Contact Problems Killed Tigers on Road

One of the themes of the Tigers 2010 season was winning at home and losing on the road.  Their 52-29 home record was tied for second best in the American League.  Unfortunately, their 29-52 road record was tied for second worst.  In contrast the Central Division winning Minnesota Twins were 53-28 at home and 41-40 on the road.  So, the Tigers were only one game worse than the Twins at home but 12 games behind away from home.  If the Tigers could have played .500 ball outside of Comerica, they would have battled to the wire instead of dropping from reasonable contention weeks before the season ended. 

This is not a one year anomaly for the Tigers.  Table 1 below shows that they had a similar pattern in 2009 going 51-30 at Comerica and 35-47 in other parks.  What is the reason for this home/road disparity?  Most of the attention has focused on their inability to score on the road.  They scored 5.1 runs per game at Comerica and 4.2 runs per game on the road in 2010.  While hitting on the road has been a struggle, their pitching and defense has also failed them outside of Detroit ( 4.1 runs allowed per game at home versus  5.1 on the road).  They also had large disparities in both scoring and run prevention in 2009.

Table 1: Tigers Team Summary, 2009-2010

Looking more closely at their offense (Table 2), the Tigers did not differ much in home/away games in terms of power in 2010.  In fact, their isolated power was actually a little lower at home than on the road (.145 versus .149).  Home and away walk per game totals were also similar (3.4 versus 3.3).  The big culprits were batting average (.282 versus .255) and strikeouts per game (6.3 K/G versus 7.9 K/G).  They had the same a similar problem making contact in road games in 2009.

Table 2: Tigers Batting Summary, 2009-2010

Table 3 shows that their pitching/defense was also much better in Detroit (.695 OPS) than on the road (.770) in 2010.  Again, batting average was one of the main areas of disparity.  They had a .252 batting average against at Comerica and .274 in unfriendly parks.  They also walked fewer batters per game at home than on the road (3.0 versus 3.6). 

Table 3: Tigers Pitching Summary, 2009-2010

Why they had so much trouble getting hits and preventing hits outside of Comerica is anybody’s guess.  It could be that they lacked focus or that they were pressing too hard on the road.  If it were just one year, I would say it was a random thing.  Two years does not make a trend, but the disparity in batting average and batting average against was large enough both years to suggest that something might be going on.  It’s something to watch in the future.  If they start off 2011 not making contact or preventing contact on the road, it could be a sign of trouble. 

Home/Road splits were abstracted from ESPN

Tigers Playing Better All Around at Home

Kevin, one of my readers, left a comment asking me what I thought about the Tigers extreme home/road split so far this season. They are 27-13 at home and 21-26 on the road. That 9 1/2 game difference is the biggest in the American League central and third best in the league behind the Red Sox and Rays.

I broke down their home/road differences by offense, pitching and fielding using split stats from ESPN.COM. The offensive comparison is shown in Table 1 below. You can see that the Tigers have scored 5.6 runs per game at home versus 4.1 on the road and that they are doing better at home by every important offensive statistic.

Table 1: Tigers Offense - Home and Away

Stat	Home	Away
Runs Per Game	5.6	4.1
Batting Average	.276	.245
OBP	.353	.307
Slugging	.456	.395
OPS	.809	.701

Run prevention at home and away is shown in Table 2. Their pitching differential at home (3.9) versus on the road (4.9) is not as wide as the offensive split but one run per game is a lot. Their superior pitching at home is seen in their strikeouts (7.5 per nine innings at home versus 6.8 on the road) and home runs (0.9 versus 1.2).

There is no easy way to look at their home/away fielding split directly but the last row of Table 2 gives us a clue. DIPS% is the ratio between the predicted ERA based on walks, strikeouts and home runs and their actual ERA. Their 120 ratio at home indicates their predicted ERA is 20% higher than their actual ERA. This suggests that their fielding at home has been very strong and has helped their ERA substantially. Conversely, the 97 ratio on the road says that their predicted ERA is 3% less than their actual ERA. Thus, it does not appear that their ERA has been influenced unduely by fielding on the road as it has been at Comerica.

