in most offensive categories including 3rd in batting average, 3rd in isolated power, 4th in OBP and 4th in slugging. The one area where they are only average is walks. However, they have improved from 2.9 per game in 2007 (12th in the league) to 3.4 this year (7th).

Table 2: Offense

	2007		2008
	#	Rank	#	Rank
BA	.287	2	.274	3
BB	2.93	12	3.44	7
K	6.5	7	6.1	5
ISO	.171	2	.160	3
OBP	.345	4	.342	4
SLG	.458	2	.434	4
OPS	.802	3	.776	4

Table 3 shows that their pitching is bad again this year. Looking at the starter and reliever splits, we can see that their starters ERA is 9th and their relievers ERA ranks 12th. Their starting pitching has improved remarkably since the beginning of the season though. After compiling a 5.44 ERA in their first 38 games, they have had a 3.67 ERA in their last 43.

Table 3: Pitching

	2007		2008
	#	Rank	#	Rank
FIP	4.73	11	4.45	12
ERA	4.57	9	4.50	12
SP ERA	4.68	9	4.51	9
RP ERA	4.37	11	4.49	12

Fielding is harder to measure but Table 4 illustrates that the Tigers are not doing nearly as well defensively this year. Using The Hardball Times plus/minus stat, they ranked 3rd in fielding last year and have dropped to 22nd this year. In this system, they break down fielding by looking at types of balls hit (ground ball, fly ball, pop up, line drive) . These stats are explained further in an article by Dave Studeman. This system is denoted +/- in the table.

Looking at Revised Zone Rating (RZR), they were 4th in 2007 and 18th so far this year. Each position on the field has a zone around it and a player's RZR is the proportion of balls hit into his zone which he converts into outs. Team RZR is the proportion of balls hit into all fielding zones which are converted into outs. Balls not hit into any zone are not considered in the calculation. For a further discussion of RZR and other fielding statistics, check out Fielding Stats at The Hardball Times by Dave Studeman.

The chart below also breaks RZR into infield and outfield. The table shows that both their infield and outfield defenses have slipped substantially this year. The infield ranked 6th in 2007 and is now 24th. Similarly, the outfield has gone from 1st to 17th.

Table 4: Fielding

	2007		2008
	#	Rank	#	Rank
+/-	+45	3	-12	22
RZR Overall	.829	4	.824	18
RZR Infield	.781	6	.770	24
RZR Outfield	.898	1	.900	17

In summary, both pitching and defense have slowed the Tigers this year. The offense was inconsistent early but they have become more balanced as the season has gone along. Scoring has not been a big problem overall. I think the offense will actually do a little better in the second half. The defense will probably remain average to below average. The pitching will likely be the key to whether they stay in the race. Their starting pitching has been solid over the last seven weeks. If they can keep that up (and that's a big if with two rookies in the rotation), they should be in good shape.

Pitching and defense killing Tigers

With the season approaching the quarter pole and the Tigers still struggling to come close to the potential most of thought they had, it's time for my first statistical summary of the season. One thing to keep in mind as you go through the tables below is that offense is way down in the American League so far this year. The average runs scored per game is down a half run from last year (4.9 in 2007 versus 4.4 so far this year). Thus, where a team ranks among other teams in the league is more relevant than comparing raw numbers between 2007 and 2008.

The Tigers are second in the league in runs scored per game just as they were in 2007. Where they are lagging is in run prevention - 9th in 2007 and dead last so far in 2008. The fact that their runs allowed per game has increased from 4.9 to 5.5 in a much less offensive environment is very telling. Much has been made about the up and down nature of their offense including five shutouts and some feel as if they could be winning more with a more consistent offense. However, their pythagorean estimate of wins based on runs scored and runs allowed is exactly the same as their actual wins. Thus, run prevention is the big problem much more than an inconsistent offense.

Table 1: Overall

	2007		2008
	#	Rank	#	Rank
Record	88-74	5	16-21	12
R/G	5.5	2	4.8	2
RA/G	4.9	9	5.5	14

Table 2 shows that while their isolated power (SLG-BA) is down a little bit (2nd in ISO in 2007 versus 5th in 2008), their OBP is up (4th in 2007 versus 2nd in 2008). The biggest reason for that is an astonishing increase of one walk per game (2.9 in 2007 versus 3.9 in 2008). They don't rank quite so high in batting average this year (2nd in 2007 versus 4th in 2008) but the walks are making up for it.

Table 2: Offense

	2007		2008
	#	Rank	#	Rank
BA	.287	2	.265	4
BB	2.93	12	3.94	2
K	6.5	7	5.8	8
ISO	.171	2	.152	5
OBP	.345	4	345	2
SLG	.458	2	.417	5
OPS	.802	3	.762	2

Table 3 shows that their pitching is bad as it was last year. Looking at the starter and reliever splits, we can see that starters ERA has dropped from 9th last year to 14th this year (a half run worse than the 13th team). The reliever ERA ranks about the same as in 2007. So, as if we didn't already know, the the starting pitchers are a problem. However, it's important to note that their Fielding Independent Pitching ERA does not rank much lower than last year (11th in 2007 versus 12th in 2008). This indicates that, while the pitching is bad, it's really not much worse than it was in 2007.

