The biggest discrepancy between Baseball Prospectus' PECOTA projection and my rudimentary formula was for outfielder JD Martinez. PECOTA is pegging him for a .781 OPS in 2016 after hitting .912 in 2014 and .879 in 2016. I am guessing without reservation that he'll be closer to .900 than .781. Other individual differences are smaller, but Baseball Prospectus has the Tigers scoring 692 runs in aggregate whereas as I have them scoring 755.
On the pitching side. PECOTA projects Justin Verlander to have a 3.92 ERA whereas I am guessing he will be closer to last year's 3.38 ERA. Overall, Baseball Prospectus guesses the Tigers will allow 713 runs. By my calculations (before spring training), they would allow 663.
Now, a week before the season starts, I am not budging on my 755 runs scored prediction. Their offense is sound and I will be surprised if they do not hit. The wildcard of course is designated hitter Victor Martinez. If he is awful again this year, then that changes the outlook a bit, but my projections already assume some fragility. I don't think he will be anywhere close to what he was in 2014 when he slugged his way to a .974 OPS. A better guess is 2013 (when he OPSed .785), but with fewer plate appearances.
The pitching, on the other hand, looks different than it did in February. Injuries to Daniel Norris (fractured vertabrae), Alex Wilson (sore shoulder) and Blaine Hardy (shoulder impingement) have dampened my enthusiasm soewhat. On the positive side, it looks as if Anibal Sanchez has recovered from his early spring ailment. History tells us he will not get through a full season , but I only have him programmed for a 160 innings anyway.
I am guessing we will see about 100 additional innings (compared to my earlier prediction) that will be pitched by pitchers not named Daniel Norris, Alex Wilson and Blaine Hardy. This will hurt because although they have better depth than last year, it is still not good. So, my pitching projection needs to be adjusted.
For the projection, I first estimate the innings pitched in 2016 for their projected starters and key bullpen pieces (Table 1 below). In order to forecast runs allowed, I used three-year averages on three measures from 2013-2015 all adjusted for projected innings this year:
- Runs Allowed.
- Base Runs - estimate of what runs allowed should have been based on base runners, total bases and home runs.
- Runs Allowed according to FIP estimate of what runs allowed should have been based on strikeouts, bases on balls, hit batsmen and home runs.
I project the rest of the pitchers similarly moving them up or down from their three-year averages if I think they are going to get better or worse this year.
My new runs allowed estimate is 691 which combined with 755 runs scored yields a differential of 64. Since ten runs is worth roughly one win, the Tigers should win six more games than a.500 team. So, I now have them winning 87 games. Hopefully, I will not have to make any more adjustments before opening day unless it involves the acquisition of a healthy pitcher!
Table 1: Projected Runs Allowed By Tigers Pitchers in 2016
Average for
2013-2015*
|
|||||||
Pitcher
|
Proj IP
|
RA
|
BSR
|
FIPRuns
|
Comb
|
Proj R
|
Proj ERA
|
Justin
Verlander
|
210
|
99
|
95
|
80
|
91
|
85
|
3.35
|
Jordan
Zimmermann
|
200
|
77
|
76
|
73
|
75
|
85
|
3.52
|
Anibal
Sanchez
|
160
|
69
|
64
|
57
|
63
|
75
|
3.88
|
Mike
Pelfrey
|
150
|
89
|
85
|
70
|
81
|
80
|
4.42
|
Daniel
Norris
|
90
|
48
|
44
|
47
|
46
|
45
|
4.14
|
Shane
Greene
|
80
|
52
|
47
|
39
|
46
|
45
|
4.66
|
Francisco
Rodriguez
|
65
|
20
|
24
|
26
|
25
|
25
|
3.18
|
Mark
Lowe
|
60
|
28
|
28
|
24
|
27
|
27
|
3.73
|
Justin
Wilson
|
55
|
19
|
18
|
20
|
19
|
19
|
2.86
|
Alex
Wilson
|
35
|
12
|
14
|
13
|
13
|
15
|
3.55
|
Blaine
Hardy
|
35
|
12
|
14
|
12
|
13
|
13
|
3.08
|
Drew
VerHagen
|
35
|
10
|
10
|
16
|
12
|
15
|
3.55
|
Bruce Rondon
|
30
|
17
|
16
|
12
|
15
|
15
|
4.14
|
Other
|
240
|
147
|
147
|
5.07
|
|||
Totals
|
1,445
|
673
|
691
|
3.95
|
*Average adjusted for projected innings in 2016.
Data Source: Baseball-Reference.com