Table 2: Tigers Run Prevention - Home and Away

Stat	Home	Away
Runs Per Game	3.9	4.9
BB/ 9 IP	3.9	3.8
K/ 9 IP	7.5	6.8
HR/ 9 IP	0.9	1.2
OPS	.706	.785
DIPS%	120	97

In conclusion, the Tigers are doing much better at home in all phases of the game - hitting, pitching and fielding. I don't know that their team is necesarily constructed for Comerica Park. It may be that they feel more confident at Comerica or they might just be catching teams at the right time at home. If it's not just a fluke and they continue their home dominance, then that is good news because they have more home games (41) than road games the rest of the way (34).

In an unrelated note, J. Ellet Lambie has a good article on the history of Tigers in the home run derby up at Eye of the Tigers.

Also, just up now is Billfer's article on his day behind the scenes at Fox Sports. It was a great experience for him and a must read article for all Tigers television viewers.

Tigers Versus Twins: Stat Comparison

With the Tigers getting ready for their big three game series versus the Twins, I wanted to take a look at the two teams statistically. You know the Tigers are up by three games in the only statistic that ultimately matters but how did they get there:

Overall

The two teams are almost identical in run scoring and run prevention. The Tigers have scored 369 runs and allowed just 350 for a run differential of +19. The Twins have 378 runs scored and 348 allowed for a run differential of +30. Based on the Pythagorean Theorem the Twins should be 43-37 and the Tigers 41-37. So the Twins are under performing their expected wins by 2 games which is just the opposite of what they have done in recent years. The Tigers have won 4 more games than their expected wins.

The reason why the Tigers are winning more than the runs scored and runs allowed would suggest is their outstanding record of 24-11 in games decided by one or two runs. The Twins, on the other hand, are 16-22 in those games. Can the Tigers keep that up? It's not likely. The biggest known factor in winning close games is a strong bullpen. The Tigers bullpen has very good at protecting leads this year but it's not a dominant bullpen and not as good as the Twins.

Offense

As mentioned above, the two teams are very close offensively, each having scored 4.7 runs per game. What is interesting is that the Twins should have outscored the Tigers 384 to 352 according to the Runs Created statistic at Fan Graphs. Thus, the Tigers have scored 17 more runs that you would expect given their statistics. The Twins have scored six fewer runs than expected which is just the opposite of last year when they substantially outscored their runs created estimate.

One of the reasons for the Twins scoring more than expected last year was their base running. They were 10 runs above average according to the Equivalent Base Running Runs statistic in 2008. The Tigers were 9 runs below average. The Twins still lead this year but it's closer: +0.5 for the Twins and -4.5 for the Tigers.

The other reason the Twins scored more than expected last year was that they were the best hitting team in baseball with runners in scoring position. This year, the Tigers lead them in that category: .794 OPS for the Tigers versus a .763 OPS for the Twins.

Pitching

The Tigers and Twins are as close in pitching as their are in run scoring. The Twins have a FIP of 4.35 while the Tigers are at 4.38. The Tigers starting pitching has been better - 4.22 ERA versus 4.43 ERA but the Tigers have had the inferior bullpen ERA: 4.46 versus 3.82. The difference in bullpens is the reason why the Tigers probably won't maintain their advantage in close games.

Fielding

I've mentioned many times how good the Tigers fielding has been this year and nothing has changed there. According to the Ultimate Zone Rating statistic, the Tigers are second in fielding with 27.1 runs saved above average. The Twins, on the other hand, are 11.3 runs below average.

