How many Wins Will Prince Fielder Add?

There have been a lot of emotional reactions around the internet to yesterday's shocking Prince Fielder signing.  Detroit fans, for the most part, are in love with the acquisition and do not seem to see any possible downside to the deal  On the other hand, many national fans and analysts are suggesting that the Tigers have made a mistake.  Most of their critique touches upon either the length of the deal or the move of Miguel Cabrera to third base or both.   Some of the opposing viewpoints have been listed at Bless You Boys.

So, who is right - the euphoric fans or the critical analysts?  If you have read my blog before, you probably guessed what I think - that the truth is in between the two extremes.  First, I am less concerned about contracts than most analysts.  Whether a contract is good or bad depends on so many different variables that you can't really answer the question with a formula.

In this case, some critics might not be understanding how Tigers owner Mike Illitch probably views the deal.  Illitch is 82 years old and wants to win a World Series badly and he wants it now.  I think this signing is a win now move more than a carefully calculated long-term deal.  I don't believe Illitch is concerned about what happens nine years from now or seven or even five.  For all we know, they might be under new ownership by 2016 and staging a gigantic fire sale. 

So, I think evaluation of the deal has to be made based on the early years of the contract.  In fact, there is so much uncertainty about whether Cabrera can handle the move to third and what happens next year when Victor Martinez returns, I am just going to look at 2012 for now.  What follows is my obligatory WAR analysis.

Last week, I tried to answer the question of how many games the Tigers would lose if Martinez was replaced by one of the lower priced free agents such as Johnny Damon.  I estimated that it was about two games.

This week's question is: How many wins do the Tigers gain in 2012 by adding Prince Fielder to replace Victor Martinez? This is not a simple matter of subtracting Martinez's expected WAR from Fielder's expected WAR.  There are moving parts which need to be considered - most notably Cabrera's shift to third.

What we need to do is compare the WAR totals of the old alignment (Cabrera at first,  Brandon Inge/ Don Kelly at third, Martinez at DH,) to the new set up (Fielder at first, Cabrera at third, some DH combo).  WAR Projections for the first group are as follows:

1B. Cabrera 7.0
3B. Inge/Kelly 0.5 (barely above replacement)
DH. Martinez 3.0
Total 10.5

Now, the second trio:

1B. Fielder 5.5
3B. Cabrera 6.5 (assuming about 20 runs below average defensively)
DH. Andy Dirks/ Ryan Raburn/ Don Kelly/ etc 1.5
Total 13.5

So, the Tigers gain three wins (13.5-10.5) by adding Fielder over Martinez.  Really? Just three wins? Yes, because Martinez is quite productive.  Also remember that three wins is actually a lot for team with playoff aspirations.

Fielder's three wins over Martinez and five to six wins over replacement does remind us though that one player generally does not make the huge difference that is traditionally believed.  Fielder is a tremendous acquisition, but he can only do so much.  A lot of things need to keep going right to assure another division title and hopefully a better post-season result - the pitching in particular.  But that's a topic for another post. 

Cabrera to Play Third Base?

According to the Detroit Free Press, Miguel Cabrera has said he will be playing third base.  I don't know how well that will work out and normally I would be against such a move.  However, they get so little offense out of Brandon Inge/ Don Kelly, it can't hurt to try it.  That will be quite an infield both offensively...and defensively.  Perhaps, they can move Cabrera to designated hitter when sinker baller Rick Porcello is on the mound.

Now, for another new line-up:

Jackson CF
Boesch RF
Cabrera 3B
Fielder 1B
Young DH
Avila C
Peralta SS
Dirks LF
Santiago 2B

The DH/LF combo is still a big question mark, but I imagine they'll be trying a few players in those spots with Delmon Young perhaps moving back and forth.  



    

Yes, The Tigers Really did Sign Prince Fielder

I just got out of long meeting at work, so I decided to quickly check a couple of things on the internet before I got back to my programming and statistics.  I looked at Twitter and saw a tweet about the Tigers signing Prince Fielder and figured that one of the Twitter imposters was messing around again.  Then I saw something from the reliable Jon Morosi and realized it was real. My first thought was that Fielder signed with the Tigers for one year so that he could test the free agent marked again next year.  Reading a little further, I was shocked to find out that the Tigers are signing him to a nine- year deal worth $214 million..  I've been following the Tigers for 44 years and I've never been this surprised by a move. I don't think anybody saw it coming at all.

I'm still digesting this and it's too early to do a thorough analysis, but needless to say the Tigers have found their replacement for the injured Victor Martinez.  Apparently, owner Mike Illitch has decided he is not going to worry about budgets and wants to win now at any cost.  The first obvious long-term question is what to do about the first base and designated hitter positions when Victor Martinez is ready to play in 2013.  I would imagine they would be trading Cabrera or Fielder at that point (Edit: This now seems unlikely with the move of Cabrera to third base) , but it's too early to think about.

For now, their 2012 line-up will probably look something like this:

Jackson CF
Boesch RF
Cabrera DH
Fielder 1B
Young LF
Avila C
Peralta SS
Santiago 2B
Inge 3B

Do I like the move? Well, there is a risk all the big contracts could put them in a bind if Illitch decides to slash the budget in the future. The move is so big and so unbelievable though that I have no choice but to love it as a fan.  It's obvioulsly great for this year.  I'll analyze the rest of it later.

Detroit Tigers Top 20 Seasons: #3 1935

In reviewing the history of the Detroit Tigers, I often think about the best seasons to be a Tigers fan.  So, I am writing a series of posts listing the top 20 seasons in Tigers history.  There is no specific formula for determining the best seasons, but there are some criteria which I consider carefully.  Playoff appearances, especially those leading to world championships are, of course, important.  Team dominance as measured by winning percentage and run differential also carries a lot of weight.  

