2008 Pitching Projections

Yesterday, I listed the 2008 community projections for the Tigers starting line-up and compared them to several computer generated forecasts. Today, I'll talk about projections for the starting pitchers. There were 24 fans which participated in the starting pitcher portion of the project. Whereas the fans were more optimistic than the computers in regards to the hitters, you will probably notice that there is more agreement among the pitching projections. Pitcher by pitcher projections are listed in the tables below.

Justin Verlander

System	IP	ERA	SO	BB	W
Fans (N=24)	212	3.37	193	65	20
ZIPS	189	3.76	156	53	15
Chone	188	3.88	153	61	N/A
Marcel	179	3.87	148	60	15
BJHB	202	3.70	163	66	13
MINER	196	4.09	174	62	16

The one player where the fans and the scientific projections do not agree is Verlander. While the fans are projecting 20 wins, 193 strikeouts and a 3.37 ERA, none of the computer projections give him more than 16 wins, 174 strikeouts or a 3.70 ERA. I'm going with the fan consensus on this one. I'm expecting him to blossom into an elite starting pitcher this year.


Kenny Rogers

System	IP	ERA	SO	BB	W
Fans (N=24)	144	4.48	78	47	10
ZIPS	127	4.11	61	42	9
Chone	130	4.57	67	46	N/A
Marcel	111	4.38	61	40	7
BJHB	145	4.22	76	46	8
MINER	129	4.58	71	42	8

The fans and the scientific systems agree than Rogers will not make it through the entire season healthy and most are predicting somewhere around a league average ERA. A partial season and league average performance is what I expect as well.


Jeremy Bonderman

System	IP	ERA	SO	BB	W
Fans (N=24)	198	4.01	184	62	16
ZIPS	197	4.34	166	51	12
Chone	188	4.02	151	53	N/A
Marcel	169	4.37	147	52	11
BJHB	175	4.11	147	55	11
MINER	193	3.72	183	55	12

All systems are picking Bonderman to bounce back from his injury plagued 2007 season. The MINER system, which was quite pessimistic for many of the hitters, has his ERA at a sparkling 3.72. I don't anticipate an ERA that low but an ERA in the low 4.00s (as predicted by the fans, Chone and BLHB) seems reasonable.


Dontrelle Willis

System	IP	ERA	SO	BB	W
Fans (N=23)	208	4.17	151	72	15
ZIPS	224	4.34	162	77	14
Chone	212	4.50	123	72	N/A
Marcel	185	4.43	136	67	9
BJHB	209	4.22	153	73	12
MINER	213	4.52	135	70	13

All systems predict a bounce back season for Willis as well. The fans have his ERA as low as 4.17. I think it might be a little higher than that but 200 innings and a league average ERA (about 4.50 or a little lower) sounds about right and would probably win a lot of games with the Tigers offense.

Nate Robertson

System	IP	ERA	SO	BB	W
Fans (N=23)	196	4.25	131	65	14
ZIPS	186	4.45	116	60	12
Chone	188	4.40	120	67	N/A
Marcel	170	4.50	115	60	9
BJHB	180	4.40	121	62	10
MINER	191	4.43	140	62	9

There is almost perfect agreement between the computers on Robertson and the fans are not too far off either. There is not a lot to debate here. If he stays healthy, I think we all have a pretty good idea of what he'll do .