Value Statistics

Looking at the individual value statistics at Fan Graphs, the leaders Tigers in overall runs above replacement (including hitting and fielding) are

Inge 31.2
Cabrera 28.0
Granderson 24.3
Polanco 13.7
Everett 9.6
Laird 8.9

The Twins leaders are:

Mauer 40.1
Morneau 25.0
Crede 19.6
Span 16.0
Cuddyer 15.0
Kubel 12.2

The top six Tigers are 115.7 runs above replacement while the top six Twins are 127.9 runs above replacement. So, the Twins are getting more production from their core players. However, the rest of the Tigers are 0.9 runs above replacement while the remaining Twins are 20.7 runs below replacement. Thus, the Tigers are getting far more from their role players.

Conclusions

The Tigers really have not outplayed the Twins this year but have a three game lead thanks to what I consider good fortune in close games. I don't think the Tigers can sustain that so they will need to play better in the second half. Hopefully, they can start by having their bats wake up against the Twins this weekend.

June Could Have Been Worse

The Tigers finished the month of June with a record of 15-13 but it could have been a lot worse. By any other measure other than victories, the Tigers had a poor month. They were outscored by opponents 134-112 which means they were 9th in the league runs scored and second in runs allowed. By the Pythagorean Theorem, a team with those numbers would typically go 11-17, not 15-13.

They were outhit and/or pitched by a wide margin in most categories: .273 to .249 in batting average, .365 to .319 in on base percentage, .439 to .417 in slugging average, .804 to .736 in OPS, 126 to 86 in walks, etc. Those are not the numbers of a winning team. They won because they were able to win a lot of close games: an 11-4 record in games decided by two runs or fewer.

You can look at things a a couple of different ways. You could say that they were lucky to win as much as they did despite being outplayed statistically. Or you might suggest that they have a talent for performing in the clutch and winning close games. Personally, I side more with the former than the latter but they did win those games and the wins can't be taken away. I see it as them going through a period where they played poorly but still managed to win and to keep their division lead.

Whatever way you look at it, they need to start playing better if they want to keep their lead. The next series will be a big one. They will be facing the Twins in the dreaded Metrodome, a place where usually only the Twins get lucky.

One Third of the Way Home

The Tigers have reached the 54 game mark meaning that they are one third of the way through the season. They lead the American League Central division with a 29-25 record. Neither the Tigers record nor the division's mediocrity is shocking. What is surprising is how they have gotten to this point. After finishing 4th in the American League in runs scored and 12th in run prevention in 2008, the Tigers have done a reversal in 2009. They are currently 7th in offense with 5.0 runs per game and 2nd to the Mariners in run prevention with 4.4 runs allowed per game.

It may seem as if the Tigers have the worst offense you've ever seen lately but overall they are in the middle of the pack in every offensive category:

• 10th in batting average (.264)
• 9th in slugging (.413)
• 8th in OBP (.334)
• 10th in Isolated Power (.149)
• 9th in homers (55)
• 8th in walks (179)

So, why are they seventh in offense when they are between 8th and 10th in most categories? With all the talk of Josh Anderson and the speed he brings to the Tigers you might think they are running the bases well but the statistics don't indicate that they are. According to Baseball Prospectus Equivalent Base Running Runs (EqBRR) Statistic they rank 10thin the league with 3.2 runs below average. Surprisingly, the leading base runner is Gerald Laird who is 2.0 runs better than average.

Where the Tigers do rank well is hitting with runners in scoring position. They are second in the league in batting average with RISP at .285. That is probably the reason why they rank better in runs scored than they do in other hitting categories.

On the other side of the ball, their pitching staff is 3rd overall with a 4.20 FIP. Most of that is due to their starters who rank first in ERA (FIP splits not available) at 3.81. We can thank Edwin Jackson and Justin Verlander for that. Their bullpen ERA of 4.68 is 9th in the league.

One of their goals in the off-season was to improve their defense and they have been successful. They rank first in Defensive Efficiency Ratio at .707, second on The Hardball Times Fielding Runs Above Average statistic (+18) and third on the the Ultimate Zone Rating statistic (+21). I went into detail on their substantial defensive improvement in an earlier post.

