How many Runs Will The Tigers Allow In 2017?

The Tigers are hoping for a come back season in 2016 from right-handed starter Jordan Zimmermann.
(Photo credit: Detroit Free Press) 

Now that I have projected the Tigers runs scored total for 2017, the next step is to estimate how many runs they will give up.  While I have been quite accurate in my runs scored projections the last few years, I have not been so successful in forecasting runs allowed.  Run prevention is more difficult to predict because pitcher's arms are so fragile and their performance so volatile.  I have undershot the Tigers eventual run total the last three years - 65 runs short in 2014, 129 run in 2015 and 30 runs last year.  

Just before the 2016 season got under way, I wrote just that the Tigers would allow 691 runs.  They went on to score 721 runs, so I was within 4%.  

As is often the case with pitching, a lot of things went wrong,  Newly acquired starter Jordan Zimmermann was injured most of the season and ended up with a 4.87 ERA which is almost a run and half higher than his career ERA.  Hold over Anibal Sanchez was even worse posting an ERA (5.87) about two runs above his career average.  Bullpen acquisition Mark Lowe also disappointed spectacularly finishing with a 7.11 ERA allowing 12 home runs in 49 innings.  

Fortunately, some things went right as well.  Ace Justin Verlander had his best season since 2012 posting a 3.04 ERA and a league-leading 254 strikeouts.  Additionally, twenty-three-year old Michael Fulmer surprised with a 3.06 ERA and was named the American a Rookie Of The Year.  

General Manager Al Avila stood pat during the off-season which means the 2017 staff will look very similar to 2016.  The hope is that Verlander and Fulmer will repeat their success and that Zimmermann will be healthier and better this year.  Many fans are also expecting continued progress from young starters Daniel Norris and Matt Boyd and hard-throwing reliever Bruce Rondon. 
  
For the projection, I first estimate the innings pitched in 2017 for their five expected starters and key bullpen pieces at the beginning of the season (Table 1).  In order to forecast runs allowed, I used three-year averages on three measures from 2014-2016 all adjusted for projected innings this year:

• Runs Allowed.

• Base Runs - estimate of what runs allowed should have been based on base runners, total bases and home runs.

• Runs Allowed according to FIP estimate of what runs allowed should have been based on strikeouts, bases on balls, hit batsmen and home runs.

For example, Justin Verlander allowed an average of 98 runs per 220 innings (his projected 2016 total) from 2014-2016.  He also allowed 92 Base Runs and 86 FIP Runs.  The average of the three numbers above (98, 92, 86) is 92.  I expect Verlander to be similar to his three-year average next year with maybe a slight age-related decline.  I'm estimating 95 runs allowed.

I project the rest of the pitchers similarly moving them up or down from their three-year averages if I think they are going to get better or worse this year.  In particular, I'm guessing that a couple of starters will do worse than their three-year averages: (1) Despite his poor season in 2016, Zimmermann's three-year average is still boosted two much by his two years in Washington in the league with no designated hitter. It is also likely that he will never regain his former velocity.  (2) Fulmer performed a bit better than expected last year and struggled down the stretch.  He should still be good this year, but may suffer some growing pains.  

While I do not expect any dramatic improvements from any of their young starters, I do expect Norris and Boyd to pitch more innings this year which means fewer innings for Sanchez, Mike Pelfrey and replacement level youngsters.  

My estimates of 750 runs scored and 700 allowed yields a differential of 50 runs or five wins above .500.  Thus, my early call for the season is a 86-76 which would be equal last year's win total. I will check in again after spring training and make adjustments should there be injuries or surpises over the next several weeks.

Table 1: Projected Runs Allowed By Tigers Pitchers in 2017

		Average for 2014-2016*
Pitcher	Proj IP	RA	BSR	FIPRuns	Comb	Proj R	Proj ERA
Justin Verlander	220	98	92	86	92	95	3.61
Jordan Zimmermann	175	68	67	63	66	85	4.07
Michael Fulmer	175	63	65	72	67	75	3.59
Daniel Norris	150	72	78	71	74	70	3.91
Matt Boyd	125	82	78	74	78	70	4.69
Alex Wilson	70	22	25	28	25	30	3.59
Francisco Rodriguez	60	18	21	24	21	25	3.49
Justin Wilson	60	27	23	21	24	25	3.49
Shane Greene	60	39	32	27	33	30	4.19
Bruce Rondon	50	25	21	21	23	20	3.35
Kyle Ryan	50	22	22	23	22	25	4.19
Other	245				147	150	5.12
Totals	1,440				672	700	4.07

*Average adjusted for projected innings in 2016.

