Adding arms to the Outfield - 2008

This is the eighth part of my series on fielding in 2008. The table of contents for the rest of the series is listed below:

Intro to series and ranking of first basemen
Second basemen
Third basemen
Shortstop
Left fielders
Center fielders
Right fielders

Earlier this week, John Walsh - a writer for The Hardball Times - wrote his annual report on outfielder arms. With the exception of the Fan Fielding Survey, all the measures that I have discussed in this series have focused on an outfielder's ability to catch fly balls. That is the most important part of outfield defense but the ability to stop the running game by throwing runners out or preventing them to advance is also important.

Using the the retrosheet database, Walsh considered any situations where a runner had a chance to take an extra base on a ball hit to the outfield (e.g. single with runner on first and second base unoccupied). For each outfielder, he counted the number of advancement opportunities, the number of times he threw a runner out (kill) and the number of times he prevented a runner from advancing (hold). From this, he determined how the outfielder compared to league average in each category. Then, using the run expectancy matrix (e.g how likely is it for a run to score with a man on first and third and no outs compared to a runner on first and one out), he then calculated runs saved above/below average for each outfielder.

I have taken these numbers and combined them with the range numbers presented in previous posts. Walsh calculated runs saved per 200 opportunities which is roughly a full season. The range numbers are runs saved per 150 games so they aren't exactly equivalent but close enough. In the three tables below you will find the following for each of the outfield positions:

• Range - Runs saved per 150 games by range
• Arm - Runs Saved per 150 games with arm
• Total - Total Runs Saved per 150 games

Left field highlights (See table 1 below)

Best Arms - Alfonso Soriano (8.0), Fred Lewis (7.5)

Best Range - Carl Crawford (19.0)

Overall Leader - Carl Crawford (16.0)


Table 1: Runs saved by left fielders in 2008

Player	Team	Inn	Range	Arm	Total
Crawford	TB	920	19.0	-3.0	16.0
Lewis	SF	905	8.4	7.5	15.9
Holliday	Col	1,229	6.0	2.6	8.6
Soriano	ChC	937	-1.2	8.0	6.8
Braun	Mil	1,310	5.1	1.2	6.3
Scott	Bal	840	4.0	-3.5	0.5
Willingham	Fla	855	-0.6	-0.2	-0.8
Quentin	CWS	1,147	-5.4	2.9	-2.5
Headley	SD	713	0.1	-6.0	-5.9
Ramirez	Bos/LA	974	-10.2	4.1	-6.1
Burrell	Phi	1,198	-10.8	3.7	-7.1
Ibanez	Sea	1,340	-13.8	2.7	-11.1
Young	Min	1,324	-15.3	3.9	-11.4
Dunn	Cin/Ari	980	-5.4	-6.0	-11.4
Lee	Hou	915	-8.7	-8.4	-17.1
Bay	Bos/Pit	1,344	-10.0	-7.7	-17.7

Center field highlights (See Table 2 below)

Best Arms - Matt Kemp (11.3), B.J. Upton (7.9)

Best Range - Carlos Gomez (14.7)

Overall Leader - Carlos Gomez (17.1)

Tiger Arm - Curtis Granderson: slightly below average (-1.8)


Table 2: Runs saved by center fielders in 2008

Player	Team	Inn	Range	Arm	Total
Gomez	Min	1,271	14.7	2.4	17.1
Victorino	Phi	1,195	5.9	6.7	12.6
Upton	TB	1,248	3.3	7.9	11.2
Beltran	NYM	1,407	11.0	0.0	11.0
Kemp	LA	825	-1.5	11.3	9.8
Jones	Bal	1,102	5.9	3.7	9.6
Ross	Fla	866	7.3	2.2	9.5
Cabrera	NYY	973	1.4	3.0	4.4
Taveras	Col	993	0.6	3.7	4.3
Cameron	Mil	1,057	4.0	-0.7	3.3
Bourn	Hou	1,009	1.4	1.9	3.3
Young	Ari	1,390	6.2	-3.3	2.9
Patterson	Cin	798	1.2	-0.4	0.8
Sizemore	Cle	1,338	6.2	-8.2	-2.0
Gathright	KC	720	-4.4	1.4	-3.0
Granderson	Det	1,188	-2.4	-1.8	-4.2
Rowand	SF	1,275	-8.1	3.6	-4.5
Hunter	LAA	1,193	-0.0	-5.4	-5.4
Hamilton	Tex	912	-6.5	0.7	-5.8
Ankiel	StL	766	-12.8	4.3	-8.5
Crisp	Bos	886	-9.3	N/A	-9.3
Edmonds	ChC/SD	840	-13.1	N/A	-13.1
Wells	Tor	889	-13.8	-1.9	-15.7
McLouth	Pit	1,300	-16.2	0.0	-16.2
Milledge	Was	1,185	-14.1	-5.8	-19.9

Right field highlights (See Table 3 below)

Best Arms - Hunter Pence (9.2), Ryan Ludwick (8.7)

Best Range - Franklin Gutierrez (29.3)

Overall Leader - Franklin Gutierrez (30.9)

Tiger Arm - Magglio Ordonez: Exactly average (0)


Table 3: Runs saved by right fielders in 2008

Player	Team	inn	Range	Arm	Total
Gutierrez	Cle	763	29.3	1.6	30.9
Rios	Tor	820	16.1	N/A	16.1
Fukudome	ChC	1,103	13.5	0.8	14.3
Winn	SF	1,108	14.5	-0.4	14.1
Suzuki	Sea	788	9.4	3.0	12.4
Church	NYM	724	6.9	4.5	11.4
Markakis	Bal	1,367	2.6	7.8	10.4
Pence	Hou	1,366	-1.2	9.2	8.0
Gross	Mil/TB	768	7.0	N/A	7.0
Kearns	Was	734	11.5	-6.3	5.2
Ludwick	StL	962	-4.5	8.7	4.2
Francoeur	Atl	1,328	-3.7	2.6	-1.1
Drew	Bos	886	4.2	-5.9	-1.7
Hart	Mil	1,376	-0.5	-2.0	-2.5
Nady	NYY/Pit	763	-7.4	4.4	-3.0
Guerrero	LAA	839	-8.1	4.8	-3.3
Giles	SD	1,263	10.0	-13.6	-3.6
Upton	Ari	860	-0.7	-4.1	-4.8
Ethier	LA	881	-8.5	1.5	-7.0
Hermida	Fla	1,092	-3.1	-5.1	-8.2
Teahen	KC	756	-0.2	-8.3	-8.5
Ordonez	Det	1,144	-10.6	0.0	-10.6
Griffey Jr.	CWS/Cin	763	-17.6	3.7	-13.9
Dye	CWS	1,312	-11.3	-7.4	-18.7
Abreu	NYY	1,310	-15.0	-4.1	-19.1
Hawpe	Col	1,172	-29.6	-1.1	-30.7