Detroit Tigers Top 20 Seasons: #2 1984

In reviewing the history of the Detroit Tigers, I often think about the best seasons to be a Tigers fan.  So, I am writing a series of posts listing the top 20 seasons in Tigers history.  There is no specific formula for determining the best seasons, but there are some criteria which I consider carefully.  Playoff appearances, especially those leading to world championships are, of course, important.  Team dominance as measured by winning percentage and run differential also carries a lot of weight.  

While most of the teams on the list did win a lot of games, this is not simply a ranking of the best teams statistically.  Sometimes, a non-winning season stands out because of great individual achievements or because the team was unique in some way.  I wanted every decade to be represented and since the Tigers have had a couple of poor decades, this was a challenge.  However, the Tigers have managed to put together at least one campaign each decade which was memorable even if it was not a great year in terms of wins and losses and some of those seasons will also be included.   

The entire list of 20 seasons can be found here.

If this was a series about the most dominant Tigers teams, the 1984 would finish on top.  Their 35-5 start was the best in baseball history and they went on to win the division, the playoffs and the World Series virtually unchallenged.  They also led the league in runs scored and fewest runs allowed in route to a franchise-best 104 wins.

So, why is this team not number one on the top twenty seasons list?  The reason is because they were so good that it was a season without drama.  After the fast start, fans just waited for the playoffs hoping there would not be an epic collapse.  There would be no collapse.  Instead, they led the AL east division from wire to wire and won by 15 games over the Blue Jays.  The post-season turned out to be as easy as the regular season.  In the end, this season is best remembered for the first forty games.

In 1983, the Tigers had gone 92-70 and finished in second place, six games behind the Orioles.  During the off-season, they made two major moves which put the finishing touch on an already strong roster.  First, they signed free agent first baseman Darrell Evans in December.  Then they obtained reliever Willie Hernandez and first baseman Dave Bergman in a three-team deal with the Phillies and Giants near the end of spring training.

The Hernandez acquisition would prove to be the bigger of the two deals. He emerged into the league's best closer winning nine games and saving 32 and posting a 1.92 ERA in 141 innings.  He earned a Cy Young and MVP Award for his efforts and was the last Tiger prior to Justin Verlander in 2011 to win either honor.

Hernandex had a lot of help.  It was not a team of superstars, but it was an extremely deep roster with absolutely no weaknesses.  They led the AL with a 3.49 ERA with a variety of weapons.  Right handers Jack Morris (109 ERA+ in 240 innings) and Dan Petry (121 ERA+ in 233 innings) led a strong starting rotation.  They also received solid contributions from Milt Wilcox,Juan Berenguer and Dave Rozema.  Beyond Hernandez in the bullpen, they had husky right-hander Aurelio Lopez (10 wins , 14 saves and a 134 ERA+ in 138 innings).

Offensively, Detroit led the league with 829 runs and 187 homers; yet no player had as many as 100 RBI or 100 runs scored.  It was a well-balanced team with four excellent two-way players up the middle - catcher Lance Parrish (33 homers), second baseman Lou Whitaker (112 OPS+), shortstop Alan Trammell (.314 BA and 135 OPS+) and center fielder Chester Lemon (134 OPS+).  It didn't stop there though.  Right fielder Kirk Gibson led the team with a 141 OPS+, no starter had an OPS+ under 98 and they had a seemingly endless bench. 

The Tigers went on to sweep a mediocre Royals team in three games in the playoffs.  In the World Series, they had little trouble with the Padres winning four games to one.  The only loss came in game two when light-hitting Kurt Bevacqua beat them with a three-run homer in the fifth inning.  It was the only bad thing I can remember happening that year. 

With the series tied at one, the Tigers went home and finished off the Padres with three wins in Tiger Stadium.  They eliminated the Padres with an 8-4 victory in game five, a contest best known for Gibson's three-run homer versus Goose Gossage in the eighth.

Many consider the 1984 squad to be the best Tigers team ever.  It was almost a perfect season, but it was too easy and too lacking in suspense to head the list of most memorable seasons. 

Some of data for this article were gathered from Baseball-Reference.com and Retrosheet.org

Cabrera and Fielder Can be Best Tigers Duo Ever

Newly acquired first baseman Prince Fielder joins soon to be third baseman Miguel Cabrera to form what is probably the best offensive one-two punch in the majors.  It won't be the first dynamic duo in Tigers history though.  Fearsome twosomes such as Deadball stars Ty Cobb and Sam Crawford and Depression era greats Charlie Gehringer and Hank Greenberg quickly come to mind.  So, I am going to rank the best Tigers hitting pairs in franchise history.