Table 3: Pitching

	2007		2008
	#	Rank	#	Rank
FIP	4.73	11	4.67	12
ERA	4.57	9	5.10	14
SP ERA	4.68	9	5.44	14
RP ERA	4.37	11	4.47	10

Fielding is harder to measure but Table 4 illustrates that the Tigers are not doing nearly as well defensively this year and this is likely just as important, or perhaps more more so, in their decline as pitching. They were third in the American League in Defensive Efficiency or DER (% of balls in play converted into outs) in 2007 but have dropped to eighth this year.

Using The Hardball Times plus/minus stat, they ranked 3rd in fielding last year and have dropped to 10th this year. In this system, they break down fielding by looking at types of balls hit (ground ball, fly ball, pop up, line drive) . These stats are explained further in an article by Dave Studeman. This system is denoted +/- in the table.

Looking at Revised Zone Rating (RZR), they were 4th in 2007 and 10th so far this year. Each position on the field has a zone around it and a player's RZR is the proportion of balls hit into his zone which he converts into outs. Team RZR is the proportion of balls hit into all fielding zones which are converted into outs. Balls not hit into any zone are not considered in the calculation. For a further discussion of DER, RZR and other fielding statistics, check out Fielding Stats at The Hardball Times by Dave Studeman.

The chart below also breaks RZR into infield and outfield. The table shows that both their infield and outfield defenses have slipped substantially this year. The infield ranked 6th in 2007 and is now 13th. Similarly, the outfield has gone from 1st to 6th. I should note that the Tigers outfield has made more out of zone plays than most teams so far this year so that might bump their rank up a couple of notches. Still, their overall defense is down quite a bit this year so far.

Table 4: Fielding

	2007		2008
	#	Rank	#	Rank
DER	.705	3	.697	8
+/-	+45	3	-6	10
Overall	.829	4	.820	10
Infield	.781	6	.759	13
Outfield	.898	1	.907	6

In summary, offense has not been a major problem this year. They have been inconsistent and they need to improve in that respect but so far it's not causing them to lose games. At any rate, it's not something I'm worried about. They are hitting for average and power, drawing a ton of walks and not striking out a huge amount. The offense will be fine.

The problem is run prevention and it's not just pitching. Sub-par fielding has also been a big contributor to their slow start. With Cabrera at first, Guillen at third and Sheffield in left, I'm not sure how much they can improve their defense without another positional re-alignment. I also think that the range of Placido Polanco and Edgar Renteria may be declining somewhat. So, while the fielding is a problem, I think our best hope is that their starting pitchers pitch better from this point forward.

Tigers team stat summary: 2007 versus 2006

I'll kick off my off-season statistical analysis of the Tigers with a comparison between the 2006 and 2007 seasons. The Tigers increased their offensive output from 5.1 runs per game in 2006 to 5.5 runs per game in 2007, a year in which offense was down around the majors. However, they went from being the best in the league at preventing runs in 2006 (4.2 runs allowed per game) to 9th best in 2007 (4.9 runs allowed per game). Since their run prevention declined more than their offense gained, it's not surprising that they dropped from 95 wins last year to 88 wins this year.

Table 1: Overall

	2006		2007
	#	Rank	#	Rank
Record	95-67	3	88-74	5
R/G	5.1	5	5.5	2
RA/G	4.2	1	4.9	9

Table 2 shows that the biggest the biggest difference in offense between the two seasons was batting average. Their batting average went from 9th best last year (.274) to 2nd best this year (.287). Their walk rate increased slightly but was still near the bottom of the league. Their isolated power also did not change much. However, the improvement in batting average brought up their OBP from 12th in the league in 2006 to 4th in 2007. Their slugging average also improved from 5th best last year to 2nd best this year.

Table 2: Offense

	2006		2007
	#	Rank	#	Rank
BA	.274	9	.287	2
BB	2.65	13	2.93	12
K	6.99	13	6.5	7
ISO	.174	4	.171	2
OBP	.329	12	.345	4
SLG	.449	5	.458	2
OPS	.777	7	.802	3

Table 3 is where we see the obvious reason for their decline in wins this year. After having the best ERA in the league in 2006 (3.84), they dropped to 9th best this year (4.57). Looking at the starter and reliever splits, we can see that starters and relievers were equally responsible for the change. In both cases, they went from one of the best in 2006 to the bottom half of the league in 2007. In both years, their Fielding Independent Pitching ERA was higher than their actual ERA indicating that the pitchers were likely helped by their fielders. However, it looks like they were given somewhat better support last year.

Table 3: Pitching

	2006		2007
	#	Rank	#	Rank
FIP	4.36	3	4.73	11
ERA	3.84	1	4.57	9
SP ERA	4.00	1	4.68	9
RP ERA	3.51	2	4.37	11

Fielding is harder to measure but Table 4 illustrates that the Tigers did not rank quite as well in 2007 as they did in 2006. They were the top team in the American League in Defensive Efficiency (% of balls in play converted into outs) in 2006. They were 3rd this year. However, their percentage was actually about the same both years (.704 in 2006 versus .705 in 2007).