There is a long way to go but the Tigers have managed to stay in first place thanks to stellar starting pitching and team defense and the good fortune of playing in the American League Central. Can they keep it up? I don't see the division getting any stronger as every team has as many or more holes as the Tigers. The White Sox and Twins appear to be the biggest threats and the Tigers have traditionally struggled against those teams. So, they will need to do better in head to head top head match-ups. Having two studs like Verlander and Jackson in the rotation certainly helps.

Do they have enough offense? So far, it's been enough but it seems to be getting worse. Earlier in the season, they were getting help from unexpected sources - a tremendous start from Brandon Inge and contributions from Adam Everett, Ramon Santaiago, Josh Anderson, etc. Lately, the bottom of the line-up has come back to earth and it has shown in the final scores. They are going to need Magglio Ordonez and Placido Polanco to get going if they are going remain league average in runs scored. A healthy powerful Marcus Thames would also help.

The other concern is the bullpen. Fernando Rodney and Joel Zumaya have been very good so far but their history of fragility is always worrisome. Their middle and long relief is almost nonexistent so any time they don't get a strong start, the team is in trouble.

Because of their limited offense and iffy bullpen, I don't see them pulling away from the division. They will probably try to make a trade for a corner outfielder or extra reliever but that is easier said than done. Trade or no trade though, I think they can stay in the race all year.

One Third of the Way Home

One month into the season, the Tigers seem to be the very definition of mediocrity. They are 7th in the league with 5.3 runs per game and 8th in runs allowed with 5.0 per game. According to the Pythagorean Theorem, they should be 11-10 which is exactly where they are. Even the division is mediocore with no team more than two games above .500 and four teams within a game of first place. Things should get interesting the next two weeks as the Tigers have a stretch of 13 games versus the Indians, White Sox and Twins.

The Bengals are middling in almost every offensive category:

• 8th in batting average (.265)
• 9th in slugging (.417)
• 7th in OBP (.339)
• 8th in Isolated Power (.252)
• 8th in homers (23)
• 9th in walks (71)

One area where they actually rank pretty well is strikeouts where their 133 total is 5th lowest in the league. With all the talk of Josh Anderson and the speed he brings to the Tigers you might think they are running the bases well but they really aren't. According to Baseball Prospectus Equivalent Base Running Runs (EqBRR) Statistic they rank 13th with 2.54 runs below average.

On the other side of the ball, their pitching staff is 9th overall with a 4.84 FIP. Bullpen implosions have been most responsible for their relatively low ranking as their starting pitching ranks 5th in FIP.

It may look like their fielding has been bad but the defensive measures do not agree. They rank fifth in Defensive Efficiency Ratio at .700 and second on The Hardball Times Fielding Runs Above Average statistic (+11).

While the team has been very average overall, they have been some fine performances by individual players. The biggest surprise offensively has been Brandon Inge who leads the team in the following categories (found at FanGraphs):

• OPS 1.114
• Slugging .667
• Isolated Power .348
• Weighted Runs Above Average (wRAA) 9.1
• Walk Percentage 15.9%
• BB/K ratio 0.93
  

Miguel Cabrera leads in batting average (.377) and On Base Average (.455). Their top base runner has been Josh Anderson (.432 EQBRR) but he is just barely ahead of Carlos Guillen (.430) and Gerald Laird (.391).

This will likely create an uproar but the pitching categories are divided among Armando Galarraga, Edwin Jackson and yes Justin Verlander who has done very well in the Fielding Indepencent Statistics:

• ERA - Galarraga 1.85
• FIP - Verlander 3.21
• BB/9 IP - Jackson 2.25
• K/ 9 IP - Verlander 10.93
• HR/ 9 IP - Galarraga 0.37
  

That 2.25 walk ratio for Jackson has probably been the single most surprising and encouraging element of the Tigers pitching staff so far.

