Thomas Up, Kelly Down

According to Jason Beck, via Twitter, the Tigers have recalled Clete Thomas and designated Donnie Kelly for assignment. Thomas did well in his stint with Toledo batting .341 with 10 doubles and 11 stolen bases in 88 at bats. Kelly got off to a fast start with the Tigers but has just two hits in his last 24 at bats and is down to .250/.308/.354 overall.

Thomas is not coming up to sit on the bench. Clete should be replacing magglio Ordonez in right against right-handed starters. Hopefully, Jim Leyland will keep Ryan Raburn and Marcus Thames in the line-up against most pitchers, at least until they go into a slump. There is no good reason for Ordonez to be getting more playing time than any of those three right now.

You never know about Leyland and his line-ups but I doubt we'll see a repeat of Thomas in the third spot. Ultimately, he may be a leadoff man but right now I can see him batting seventh in place of Magglio.

Galarraga Shines, Bullpen Does Not

Armando Galarraga pitched his best game since April tonight but the bullpen could not finish the job and the Tigers lost to the Royals 4-3. The Big Cat allowed just one run on five hits and had five strikeouts in seven innings. He commanded his slider as well as he has in a while and overall had a very encouraging performance. They are going need more games like that from Armando if they are to maintain their tenuous lead in the AL Central.

Unfortunately, Galarraga's fine effort was wasted as the bullpen blew it twice. Joel Zumaya came into the game in the bottom of the eighth with a 2-1 lead and gave up two runs. He allowed a single, a walk and a two run triple to Willie Bloomquist who earlier homered off Galarraga. After the Tigers tied it at 3-3 in the bottom of the eighth, Fernando Rodney (who tends to pitch poorly in non-save situations) allowed a homer in the ninth to Mike Jacobs to make it 4-3 Royals.

Other than Galarraga's strong outing, the only bright spot was Ryan Raburn who went two for four. The Tigers left fielder homered to put his team up 2-1 in the sixth and then doubled to tie it in the eighth. He also made a base running blunder as he was out trying to stretch the double into a triple. He is about the only Tiger hitting right now though. Since his 1 for 20 start, Ryan has hit .341 and slugged .636 in his last 88 at bats.

Granderson On Pace for 30/30

Curtis Granderson was named to the American League all-star team today along with Justin Verlander and Edwin Jackson. Curtis is not having his best year this year (.256/.341/.467) and is really struggling against left-handed pitchers(.587 OPS versus LHP and .906 versus RHP). However, it's not a stretch to say he has been the second best center fielder in the league this year behind Torri Hunter.

Granderson is second behind Hunter with 50.8 Runs Created and third behind Hunter and Adam Jones with a .354 Weighted On Base Average. He is also 2.1 fielding runs better than league average according to Ultimate Zone Rating. Jones, on the other hand, has been one of the worst center fielders in the league. Franklin Gutierrez is the top center fielder defensively at 12 fielding runs above average but is middle of the pack offensively. So, one can make a strong case that Granderson should be on the team behind Hunter.

The all-star game is a public relations event though. Not many national fans are going to care about his runs created or his Ultimate Zone Rating so how do they promote him as a player? There's that quadruple twenty thing from 2007 but that's getting a little old and, with just two triples so far, he's not likely to come close this year. He is on a pace to hit 36 homers and steal 30 bases though so a 30/30 season is a possibility.

The thirty/thirty combo is less rare than the quadriple twenty. Since 2000, it's been done 16 times including Grady Sizemore of the Indians and Hanley Ramirez of the Marlins in 2008. However, it's never been done by a Detroit Tiger in the history of the franchise. The only one who came close was Kirk Gibson who had 29 homers and 33 stolen bases in 1986 and 27/30 in 1985.

Granderson has never hit more than 23 homers before but is hitting more fly balls than ever this year and hitting them far so 30 homers is not out of the question. The stolen bases may be more difficult because he doesn't always get the green light from Jim Leyland. On a team that is struggling to score runs, Leyland has been more willing to let Grandy run more this year and he has been successful - 15 steals in 19 attempts. As long as he keeps up that success rate, he should continue to get opportunities. Thus, I think 30/30 is well within his grasp.

