Sunday, January 25, 2009

Adding arms to the Outfield - 2008

This is the eighth part of my series on fielding in 2008. The table of contents for the rest of the series is listed below:

Intro to series and ranking of first basemen
Second basemen
Third basemen
Shortstop

Left fielders
Center fielders
Right fielders

Earlier this week, John Walsh - a writer for The Hardball Times - wrote his annual report on outfielder arms. With the exception of the Fan Fielding Survey, all the measures that I have discussed in this series have focused on an outfielder's ability to catch fly balls. That is the most important part of outfield defense but the ability to stop the running game by throwing runners out or preventing them to advance is also important.

Using the the retrosheet database, Walsh considered any situations where a runner had a chance to take an extra base on a ball hit to the outfield (e.g. single with runner on first and second base unoccupied). For each outfielder, he counted the number of advancement opportunities, the number of times he threw a runner out (kill) and the number of times he prevented a runner from advancing (hold). From this, he determined how the outfielder compared to league average in each category. Then, using the run expectancy matrix (e.g how likely is it for a run to score with a man on first and third and no outs compared to a runner on first and one out), he then calculated runs saved above/below average for each outfielder.

I have taken these numbers and combined them with the range numbers presented in previous posts. Walsh calculated runs saved per 200 opportunities which is roughly a full season. The range numbers are runs saved per 150 games so they aren't exactly equivalent but close enough. In the three tables below you will find the following for each of the outfield positions:
  • Range - Runs saved per 150 games by range
  • Arm - Runs Saved per 150 games with arm
  • Total - Total Runs Saved per 150 games

Left field highlights (See table 1 below)

Best Arms - Alfonso Soriano (8.0), Fred Lewis (7.5)

Best Range - Carl Crawford (19.0)

Overall Leader - Carl Crawford (16.0)


Table 1: Runs saved by left fielders in 2008

Player

Team

Inn

Range

Arm

Total

Crawford

TB

920

19.0

-3.0

16.0

Lewis

SF

905

8.4

7.5

15.9

Holliday

Col

1,229

6.0

2.6

8.6

Soriano

ChC

937

-1.2

8.0

6.8

Braun

Mil

1,310

5.1

1.2

6.3

Scott

Bal

840

4.0

-3.5

0.5

Willingham

Fla

855

-0.6

-0.2

-0.8

Quentin

CWS

1,147

-5.4

2.9

-2.5

Headley

SD

713

0.1

-6.0

-5.9

Ramirez

Bos/LA

974

-10.2

4.1

-6.1

Burrell

Phi

1,198

-10.8

3.7

-7.1

Ibanez

Sea

1,340

-13.8

2.7

-11.1

Young

Min

1,324

-15.3

3.9

-11.4

Dunn

Cin/Ari

980

-5.4

-6.0

-11.4

Lee

Hou

915

-8.7

-8.4

-17.1

Bay

Bos/Pit

1,344

-10.0

-7.7

-17.7




Center field highlights (See Table 2 below)


Best Arms - Matt Kemp (11.3), B.J. Upton (7.9)

Best Range - Carlos Gomez (14.7)

Overall Leader - Carlos Gomez (17.1)

Tiger Arm - Curtis Granderson: slightly below average (-1.8)


Table 2: Runs saved by center fielders in 2008

Player

Team

Inn

Range

Arm

Total

Gomez

Min

1,271

14.7

2.4

17.1

Victorino

Phi

1,195

5.9

6.7

12.6

Upton

TB

1,248

3.3

7.9

11.2

Beltran

NYM

1,407

11.0

0.0

11.0

Kemp

LA

825

-1.5

11.3

9.8

Jones

Bal

1,102

5.9

3.7

9.6

Ross

Fla

866

7.3

2.2

9.5

Cabrera

NYY

973

1.4

3.0

4.4

Taveras

Col

993

0.6

3.7

4.3

Cameron

Mil

1,057

4.0

-0.7

3.3

Bourn

Hou

1,009

1.4

1.9

3.3

Young

Ari

1,390

6.2

-3.3

2.9

Patterson

Cin

798

1.2

-0.4

0.8

Sizemore

Cle

1,338

6.2

-8.2

-2.0

Gathright

KC

720

-4.4

1.4

-3.0

Granderson

Det

1,188

-2.4

-1.8

-4.2

Rowand

SF

1,275

-8.1

3.6

-4.5

Hunter

LAA

1,193

-0.0

-5.4

-5.4

Hamilton

Tex

912

-6.5

0.7

-5.8

Ankiel

StL

766

-12.8

4.3

-8.5

Crisp

Bos

886

-9.3

N/A

-9.3

Edmonds

ChC/SD

840

-13.1

N/A

-13.1

Wells

Tor

889

-13.8

-1.9

-15.7

McLouth

Pit

1,300

-16.2

0.0

-16.2

Milledge

Was

1,185

-14.1

-5.8

-19.9




Right field highlights (See Table 3 below)


Best Arms - Hunter Pence (9.2), Ryan Ludwick (8.7)

Best Range - Franklin Gutierrez (29.3)

Overall Leader - Franklin Gutierrez (30.9)

Tiger Arm - Magglio Ordonez: Exactly average (0)


Table 3: Runs saved by right fielders in 2008

Player

Team

inn

Range

Arm

Total

Gutierrez

Cle

763

29.3

1.6

30.9

Rios

Tor

820

16.1

N/A

16.1

Fukudome

ChC

1,103

13.5

0.8

14.3

Winn

SF

1,108

14.5

-0.4

14.1

Suzuki

Sea

788

9.4

3.0

12.4

Church

NYM

724

6.9

4.5

11.4

Markakis

Bal

1,367

2.6

7.8

10.4

Pence

Hou

1,366

-1.2

9.2

8.0

Gross

Mil/TB

768

7.0

N/A

7.0

Kearns

Was

734

11.5

-6.3

5.2

Ludwick

StL

962

-4.5

8.7

4.2

Francoeur

Atl

1,328

-3.7

2.6

-1.1

Drew

Bos

886

4.2

-5.9

-1.7

Hart

Mil

1,376

-0.5

-2.0

-2.5

Nady

NYY/Pit

763

-7.4

4.4

-3.0

Guerrero

LAA

839

-8.1

4.8

-3.3

Giles

SD

1,263

10.0

-13.6

-3.6

Upton

Ari

860

-0.7

-4.1

-4.8

Ethier

LA

881

-8.5

1.5

-7.0

Hermida

Fla

1,092

-3.1

-5.1

-8.2

Teahen

KC

756

-0.2

-8.3

-8.5

Ordonez

Det

1,144

-10.6

0.0

-10.6

Griffey Jr.

CWS/Cin

763

-17.6

3.7

-13.9

Dye

CWS

1,312

-11.3

-7.4

-18.7

Abreu

NYY

1,310

-15.0

-4.1

-19.1

Hawpe

Col

1,172

-29.6

-1.1

-30.7

1 comment:

  1. As always, superior stuff here, Lee. Thanks for providing us with the insightful analysis we need.

    ReplyDelete

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