Hitting performance can be measured by Batting Runs (BR) which was discussed in an earlier post.  In Summary, Batting Runs is the estimated number of runs a player would contribute to an average team beyond what an average player would have contributed in his place.  For example, Cabrera had 71 Batting Runs in 2011.  So, he contributed 71 runs above what an average player would have been expected to contribute in the same number of outs.  The Batting Runs statistic is described in more detail towards the bottom of the linked article.

The table below lists all seasons where the Tigers had a pair of players combining for 80 or more Batting Runs.  To be certain that both players had great seasons, each was required to have 35+ Batting Runs.

Table: Top Tigers Batting Duos by Batting Runs

Year	Player 1	BR	Player 2	BR	Total
1961	Norm Cash	85	Rocky Colavito	51	136
1911	Ty Cobb	76	Sam Crawford	50	126
1917	Ty Cobb	75	Bobby Veach	41	116
1921	Ty Cobb	52	Harry Heilmann	60	112
1937	Charlie Gehringer	44	Hank Greenberg	67	111
1940	Hank Greenberg	64	Rudy York	42	106
1925	Ty Cobb	48	Harry Heilmann	55	103
1922	Ty Cobb	56	Harry Heilmann	46	102
1934	Charlie Gehringer	50	Hank Greenberg	49	99
1935	Charlie Gehringer	36	Hank Greenberg	62	98
1909	Ty Cobb	62	Sam Crawford	35	97
1913	Ty Cobb	52	Sam Crawford	36	88
1946	Roy Cullenbine	41	Hank Greenberg	43	84
1919	Ty Cobb	43	Bobby Veach	40	83
1914	Ty Cobb	42	Sam Crawford	39	81
1926	Harry Heilmann	42	Heinie Manush	38	80

Data Source: Baseball-Reference.com

The best combined Batting Runs total by two players in Tigers history was 136 by first baseman Norm Cash (85 BR) and outfielder Rocky Colavito (51) in 1961. The pairs appearing most frequently on the list were Cobb and Crawford (four times from 1909-1917), Cobb and under-rated slugger Harry Heilmann (three times from 1921-1925) and Gehringer and Greenberg (three times from 1934-1937).

Where might Cabrera and Fielder fit on this list in the future? They have already had three seasons where their combined totals would have made the table: 127 in 2011, 101 in 2009 and 96 in 2007.  In fact their 2011total would have been the second highest total ever for the Tigers.

Indeed, Detroi's new power duo has a good chance to be one of the best or perhaps the best hitting pair in franchise history.  

Can Cabrera Play Third?

Everybody is talking about Miguel Cabrera's move to play third base with the acquisition of Prince Fielder.  I don't think anybody thinks he'll be an above average defender at third.  Most Tigers fans are optimistic that he'll be able to play the position at an acceptable level.  Most non-Tigers fans and analysts seem to be more skeptical.

Cabrera last played third base for the Tigers in 2008, but that didn't last very long.  Manager Jim Leyland moved Cabrera to third base and Carlos Guillen from first to third before the first month of the season was complete.  While Cabrera did not look good at third base, the swap was made as much because of Guillen's ineptness as first as Cabrera's problems at third.

Cabrera's only two full seasons at the hot corner came in 2006-2007 with the Marlins.  The results for those two seasons are shown in the table below.  The following advanced statistics are included:

Mitchel Lichtman's Ultimate Zone Rating (UZR)
Sean Smith's Total Zone
John Dewan's Defensive Runs Saved (DRS)
Baseball Prospectus' Fielding Runs Above Average (FRAA)

The value for each measure is the number of runs Cabrera cost his team defensively compared to the average third baseman.  If we average the four numbers together, we arrive at -7 in 2006 and -10 in 2007.  Given that he such an incredible hitter, we could certainly live with him giving up 7 to 10 runs defensively over the course of the season.  Jay Jaffe's recent article at Baseball Prospectus shows that the worst third basemen cost their teams as many as 20 or more runs a season.    

Table: Advanced Fielding Statistics for Cabrera at Third Base, 2006-2007

Statistic	2006	2007	Average
UZR	-3	-4	-4
Total Zone	-6	-11	-8
DRS	-9	-16	-12
FRAA	-10	-10	-10
Aggregate	-7	-10	-8

The question is can Cabrera still field at the same level?  He hasn't played third base full-time in five years and he is bigger and probably less mobile than he was as a Marlin. By most accounts, he has good hands and a strong throwing arm.  It is less certain that he has the lateral range to play the position.  With the steady but immobile Jhonny Peralta at shortstop, he won't get much help there.  There is also a question as to how well Cabrera will be able to handle bunts and you can sure he will be tested.