The bullpen has been led by Bobby Seay who leads the relievers in the following statistics:

• ERA 0.00
• FIP 2.08
• BB/ 9 IP 0.00
• Win Probability Added (WPA) 0.52
  

Despite his 5.63 ERA, Fernando Rodney ranks right behind Seay with a 0.51 WPA.

Tigers team statistical summary for 2008

You already know the Tigers had an awful year and that they disappointed in almost every aspect of the game in 2008. My annual end of season statistical summary presented in tables 1-4 below confirm this but also suggest that fielding may have been the biggest contributor to their decline from 2007 to 2008.

The Tigers won 14 fewer games this year and it probably seemed like more than that. As shown in Table 1. the Bengals offensive output dropped from 5.5 runs per game in 2007 runs to 5.1 runs per game in 2008. Offense was down a little bit in the American League this year but with the additions of Miguel Cabrera and Edgar Renteria, the Tigers were expected to be one of the two best offenses in the league. Instead, they dropped from 2nd in the league last year to fourth this year.

On the other side of the ball, the Tigers allowed almost a half run more this year going from 4.9 runs allowed per game last year to 5.3 this year. Their rank dropped from 9th to 12th.

Table 1: Overall

	2007		2008
	#	Rank	#	Rank
Record	88-74	5	74-88	12
R/G	5.5	2	5.1	4
RA/G	4.9	9	5.3	12

Table 2 shows that the biggest difference offensively between 2007 and 2008 was batting average. They dropped from .287 (2nd in league) in 2007 to .271 (5th in league) in 2008. Their slugging went from 2nd best last year to 4th best this year. One area where they did improve was drawing walks going from 2.93 per game last year to 3.53 this year. This allowed them to remain 4th in on base percentage.

Not shown in the table but a big factor was their batting average with runners in scoring position dropping from .311 in 2007 to to .268 in 2008. The Twins, on the other hand, went from .276 to .305. This explains why they scored more runs than the Tigers this year despite having an OPS that that was 36 points lower. I think it was just one of those flukey things which should not be a problem for the Tigers next year.

Table 2: Offense

	2007		2008
	#	Rank	#	Rank
BA	.287	2	.271	5
BB	2.93	12	3.53	5
K	6.5	7	6.6	10
ISO	.171	2	.173	3
OBP	.345	4	.340	4
SLG	.458	2	.444	4
OPS	.802	3	.784	3

Table 3 shows that their ERA was already below average in 2007 and got worse this year. It jumped from 4.57 to 4.90 and both their starters (4.68 to 5.03) and relievers (4.37 to 4.65) contributed to the decline. Interestingly, their Fielding Independent Pitching ERA was almost the same as last year which suggests that fielding may have been the biggest contributor to this year's increase in runs allowed.

Table 3: Pitching

	2007		2008
	#	Rank	#	Rank
FIP	4.73	11	4.75	12
ERA	4.57	9	4.90	12
SP ERA	4.68	9	5.03	11
RP ERA	4.37	11	4.65	12

Fielding is harder to measure but Table 4 illustrates that the Tigers dropped off a lot defensively this year. After ranking third in the American League in Defensive Efficiency (% of balls in play converted into outs) in 2007, they dropped to 11th this year.

Using The Hardball Times plus/minus stat, they ranked 3rd in fielding last year and dropped to 12th this year. In this system, they break down fielding by looking at types of balls hit (ground ball, fly ball, pop up, line drive) . These stats are explained further in an article by Dave Studeman. This system is denoted +/- in the table.

Looking at Revised Zone Rating (RZR), they were 4th in 2007 and 12th this year. Each position on the field has a zone around it and a player's RZR is the proportion of balls hit into his zone which he converts into outs. Team RZR is the proportion of balls hit into all fielding zones which are converted into outs. Balls not hit into any zone are not considered in the calculation. For a further discussion of DER, RZR and other fielding statistics, check out Fielding Stats at The Hardball Times by Dave Studeman.

