Batting Projections for 2008

As many of you know, I've been collecting community projections for the Tigers starting line-up in 2008. The purpose was to see how fan projections compare to some of the popular computer forecasts. In theory, knowledgeable Tigers fans should have an advantage over scientific projections because they know more about who is coming off an injury, who has spent the winter getting into better condition, what the starting line-up will be, etc. On the flip side, fans are emotional and that could potentially bias their projections.

I asked fans here and at Motown Sports to give their best guesses at the 2008 statistics of all the starters including the potential platoon in left field. I then aggregated the results to get a community projection for each player. They can be seen below along side five computer projections for each player. The five systems and their inventors are listed below:

• ZIPS – Dan Szymborski at Baseball Think Factory
• CHONE - Chone Smith who blogs at Anaheim Angels all the way
• Marcels - Tom Tango at Tangotiger.net
  
• The Bill James Handbook Projections (BJHB) – Baseball Info Solutions
• MINER - Jeff Sackmann who writes for Beyond the Box Score

The 2008 projections for all players based on each of these systems can be found at Fan Graphs
You will see all of them right away except BJHB. Those can be found on the individual player pages under season stats. The Baseball Prospectus PECOTA projections (the most sophisticated of the scientific systems) are not shown because they are premium content. However, they should be available after the season when I compare the results.

Note that the sample size (N) of fan voters ranges from 14 to 39. This is because I asked for projections for two players each week and fan participation varied from week to week. Not surprisingly, the Tigers fans tended to be more optimistic than the computers. A lot of that is likely bias but but I also feel as some of it is justified as some of the computer forecasts seem a bit too negative this year. The MINER system, in particular , paints a surprisingly bleak picture for the Tigers line-up. The most generous of the scientific sytems was the Bill James Handbook system. Player by player fan and computer comparisons along with my comments are shown below.

Curtis Granderson

System	AB	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	HR	RBI
Fans (N=23)	600	.300	.364	.546	.910	25	81
ZIPS	608	.278	.345	.475	.820	21	87
Chone	575	.277	.345	.475	.820	20	75
Marcel	542	.284	.349	.494	.843	19	66
BJHB	568	.294	.359	.523	.882	22	72
MINER	593	.268	.329	.467	.796	21	74

The fans are much more optimistic about Granderson than most other systems. The computer pessimism is understandable because Granderson had such a such a big and unexpected improvement last year, struggles mightily against lefties and has trouble making consistent contact. Part of the fan optimism might be his popularity but they also are aware that he has exceeded expectations every step of the way and that he has a propensity to correct his shortcomings. I'm not usually big on intangibles but I'm siding with the fans on this one. The BJHB projection also looks reasonable.

Placido Polanco

System	AB	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	HR	RBI
Fans (N=20)	573	.321	.372	.423	.795	8	66
ZIPS	499	.317	.407	.358	.765	7	61
Chone	530	.309	.360	.415	.775	8	58
Marcel	570	.313	.360	.420	.780	8	60
BJHB	574	.312	.360	.423	.783	10	62
MINER	506	.308	.350	.393	.743	6	50

Even the fan community expects a regression for Polanco who batted a career .341 and had an OBP of .388 in 2007 (both career highs). There is not a lot of difference between the fans and most of the systems. I'll go with Marcel and BJHB which have almost identical identical projections.

Gary Sheffield

System	AB	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	HR	RBI
Fans (N=16)	462	.292	.391	.503	.894	26	90
ZIPS	320	.269	.366	.438	.804	14	65
Chone	406	.268	.369	.456	.825	19	66
Marcel	443	.269	.361	.451	.812	20	72
BJHB	490	.280	.384	.488	.872	26	87
MINER	373	.260	.347	.424	.771	15	52

The fans are quite a bit more optimistic than the computers on Sheffield. This is probably because they know that he was playing through an injury in the second half last year, which is something for which the computers probably did not account. The fan rate stats (BA/OBP/SLG) look about right to me. However, I'm worried about his health at age 39 and I fear he may see a lot of time on the disabled list. ZIPS and MINER could be right about his at bat total.

