Thursday, May 03, 2007

Early Stat Trends

With a month of baseball behind us and the Tigers starting to heat up, I'm going to present my first team statistical summary of the year. In the 4 Tables below, the 2007 Tigers are compared to the 2006 full season Tigers. It's still early but I think enough games have been played so that the following rates and ranks have some meaning.

Overview


2006

2007


Rate

Rank

Rate

Rank

Record

95-67

3

16-11

3

R/G

5.1

5

5.0

5

RA/G

4.2

1

4.6

6


The Tigers are scoring runs at about the same rate this year as last year ranking 5th both years. At the same time, they are giving up runs at a higher rate ranking 6th this year after being 1st last year. However, they have almost the same winning percentage this year (.593) as in 2006 (.586). One thing that is helping them so far is their record in one run games (9-5).


Offense


2006

2007


Rate

Rank

Rate

Rank

BA

.274

9

.255

8

BB/G

2.65

13

3.48

6

K/G

6.99

13

6.81

9

ISO

.174

4

.154

6

OBP

.329

12

.325

9

SLG

.449

5

.410

7

OPS

.777

7

.734

7



The biggest difference in offense so far this year is walks. They are 6th in the league in walks in 2007 as compared to 13th in 2006. Thus, they are scoring runs even though their power (Isolated power and slugging) has not been as good.


Pitching


2006

2007


Rate

Rank

Rate

Rank

FIP

4.36

3

4.22

8

ERA

3.84

1

4.07

6


Both the ERA (6th) and the FIP ERA (8th) are higher in 2007 than they were in 2006. This is likely due to the injury to Kenny Rogers and their inconsistent bullpen.


Fielding


2006

2007


Rate

Rank

Rate

Rank

DER

.704

1

.723

7

HBT Fdg

+56

1

10

4

HBT Grnd

+74

1

4

5

HBT Air

-18

13

6

4


Fielding is harder to measure but the Tigers do not rank as well as last year so far. They were the top team in the American League in Defensive Efficiency (% of balls in play converted into outs) in 2006. They are 7th this year. However, their percentage is actually higher this year which suggests it's not that they aren't fielding well but that the American League is fielding better this year.

The Tigers rank 4th defensively using the The Hardball Times system. In their system, they break down fielding by looking at types of balls hit (ground ball, fly ball, pop up, line drive) . These stats are explained further in an article by Dave Studeman. They indicate that the Tigers are better than league average on both ground balls and air balls.

In conclusion, the Tigers offense is doing things a little different so far this year but they are getting the same results. On the other hand, the pitching and defense have not been as stellar this year. If the Tigers are going to continue winning games at the same rate as last year, they will likely need to improve their pitching/defense in the coming months.

1 comment:

  1. This is a cool piece, Lee. I remember last year I did a thing at mid-season after a friend asked me to talk about the difference between 2005 and 2006.

    I was pretty surprised to find that when you considered, at the time I looked at them, the Tigers were up a half run/game on offense and down a full run/game pitching. When I took their 2005 results and added half a run to their scores and subtracted one from the other teams', it pretty much gave the 2005 team the same winning percentage.

    Perhaps that's a more obvious result than I'm realizing, but I was surprised by the result at the time.

    ReplyDelete

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