The chart below also breaks RZR into infield and outfield. The table shows that both their infield and outfield defenses slipped substantially this year. The infield ranked 6th in 2007 and 10th in 2008. Similarly, the outfield defense went from 1st to 12th. I should note that the Tigers outfield made more out of zone plays than most teams this year so that might bump their rank up a couple of notches. Still, their overall defense was down a lot this year.

Table 4: Fielding

	2007		2008
	#	Rank	#	Rank
DER	.705	3	.685	11
+/-	+45	3	-54	12
Overall	.829	4	.817	12
Infield	.781	6	.771	10
Outfield	.898	1	.885	12

In summary, the Tigers failed in most aspects of the game this year. Their offense disappointed, their pitching continued to be below average and their fielding declined substantially. They can improve their offense simply by hitting better with runners in scoring position. Since they did so well in that area in 2007 with many of the same players, there is no reason why they can't improve their BA with RISP in 2009.

Pitching will be more difficult. They need Jeremy Bonderman to be healthy and they need Justin Verlander to bounce back in 2009. They will also need to add some pitching especially relievers. I would expect a very different bullpen in 2009.

Improving their defense is one of their biggest tasks of the off-season. They have already made a move to improve their infield defense with the move of Brandon Inge to third base. There is also the possibilty that they will add a strong fielding shortstop to take over for Edgar Renteria. Their outfield defense could improve if Curtis Granderson (who struggled defensively this year) returns to form in 2009.

In the coming weeks, I'll be breaking the team stats down into individual stats so we can a better idea of specifically which players failed and where they need to improve for next year.

Numbers don't add up for Twins

A few times each year, I present a team summary for the Tigers showing where they rank in lots of different statistical categories. This generally gives us a fairly clear picture of team weaknesses and strengths. It works for most teams in most seasons. So let's take a look at the Twins. First their offense (among American League teams):

7th in on base base percentage
8th in slugging
8th in OPS
13th in homers
8th in stolen bases
13th in Stolen base percentage
11th in walks

So they don't get on base that much or hit for much power and they don't steal a lot of bases. But they are third in runs scored! That's because they are batting an incredible .311 with runners in scoring position (the league average is .268).

What about their pitching? The Twins always have a good bullpen. Right? Here are the numbers (among American League teams):

10th in Starting pitchers ERA
8th in bullpen ERA.

So, they aren't doing it with pitching. The Twins are not stealing bases but they are a fast team and they always stress defense so they must be doing well there. Here are the ranks (among Major League teams):

26th in Revised Zone Rating
24th on the +/- stat

Thus, they aren't fielding well either. The numbers say they have no team strengths. They are average to below average in offense, pitching and defense. But they are fifth in the league in the stat that counts: 52 wins. They are pretty good at winning close games (27-21) but not extraordinarily so. The big reason for their success seems to be their high batting average with runners in scoring position. This is something that is very difficult to maintain over a full season even for a strong offensive team. It doesn't add up. You keep thinking it can't last.

It looked like they might be finally running out of gas when they got swept by the Red Sox this week. They then went on the the road to face the Tigers, a team on a three game win streak and coming off a dramatic come back win over the Indians. But so far the magic or witchcraft continues for the long time Tigers nemesis.

The Twins came from four runs down to beat the Tigers 7-6 in 11 innings yesterday afternoon. Tonight, they edged the Tigers 3-2. They haven't even even had such great situational hitting in the series - leaving 11 on base with 6 in scoring position on Thursday and 12 on base with 6 in scoring position tonight. They just keep winning though. In a series the Tigers really needed to win, they now need to win the last two games just to split.