Magglio Ordonez

System	AB	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	HR	RBI
Fans (N=33)	566	.318	.393	.549	.942	27	124
ZIPS	476	.309	.366	.481	.847	17	91
Chone	568	.308	.378	.495	.873	23	99
Marcel	541	.316	.379	.505	.884	21	101
BJHB	580	.314	.383	.517	.900	25	111
MINER	530	.292	.355	.447	.802	18	85

Just as with Polanco, all systems show a regression for Ordonez from his amazing 2007 season. There is a lot of variation between systems - OPS ranges from .942 (fans) to .802 (MINER). I think reality will lie somewhere in between. Marcel or BJHB looks about right to me except that, given the line-up, the fans might be be right about the RBI.

Miguel Cabrera

System	AB	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	HR	RBI
Fans (N=20)	583	.325	.409	.573	.982	34	129
ZIPS	601	.318	.407	.589	.996	33	122
Chone	567	.317	.395	.545	.940	29	109
Marcel	608	.328	.409	.558	.967	26	103
BJHB	606	.327	.411	.579	.990	35	128
MINER	606	.320	.404	.551	.955	31	118

There is not a great deal of disagreement between the systems on Cabrera as the OPS ranges from .996 (ZIPS) to .940 (Chone). I see no reason not to go with the most optimistic projection here.


Carlos Guillen

System	AB	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	HR	RBI
Fans (N=14)	526	.301	.368	.495	.863	21	94
ZIPS	476	.296	.359	.471	.830	15	78
Chone	538	.294	.365	.472	.837	18	89
Marcel	516	.298	.364	.472	.836	18	89
BJHB	562	.297	.368	.466	.834	17	85
MINER	510	.284	.350	.433	.783	14	66

The fans again paint the rosiest picture for Guillen but most of the systems (except MINER) are reasonably close. Again, I'll go with the high end projection of the fans.

Edgar Renteria

System	AB	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	HR	RBI
Fans (N=16)	551	.291	.349	.420	.769	11	68
ZIPS	547	.287	.349	.395	.744	10	62
Chone	517	.282	.342	.400	.742	10	64
Marcel	485	.295	.357	.425	.782	10	57
BJHB	589	.294	.357	.421	.778	12	74
MINER	510	.286	.349	.406	.755	10	52

There is very little variation between the systems on Renteria with OPS ranging from .742 (Chone) to to .782 (Marcel). It doesn't surprise me that the fans are not giving him the most favorable numbers here as the trade (somewhat surprisingly) has not been met especially warmly around the net. I will go with BJHB forecast.


Pudge Rodriguez

System	AB	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	HR	RBI
Fans (N=39)	462	.284	.308	.430	.738	11	63
ZIPS	445	.276	.296	.400	.696	8	60
Chone	505	.267	.295	.402	.697	12	63
Marcel	490	.278	.305	.420	.725	12	58
BJHB	489	.284	.316	.431	.747	13	62
MINER	294	.248	.271	.350	.621	5	28

There is quite a bit of disagreement on Rodriguez as OPS ranges from .621 (MINER) to .747 (BJHB). I'll take the fans prediction here.

Jacque Jones

System	AB	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	HR	RBI
Fans (N=19)	396	.276	.326	.441	.767	12	55
ZIPS	415	.267	.322	.390	.712	10	54
Chone	473	.260	.318	.402	.720	13	59
Marcel	459	.272	.330	.438	.768	15	66
BJHB	443	.278	.332	.433	.765	14	61
MINER	460	.265	.323	.411	.734	13	59

The community is giving fewer at bats to Jones than any other system. This is probably because they they think (hope?) that he will be platooned. Jim Leyland doesn't seem to be big on platooning but he was a lot of right-handed options so I think we'll see a platoon eventually take shape. The fan projection looks ok to me.


Marcus Thames

System	AB	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	HR	RBI
Fans (N=14)	315	.259	.312	.503	.815	18	60
ZIPS	283	.261	.329	.534	.863	20	62
Chone	323	.257	.322	.498	.820	20	52
Marcel	346	.249	.311	.480	.791	20	59
BJHB	345	.267	.329	.545	.874	25	66
MINER	302	.245	.304	.474	.778	18	51

There seems to be a pattern here where the fans are more optimistic about the star players and less optimistic about the lesser players. Thames is no exception as some of the systems like him quite a bit more than the fans do. I think the fans have it about right here though.