While most of the teams on the list did win a lot of games, this is not simply a ranking of the best teams statistically.  Sometimes, a non-winning season stands out because of great individual achievements or because the team was unique in some way.  I wanted every decade to be represented and since the Tigers have had a couple of poor decades, this was a challenge.  However, the Tigers have managed to put together at least one campaign each decade which was memorable even if it was not a great year in terms of wins and losses and some of those seasons will also be included.   

The entire list of 20 seasons can be found here.

We are down to the final three seasons in the Top Twenty and each has a legitimate argument as the number one season.  The 1935 team was the Tigers first world champion.  It came during the Great Depression, a time where the city of Detroit needed positive things to happen anywhere they could get it.  On the field, it was a powerful team with the highest run differential in franchise history.  Finally, the season ended with a dramatic game-winning hit clinching the championship.

What keeps this team from the number one ranking was that they did not win quite enough.  They started slow (5-9 in April) and finished slow (12-14 in September).  They went 93-58 four games ahead of the second place Yankees, but that's not a lot of wins for a team with a run differential of 254.  The problem was they were 19-27 in one-run games, something that was surely a source of frustration for fans throughout the season.     

The Tigers had their typical 1930s offensive powerhouse leading the league with 919 runs scored.  First baseman Hank Greenberg batted .328 with a league leading 389 total bases and 170 RBI in route to the MVP award.  The 1934 MVP Mickey Cochrane batted .319/.452/.450 as a catcher/manager.  Second baseman Charlie Gehringer mechanically batted .330/.409/.502 with 123 runs scored.

Detroit also had a solid staff finishing second in the AL with a 3.82 ERA.  Tommy Bridges had 21 wins an ERA+ of 118 and a league-leading 163 strikeouts.  Schoolboy Rowe had a 112 ERA+ in 275 innings and led the league with six shutouts.

The Tigers went on to defeat the Cubs in six games in the World Series.  They may have had trouble in close games during the season, but they thrived in those situations during the series.  They won game three 6-5 on a 12th inning single by outfielder Jo Jo White.  They took game four 2-1 behind a complete game from right handed General Crowder.  This put them up three games to one in the series. 

After losing game five 3-1, the Tigers returned to Detroit for game six.  They entered the bottom of the ninth tied at three.  Cochrane singled with one out and moved up to second on a ground out by Gehringer.  Finally, outfielder Goose Goslin hit a game-winning single to right and the Tigers had their first world championship.  It was one of the greatest moments in the history of the Tigers.

Some of data for this article were gathered from Baseball-Reference.com and Retrosheet.org

Detroit Tigers Top 20 Seasons: #4 1945

In reviewing the history of the Detroit Tigers, I often think about the best seasons to be a Tigers fan.  So, I am writing a series of posts listing the top 20 seasons in Tigers history.  There is no specific formula for determining the best seasons, but there are some criteria which I consider carefully.  Playoff appearances, especially those leading to world championships are, of course, important.  Team dominance as measured by winning percentage and run differential also carries a lot of weight.  

While most of the teams on the list did win a lot of games, this is not simply a ranking of the best teams statistically.  Sometimes, a non-winning season stands out because of great individual achievements or because the team was unique in some way.  I wanted every decade to be represented and since the Tigers have had a couple of poor decades, this was a challenge.  However, the Tigers have managed to put together at least one campaign each decade which was memorable even if it was not a great year in terms of wins and losses and some of those seasons will also be included.   

The entire list of 20 seasons can be found here.

Hundreds of major league players would miss playing time (mostly from 1943-1945) as they served in World War II.  In 1945, the final year of the war, the Tigers won their second pennant thanks, in part, to the efforts of returning hero Hank Greenberg. After missing parts of five seasons due to the war, Hammerin' Hank blasted a dramatic game-winning grand slam on the final day of the season to beat the St. Louis Browns 6-3 and the Tigers clinched the pennant. 

The Tigers finished 88-65, a game and a half ahead of an eccentric Washington Senators team, featuring a starting rotation of four knuckle ballers.  The Tigers finished second in the league behind the Senators with a 2.99 ERA. Left-hander Hal Newhouser achieved the pitching triple crown with 25 wins, a 1.81 ERA and 212 strikeouts.  His efforts earned him a second consecutive MVP award.  The Tigers also received strong seasons from Dizzy Trout (113 ERA+ in 246 innings) and Al Benton (2.02 ERA in 192 innings).

The Tigers did not have the awesome offense of some earlier years, but they finished second in the league with 633 runs scored.  Despite a great deal of missed time, Greenberg showed little rust batting .312 with 35 extra base hits in 78 games.  Outfielder Roy Cullenbine led the league with 113 walks, had a .402 OBP and a 139 OPS+.  Steady Eddie Mayo finished second in the MVP voting after posting a 112 OPS+ as a second baseman. 

The Bengals faced the Chicago Cubs in the World Series and split the first four games. The Tigers went up three games to two with an 8-4 victory in game five as Greenberg pounded three doubles.  The Cubs proceeded to tie the series when third baseman Stan Hack doubled home the game-winning run in the bottom of the twelfth in game six.  The Tigers then scored five runs in the first inning of game seven and crushed the Cubs 9-3 to win the series.

The 1945 team was not a juggernaut, but it was Detroit's second championship and would be their last post-season appearance for two decades. 

Some of data for this article were gathered from Baseball-Reference.com and Retrosheet.org