Data Source: Baseball-Reference.com

How Many Runs Will The Tigers Score in 2017?

Tigers are hoping that a healthy Nick Castellanos will boost the team's run production in 2017
(Photo credit: Zimbio.com)  

The Tigers seem to be pretty well set with their position players going into 2017, so I am going to make my annual runs scored projection. The one spot which is still up in the air is center field, but they are not likely to do anything prior to the season which is going to significantly alter the outlook. 

Table 1 below shows that I have been really good (lucky?) at projecting the Tigers team run totals the last few years.  

Table 1: Tigers Projected and Actual Runs Scored, 2013-2016

Year	Proj. Runs
		Runs	Diff
2013	800	796	+4
2014	760	757	+3
2015	689	770	-81
2016	755	750	+5

In 2013, I projected that they would score 800 runs and they actually scored 796, so I was off by just four runs.  Moreover, I missed by just three and five runs respectively in 2014 and 2016. 

My magic formula did not work so well in 2015 when I predicted they would score 770 and they instead scored 689, a difference of 81 runs.  Much of the discrepancy was accounted for by injuries to first baseman Miguel Cabrera and designated hitter Victor Martinez and the mid-season fire sale which sent outfielder Yoenis Cespedes to the Mets.  

The Weighted Runs Created (wRC) statistic at FanGraphs is useful for this kind of exercise because a team's Runs Created total usually falls fairly close to its run scored total.  Most teams have Runs Created within 5% of their runs scored.  The Tigers combined for 782 Runs Created in 2016 which was 32 (or 4%) more than their actual runs scored.  

The main reason why the Tigers scored fewer runs than they created last year is that Runs Created does not account for runs lost from double plays or base running.  The Tigers lost 19 runs due to base running (According to FanGraphs.com) and 5 runs due to doubleplays (Baseball-Reference.com).

Keeping the above caveats in mind, the Runs Created measure is generally helpful in projecting future offensive production.  Table 2 below lists the Tigers most likely players in 2016 and their estimated plate appearances (PA).  In the next column  is the three-year average of Runs Created adjusted for expected PA.  For example, Cabrera had 335 Runs Created in 1,875 plate appearances over 2014-2016 which comes out to .179 Runs Created Per PA.  Multiplying .179 times 650 PA (his projected PA for 2017) yields his three-year average of 116 Runs Created.

The final column of the table is my forecast for Runs Created in 2017.  In all cases, it is fairly close to the three-year average, but I make adjustments if I think a player will improve or regress this year. 

On the positive side, I expect third baseman Nick Castellanos to  improve over his average of 2014-2016.  I also expect left fielder Justin Upton to do a little better this year compared to his Petco Park season in 2015 and his slump ravaged 2016 campaign.  Thus, I give these players a boost in their final projected totals.

On the other hand, I'm guessing that Cabrera, designated hitter Victor Martinez and second baseman Ian Kinsler will regress a bit due to age.  So, their projected totals get marked down slightly.

Aggregating all the Runs Created yields 765 for the team. The last parts of the equation are base running and double plays.  I am optimistic they will be a little smarter on the bases this year, but I still expect them to lose about 15 runs.   

Based on the above, I am predicting 750 runs in 2017 assuming no major changes or injuries before opening day.  That would be exactly the same as last year which makes sense given that they have almost the same team.  
    
Table 1: Tigers Projected Runs in 2017

Player	PA	Runs Created
		3-Yr Avg*	2017 Proj
McCann	375	34	35
Cabrera	650	116	110
Kinsler	675	88	80
Iglesias	500	51	55
Castellanos	575	68	75
Upton	625	85	90
J. Martinez	625	104	100
V. Martinez	550	80	70
Mahtook	300	30	30
Collins	175	19	20
Jones	150	5	15
Avila	300	33	30
Romine	250	19	20
Machado	150	13	15
Others	300	23	20
Base Running/DP			-15
Totals	6,200		750