Saturday, August 01, 2015

Keuchel and Greinke Top Run Prevention Leader Boards

With the trade deadline finally passed, I'll now present my second installment of sabermetric pitching leaders.   

There is no surefire way to determine the best pitchers in baseball, but a pitcher's job is to prevent runs.  So, it's useful to estimate how many runs pitchers saved their teams compared to an average pitcher.  In the past, I have explored four different ways to do this:    
  • Pitching Runs -  Runs Saved Above Average based on innings and runs allowed. 
  • Base Runs -  Runs Saved Above Average based on batters faced and hits, walks, total bases and home runs allowed.
  • FIP Runs - Runs Saved Above Average based on innings, bases on balls, hit batsmen and home runs allowed and strikeouts.
These measures are discussed in more detail in an earlier post.  After computing them, you can aggregate them using weights depending on which measures you trust the most.  Here, they are calculated using a simple average.

The 2015 American League leaders as of July 31 are listed in Table 1 below.  Astros southpaw Dallas Keuchel is first in Pitching Runs (30), Adjusted Pitching Runs (29), second in Base Runs (29) and third in FIP Runs (25).  That gives him a league-leading 28 runs prevented compared to an average pitcher.  Athletics ace right hander Sonny Gray is second with 27 Runs Prevented.  

The leading Tiger before the deadline trades was David Price with 18 Runs Prevented, good for sixth in the AL.  All of the other Tigers with at  least 75 innings are below average - Anibal Sanchez (-5), Alfredo Simon (-8) and Shane Greene (-18).  Greene is last among AL qualifiers.

Table 1: AL 2015 Run Prevention Leaders
Pitcher
Team
IP
Pitching Runs
Adjusted Pitching Runs
Base Runs
FIP Runs
Average
Dallas Keuchel*
HOU
151
30
29
29
25
28
Sonny Gray
OAK
145.2
29
29
31
20
27
Chris Archer
TBR
141.2
19
14
24
24
20
Scott Kazmir*
***
123.4
22
22
22
14
20
Chris Sale*
CHW
137.2
12
18
16
30
19
David Price*
DET
146
18
20
13
20
18
Corey Kluber
CLE
157
9
9
18
27
16
Felix Hernandez
SEA
137
17
17
15
11
15
Lance McCullers
HOU
76.1
11
11
10
12
11
Clay Buchholz
BOS
113.1
5
9
9
21
11
Jake Odorizzi
TBR
97.2
14
11
8
7
10
Jose Quintana*
CHW
135.1
8
14
-0
17
10
Hector Santiago*
LAA
123.1
17
14
5
-1
9
Carlos Carrasco
CLE
127.1
2
2
7
18
7
Mark Buehrle*
TOR
134
8
10
3
6
7
Adam Warren
NYY
97.2
4
9
8
5
7
Edinson Volquez
KCR
126
6
5
8
7
7
Jesse Chavez
OAK
114.2
5
5
5
11
6
Yovani Gallardo
TEX
127.1
5
10
4
7
6
Jeff Samardzija
CHW
148.1
-0
7
6
12
6
Nate Karns
TBR
115
8
5
7
3
6
Danny Salazar
CLE
119.1
2
3
9
9
6
Garrett Richards
LAA
122.2
7
3
10
2
6
Kyle Gibson
MIN
124
6
9
5
3
6
Data source: Baseball-Rerence.com


The 2015 National League leaders as of July 31 are listed in Table 2 below.  Dodgers right hander Zack Greinke leads in Pitching Runs (42), Adjusted Pitching Runs (39) and Base Runs (36) and is fourth in FIP Runs (22)  That averages out to a league-leading 35 Runs Prevented..  Nationals fire baller Max Scherzer is second with 28 Runs Prevented.   

Table 2: NL 2015 Run Prevention Leaders
Pitcher
Team
IP
Pitching Runs
Adjusted Pitching Runs
Base Runs
FIP Runs
Average
Zack Greinke
LAD
146.1
42
39
36
22
35
Max Scherzer
WSN
150
28
29
28
28
28
Jacob deGrom
NYM
127.1
24
22
27
19
23
Clayton Kershaw*
LAD
140
18
16
24
29
22
Jake Arrieta
CHC
140.2
18
21
20
23
21
Gerrit Cole
PIT
132.1
20
18
18
18
19
Johnny Cueto
CIN
130.2
17
16
20
14
17
Francisco Liriano
PIT
126.1
14
13
19
14
15
Shelby Miller
ATL
133
17
18
13
12
15
Lance Lynn
STL
116.1
14
14
9
16
13
John Lackey
STL
139.1
18
17
9
9
13
Carlos Martinez
STL
124.1
18
17
6
8
12
Michael Wacha
STL
125.1
11
11
13
11
11
Mike Bolsinger
LAD
89
11
10
10
11
10
Matt Harvey
NYM
133
13
10
11
5
10
Noah Syndergaard
NYM
86.2
9
7
10
12
10
Cole Hamels*
PHI
128.2
5
11
9
12
9
Jon Lester*
CHC
132.2
5
7
6
18
9
A.J. Burnett
PIT
135.1
10
9
3
13
9
Chris Heston
SFG
126
9
3
13
9
8
Jason Hammel
CHC
118
5
7
9
11
8
Madison Bumgarner
SFG
138
10
4
7
8
8
Jordan Zimmermann
WSN
128.2
5
7
6
12
8
Tyson Ross
SDP
127.2
5
3
7
14
7
Mike Leake
CIN
136.2
6
6
8
3
6

Data source: Baseball-Rerence.com





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