Tigers first half team statistical summary

With the season half over and the Tigers now getting back to playing AL rivals, it's time for a mid-season statistical summary. One thing to keep in mind as you go through the tables below is that offense is down in the American League so far this year. The average runs scored per game is down from 4.9 in 2007 versus to 4.6 so far this year. It was even lower before the AL beat up the NL in interleague play. Anyway, where a team ranks among other teams in the league is more relevant than comparing raw numbers between 2007 and 2008.

The Tigers are third in the league in runs scored per game (4.9) after being second in 2007. Much has been made of those two 19 run games throwing off the offensive numbers and they do skew things a little but they have played enough games now where it's not a big factor. Their inconsistent offense (9 shutouts) was a problem earlier in the year but they have become more steady over the past month. run prevention has been their weakness overall this year. They have allowed 4.8 runs per game which is 12th in the league. The positive thing is that they did improve to 4.2 runs allowed per game in June.

Table 1: Overall

	2007		2008
	#	Rank	#	Rank
Record	88-74	5	41-40	9
R/G	5.5	2	4.9	3
RA/G	4.9	9	4.8	12

Table 2 shows that the Tigers are above average in most offensive categories including 3rd in batting average, 3rd in isolated power, 4th in OBP and 4th in slugging. The one area where they are only average is walks. However, they have improved from 2.9 per game in 2007 (12th in the league) to 3.4 this year (7th).

Table 2: Offense

	2007		2008
	#	Rank	#	Rank
BA	.287	2	.274	3
BB	2.93	12	3.44	7
K	6.5	7	6.1	5
ISO	.171	2	.160	3
OBP	.345	4	.342	4
SLG	.458	2	.434	4
OPS	.802	3	.776	4

Table 3 shows that their pitching is bad again this year. Looking at the starter and reliever splits, we can see that their starters ERA is 9th and their relievers ERA ranks 12th. Their starting pitching has improved remarkably since the beginning of the season though. After compiling a 5.44 ERA in their first 38 games, they have had a 3.67 ERA in their last 43.

Table 3: Pitching

	2007		2008
	#	Rank	#	Rank
FIP	4.73	11	4.45	12
ERA	4.57	9	4.50	12
SP ERA	4.68	9	4.51	9
RP ERA	4.37	11	4.49	12

Fielding is harder to measure but Table 4 illustrates that the Tigers are not doing nearly as well defensively this year. Using The Hardball Times plus/minus stat, they ranked 3rd in fielding last year and have dropped to 22nd this year. In this system, they break down fielding by looking at types of balls hit (ground ball, fly ball, pop up, line drive) . These stats are explained further in an article by Dave Studeman. This system is denoted +/- in the table.

Looking at Revised Zone Rating (RZR), they were 4th in 2007 and 18th so far this year. Each position on the field has a zone around it and a player's RZR is the proportion of balls hit into his zone which he converts into outs. Team RZR is the proportion of balls hit into all fielding zones which are converted into outs. Balls not hit into any zone are not considered in the calculation. For a further discussion of RZR and other fielding statistics, check out Fielding Stats at The Hardball Times by Dave Studeman.

The chart below also breaks RZR into infield and outfield. The table shows that both their infield and outfield defenses have slipped substantially this year. The infield ranked 6th in 2007 and is now 24th. Similarly, the outfield has gone from 1st to 17th.

Table 4: Fielding

	2007		2008
	#	Rank	#	Rank
+/-	+45	3	-12	22
RZR Overall	.829	4	.824	18
RZR Infield	.781	6	.770	24
RZR Outfield	.898	1	.900	17

In summary, both pitching and defense have slowed the Tigers this year. The offense was inconsistent early but they have become more balanced as the season has gone along. Scoring has not been a big problem overall. I think the offense will actually do a little better in the second half. The defense will probably remain average to below average. The pitching will likely be the key to whether they stay in the race. Their starting pitching has been solid over the last seven weeks. If they can keep that up (and that's a big if with two rookies in the rotation), they should be in good shape.