Perhaps even more important than his performance at third is his ability to stay healthy.  The Tigers can not afford to have him get hurt diving for balls or making unfamiliar movements on hard shots hit in his vicinity.  If he can play third regularly, then they will have solved a major positional problem with the alternative being a Brandon Inge/ Don Kelly platoon.  Moreover, his ability to play third would prevent a designated hitter/ first base logjam next year when Victor Martinez returns.

I'm less optimistic about the move than some fans as I think he'll be closer to -20 than -8.  However, I think he will be adequate enough to stay there most days.  I also envision him doing some DHing when a ground ball pitcher such as Rick Porcello is on the mound.  He also may play some first base with Prince Fielder serving as DH some games.  If all that happens, I think things will work out well for 2012.

The 2013 season is a different story because there would be less flexibility with Martinez back.  It's best to take one year at a time at this point though.   

How many Wins Will Prince Fielder Add?

There have been a lot of emotional reactions around the internet to yesterday's shocking Prince Fielder signing.  Detroit fans, for the most part, are in love with the acquisition and do not seem to see any possible downside to the deal  On the other hand, many national fans and analysts are suggesting that the Tigers have made a mistake.  Most of their critique touches upon either the length of the deal or the move of Miguel Cabrera to third base or both.   Some of the opposing viewpoints have been listed at Bless You Boys.

So, who is right - the euphoric fans or the critical analysts?  If you have read my blog before, you probably guessed what I think - that the truth is in between the two extremes.  First, I am less concerned about contracts than most analysts.  Whether a contract is good or bad depends on so many different variables that you can't really answer the question with a formula.

In this case, some critics might not be understanding how Tigers owner Mike Illitch probably views the deal.  Illitch is 82 years old and wants to win a World Series badly and he wants it now.  I think this signing is a win now move more than a carefully calculated long-term deal.  I don't believe Illitch is concerned about what happens nine years from now or seven or even five.  For all we know, they might be under new ownership by 2016 and staging a gigantic fire sale. 

So, I think evaluation of the deal has to be made based on the early years of the contract.  In fact, there is so much uncertainty about whether Cabrera can handle the move to third and what happens next year when Victor Martinez returns, I am just going to look at 2012 for now.  What follows is my obligatory WAR analysis.

Last week, I tried to answer the question of how many games the Tigers would lose if Martinez was replaced by one of the lower priced free agents such as Johnny Damon.  I estimated that it was about two games.

This week's question is: How many wins do the Tigers gain in 2012 by adding Prince Fielder to replace Victor Martinez? This is not a simple matter of subtracting Martinez's expected WAR from Fielder's expected WAR.  There are moving parts which need to be considered - most notably Cabrera's shift to third.

What we need to do is compare the WAR totals of the old alignment (Cabrera at first,  Brandon Inge/ Don Kelly at third, Martinez at DH,) to the new set up (Fielder at first, Cabrera at third, some DH combo).  WAR Projections for the first group are as follows:

1B. Cabrera 7.0
3B. Inge/Kelly 0.5 (barely above replacement)
DH. Martinez 3.0
Total 10.5

Now, the second trio:

1B. Fielder 5.5
3B. Cabrera 6.5 (assuming about 20 runs below average defensively)
DH. Andy Dirks/ Ryan Raburn/ Don Kelly/ etc 1.5
Total 13.5

So, the Tigers gain three wins (13.5-10.5) by adding Fielder over Martinez.  Really? Just three wins? Yes, because Martinez is quite productive.  Also remember that three wins is actually a lot for team with playoff aspirations.

Fielder's three wins over Martinez and five to six wins over replacement does remind us though that one player generally does not make the huge difference that is traditionally believed.  Fielder is a tremendous acquisition, but he can only do so much.  A lot of things need to keep going right to assure another division title and hopefully a better post-season result - the pitching in particular.  But that's a topic for another post. 

Cabrera to Play Third Base?

According to the Detroit Free Press, Miguel Cabrera has said he will be playing third base.  I don't know how well that will work out and normally I would be against such a move.  However, they get so little offense out of Brandon Inge/ Don Kelly, it can't hurt to try it.  That will be quite an infield both offensively...and defensively.  Perhaps, they can move Cabrera to designated hitter when sinker baller Rick Porcello is on the mound.

Now, for another new line-up:

Jackson CF
Boesch RF
Cabrera 3B
Fielder 1B
Young DH
Avila C
Peralta SS
Dirks LF
Santiago 2B

The DH/LF combo is still a big question mark, but I imagine they'll be trying a few players in those spots with Delmon Young perhaps moving back and forth.