Using The Hardball Times play by play systems, they ranked 1st in fielding last year and 4th this year. It's important to note that different systems were used in the two years. In 2006, they broke down fielding by looking at types of balls hit (ground ball, fly ball, pop up, line drive) . These stats are explained further in an article by Dave Studeman. This system is denoted +/- in the table.

In 2007, Revised Zone Rating (RZR) was used. Each position on the field has a zone around it and a player's RZR is the proportion of balls hit into his zone which he converts into outs. Team RZR is the proportion of balls hit into all fielding zones which are converted into outs. Balls not hit into any zone are not considered in the calculation. For a further discussion of DER, RZR and other fielding statistics, check out Fielding Stats at The Hardball Times by Dave Studeman.

The chart below also breaks +/- and RZR into infield and outfield. The table shows that their outfield defense improved dramatically in 2007 (13th best in 2006 to best in 2007). However, their infield defense did not do as well (best in 2006 to 6th best in 2007). Overall, their defense was solid both years but not quite as good in 2007.

Table 4: Fielding

	2006		2007
	DER	Rank	DER	Rank
	.704	1	.705	3
	+/-	Rank	RZR	Rank
Overall	+56	1	.829	4
Infield	+74	1	.781	6
Outfield	-18	13	.898	1

In conclusion, it's easy to see that the pitching was almost entirely responsible for their decline this year. Their pitching problems were of course health related as Kenny Rogers, Jeremy Bonderman, Joel Zumaya and Fernando Rodney all suffered significant injuries which severely limited their performance this year. Nate Robertson also did not pitch as well this year and missed some time with a tired arm. They are going to need to come back healthy and strong next year. And in case they all don't, and I'm not confident that Rogers will at his age, they'll need to get some help from a young pitcher or two.

How the Tigers and Indians Rank

Rather than dwell on the Tigers 7-2 loss to the Athletics tonight, I'll just say that they are tied for first place with the Indians. With 5 of their next 9 games versus the Indians, it's a good time for a statistical comparison of the two teams.

Table 1 below shows how they rank in overall run production and run prevention:

• The Tigers are 2nd among 14 American League teams in run production but 11th in run prevention.
  

• The Indians are closer to the middle of the pack in both categories - 5th in runs scored and 8th in runs allowed.

Table 1: Overall Ranks

	DET		CLE
	#	Rank	#	Rank
Record	65-53	5	65-53	5
R/G	5.71	2	5.03	5
RA/G	5.11	11	4.66	8

In Table 2, we can see how the two teams rank in various offensive categories:

• The Tigers rank 2nd in batting average and 2nd in isolated power (ISO). The only area where they are below average is walks (11th).
  

• The Indians rank 4th in walks but only 6th in isolated power and 8th in batting average
  

Table 2: Batting Ranks

	DET		CLE
	#	Rank	#	Rank
BA	.289	2	.267	8
BB	358	11	421	4
K	748	7	896	13
ISO	.176	2	.160	6
OBP	.346	3	.341	5
SLG	.464	2	.427	5
OPS	.812	2	.768	4

The pitching ranks are listed in Table 3:

• The Tigers rank 11th in both Fielding Independent Pitching and ERA. In the two years , I have been doing these comparison charts, this is the first time the Tigers ERA is not a lot lower than their FIP. This suggests that their fielding is not helping their pitching as it was last year and earlier this year.
  

• Earlier in the year, the Tigers were getting good starting pitching and poor relief pitching. Now they are not doing well in either department (8th in starter ERA and 11th in reliever ERA).

• The Indians are getting average pitching overall (7th in the league in both FIP and ERA)
  

• Cleveland is in the middle of the pack in starter ERA (7th) and reliever ERA (9th)
  

Table 3: Pitching Ranks

	DET		CLE
	#	Rank	#	Rank
FIP	4,69	11	4.38	7
ERA	4.67	11	4.37	7
SP ERA	4.63	8	4.55	7
RP ERA	4.74	11	3.96	9

Table 4 Looks at how teams rank in fielding. Defensive Efficiency Ratio (DER) is the percentage of balls in play converted into outs. One of the problems with DER is that it penalizes fielders for not converting very difficult batted balls into outs. Another problem is that it does not consider where balls were hit.

Revised Zone Rating (RZR) improves upon DER. Each position on the field has a zone around it and a player's RZR is the proportion of balls hit into his zone which he converts into outs. Team RZR is the proportion of balls hit into all fielding zones which are converted into outs. Balls not hit into any zone are not considered in the calculation. The chart below also breaks RZR into infield RZR and outfield IZR. For a further discussion of DER, RZR and other fielding statistics, check out Fielding Stats at The Hardball Times by Dave Studeman.

Here are the highlights for team fielding so far this year:

• The Tigers rank 5th in RZR (although 10th in DER). Their outfield RZR is best in the league while their infield ranks only 9th.
  

• The Indians do not rank well in any fielding category.
  

Table 4: Fielding Ranks