Tigers Versus Twins: Stat Comparison

With the Tigers getting ready for their big three game series versus the Twins, I wanted to take a look at the two teams statistically. You know the Tigers are up by three games in the only statistic that ultimately matters but how did they get there:

Overall

The two teams are almost identical in run scoring and run prevention. The Tigers have scored 369 runs and allowed just 350 for a run differential of +19. The Twins have 378 runs scored and 348 allowed for a run differential of +30. Based on the Pythagorean Theorem the Twins should be 43-37 and the Tigers 41-37. So the Twins are under performing their expected wins by 2 games which is just the opposite of what they have done in recent years. The Tigers have won 4 more games than their expected wins.

The reason why the Tigers are winning more than the runs scored and runs allowed would suggest is their outstanding record of 24-11 in games decided by one or two runs. The Twins, on the other hand, are 16-22 in those games. Can the Tigers keep that up? It's not likely. The biggest known factor in winning close games is a strong bullpen. The Tigers bullpen has very good at protecting leads this year but it's not a dominant bullpen and not as good as the Twins.

Offense

As mentioned above, the two teams are very close offensively, each having scored 4.7 runs per game. What is interesting is that the Twins should have outscored the Tigers 384 to 352 according to the Runs Created statistic at Fan Graphs. Thus, the Tigers have scored 17 more runs that you would expect given their statistics. The Twins have scored six fewer runs than expected which is just the opposite of last year when they substantially outscored their runs created estimate.

One of the reasons for the Twins scoring more than expected last year was their base running. They were 10 runs above average according to the Equivalent Base Running Runs statistic in 2008. The Tigers were 9 runs below average. The Twins still lead this year but it's closer: +0.5 for the Twins and -4.5 for the Tigers.

The other reason the Twins scored more than expected last year was that they were the best hitting team in baseball with runners in scoring position. This year, the Tigers lead them in that category: .794 OPS for the Tigers versus a .763 OPS for the Twins.

Pitching

The Tigers and Twins are as close in pitching as their are in run scoring. The Twins have a FIP of 4.35 while the Tigers are at 4.38. The Tigers starting pitching has been better - 4.22 ERA versus 4.43 ERA but the Tigers have had the inferior bullpen ERA: 4.46 versus 3.82. The difference in bullpens is the reason why the Tigers probably won't maintain their advantage in close games.

Fielding

I've mentioned many times how good the Tigers fielding has been this year and nothing has changed there. According to the Ultimate Zone Rating statistic, the Tigers are second in fielding with 27.1 runs saved above average. The Twins, on the other hand, are 11.3 runs below average.

Value Statistics

Looking at the individual value statistics at Fan Graphs, the leaders Tigers in overall runs above replacement (including hitting and fielding) are

Inge 31.2
Cabrera 28.0
Granderson 24.3
Polanco 13.7
Everett 9.6
Laird 8.9

The Twins leaders are:

Mauer 40.1
Morneau 25.0
Crede 19.6
Span 16.0
Cuddyer 15.0
Kubel 12.2

The top six Tigers are 115.7 runs above replacement while the top six Twins are 127.9 runs above replacement. So, the Twins are getting more production from their core players. However, the rest of the Tigers are 0.9 runs above replacement while the remaining Twins are 20.7 runs below replacement. Thus, the Tigers are getting far more from their role players.

Conclusions

The Tigers really have not outplayed the Twins this year but have a three game lead thanks to what I consider good fortune in close games. I don't think the Tigers can sustain that so they will need to play better in the second half. Hopefully, they can start by having their bats wake up against the Twins this weekend.

June Could Have Been Worse

The Tigers finished the month of June with a record of 15-13 but it could have been a lot worse. By any other measure other than victories, the Tigers had a poor month. They were outscored by opponents 134-112 which means they were 9th in the league runs scored and second in runs allowed. By the Pythagorean Theorem, a team with those numbers would typically go 11-17, not 15-13.

They were outhit and/or pitched by a wide margin in most categories: .273 to .249 in batting average, .365 to .319 in on base percentage, .439 to .417 in slugging average, .804 to .736 in OPS, 126 to 86 in walks, etc. Those are not the numbers of a winning team. They won because they were able to win a lot of close games: an 11-4 record in games decided by two runs or fewer.

You can look at things a a couple of different ways. You could say that they were lucky to win as much as they did despite being outplayed statistically. Or you might suggest that they have a talent for performing in the clutch and winning close games. Personally, I side more with the former than the latter but they did win those games and the wins can't be taken away. I see it as them going through a period where they played poorly but still managed to win and to keep their division lead.

Whatever way you look at it, they need to start playing better if they want to keep their lead. The next series will be a big one. They will be facing the Twins in the dreaded Metrodome, a place where usually only the Twins get lucky.