Wednesday, March 08, 2006

Projections for Tiger Relief Pitchers in 2006

Last week, I calculated an average projection over three systems (Bill James Handbook, PECOTA, ZIPS) for Tiger starting pitchers including all those battling for the fifth spot in the rotation. Today I’ll look at the relievers most likely to make the 25 man roster. I’m also including the ailing Craig Dingman for comparison purposes. Also note that some of pitchers (Roman Colon, Wil Ledezma, Joel Zumaya and Jason Grilli) attempting to make the starting rotation are also bullpen candidates

The table below is color coded. Every player projected to fall in the top 30 percent of the league’s relievers for ERA is coded in blue. Every player projected to fall in the bottom 30% for ERA is coded in red. The middle 40% are in black. These percentiles are based on 2005 ERAs for relief pitchers 30 or more innings pitched and more relief appearances than starts. .

Table - Average Projections for Tiger Relief Pitchers in 2006

Player

IP

ERA

Todd Jones

70

4.12

Fernando Rodney

54

3.60

Jamie Walker

49

4.13

Chris Spurling

75

4.19

Mark Woodyard

83

5.10

Franklin German

54

5.25

Matt Mantei

30

4.95

Craig Dingman

55

4.44


Here are the highlights:

  • Based on the projections, Fernando Rodney will have the lowest ERA among relievers by far.

  • Three of the relievers (Mark Woodyard, Franklin German and Matt Mantei) with a decent chance to make the bullpen are projected to finish in the bottom 30% of the league.

  • Before his injury, Dingman was projected to be one of their five best relief pitchers.

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