Sunday, March 16, 2008

2008 Pitching Projections

Yesterday, I listed the 2008 community projections for the Tigers starting line-up and compared them to several computer generated forecasts. Today, I'll talk about projections for the starting pitchers. There were 24 fans which participated in the starting pitcher portion of the project. Whereas the fans were more optimistic than the computers in regards to the hitters, you will probably notice that there is more agreement among the pitching projections. Pitcher by pitcher projections are listed in the tables below.

Justin Verlander

System

IP

ERA

SO

BB

W

Fans (N=24)

212

3.37

193

65

20

ZIPS

189

3.76

156

53

15

Chone

188

3.88

153

61

N/A

Marcel

179

3.87

148

60

15

BJHB

202

3.70

163

66

13

MINER

196

4.09

174

62

16


The one player where the fans and the scientific projections do not agree is Verlander. While the fans are projecting 20 wins, 193 strikeouts and a 3.37 ERA, none of the computer projections give him more than 16 wins, 174 strikeouts or a 3.70 ERA. I'm going with the fan consensus on this one. I'm expecting him to blossom into an elite starting pitcher this year.


Kenny Rogers

System

IP

ERA

SO

BB

W

Fans (N=24)

144

4.48

78

47

10

ZIPS

127

4.11

61

42

9

Chone

130

4.57

67

46

N/A

Marcel

111

4.38

61

40

7

BJHB

145

4.22

76

46

8

MINER

129

4.58

71

42

8


The fans and the scientific systems agree than Rogers will not make it through the entire season healthy and most are predicting somewhere around a league average ERA. A partial season and league average performance is what I expect as well.


Jeremy Bonderman

System

IP

ERA

SO

BB

W

Fans (N=24)

198

4.01

184

62

16

ZIPS

197

4.34

166

51

12

Chone

188

4.02

151

53

N/A

Marcel

169

4.37

147

52

11

BJHB

175

4.11

147

55

11

MINER

193

3.72

183

55

12


All systems are picking Bonderman to bounce back from his injury plagued 2007 season. The MINER system, which was quite pessimistic for many of the hitters, has his ERA at a sparkling 3.72. I don't anticipate an ERA that low but an ERA in the low 4.00s (as predicted by the fans, Chone and BLHB) seems reasonable.


Dontrelle Willis

System

IP

ERA

SO

BB

W

Fans (N=23)

208

4.17

151

72

15

ZIPS

224

4.34

162

77

14

Chone

212

4.50

123

72

N/A

Marcel

185

4.43

136

67

9

BJHB

209

4.22

153

73

12

MINER

213

4.52

135

70

13


All systems predict a bounce back season for Willis as well. The fans have his ERA as low as 4.17. I think it might be a little higher than that but 200 innings and a league average ERA (about 4.50 or a little lower) sounds about right and would probably win a lot of games with the Tigers offense.

Nate Robertson

System

IP

ERA

SO

BB

W

Fans (N=23)

196

4.25

131

65

14

ZIPS

186

4.45

116

60

12

Chone

188

4.40

120

67

N/A

Marcel

170

4.50

115

60

9

BJHB

180

4.40

121

62

10

MINER

191

4.43

140

62

9


There is almost perfect agreement between the computers on Robertson and the fans are not too far off either. There is not a lot to debate here. If he stays healthy, I think we all have a pretty good idea of what he'll do .

2 comments:

  1. Lee,

    Thanks for putting all these projections together. This is the first year I've given much attention to projections, so I've got a question. It seems that all the well-known systems tend to be pessimistic about batting rates and optimistic about pitching rates. Is that true most years? Or are the computer models just assuming the mounds are going to be raised at some point in the 2008 season?

    If Dontrelle has an ERA below 4.5, I think he'll win a few more than 9 games.

    Thanks,
    Eric

    ReplyDelete
  2. Eric,

    I think they just happen to be pessimistic for Tigers hitters and optimistic for Tigers pitchers this year. I don't think they are the that way for all teams.

    A few of the Tigers hitters had really big seasons last year so they are projecting them to come back to earth this year. They also have a fairly old line-up so they think some players may decline. I agree up to a point but I think they are too pessimistic for some players.

    On the other hand, some of the Tigers starting pitchers had poor seasons last year so they are projecting bounce back seasons in 2008. I agree more with their pitching projections.

    Who know though? They might be right about the hitters. After the season is over, I'm going to look back and see who did better. The computers or the fans.

    Lee

    ReplyDelete

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