More on Run Production

This is the third in a series of posts about run production. The two previous posts can be found here:

Run production 1

Run production 2

In these posts, I have used skill specific batting statistics, batting average (BA), isolated walk percentage (IWP) and isolated power (ISO), to summarize overall hitting performance. The point of this summary is to break down on base percentage (OBP) and slugging percentage (SLG) into pure hitting skills – contact or the ability to get hits (BA), batting eye or the ability to get on base without a hit (IWP) and power or the ability to get extra base hits (ISO). However, it is still useful to have a single number batting summary like OPS which allows us to rank hitters on overall batting performance.

What if we added BA, IWP and ISO to come up with a new measure of total batting performance? Using, all American League teams from 1991-2004, the sum of the three stats explains only 86% of the variation in runs scored whereas OPS (OBP + SLG) explains 91% of the variation in runs scored. To derive the skill specific batting summary, we take BA from SLG to get ISO and BA from OBP to get IWP. Therefore, in order to get a similar number similar to OPS, we would have to count BA twice. That is, our single number (call it OPS2) would be calculated as 2*BA + IWP + ISO. Because OPS2 is almost the same as OPS, it’s not surprising that it also explains 91% of the variation in runs. In conclusion, BA, ISO and IWP are interesting when used separately but they do not provide a better single number summary than OPS.

In the following table, all the players in the American League with 295 or more plate appearances in 2005 are ranked by OPS.

Player	Team	PA	BA	ISO	IWP	OPS
Rodriguez	NYA	715	0.321	0.289	0.159	1.031
Hafner	CLE	578	0.305	0.290	0.162	1.003
Ortiz	BOS	713	0.300	0.304	0.155	1.001
Ramirez	BOS	650	0.292	0.302	0.150	0.982
Giambi	NYA	545	0.271	0.264	0.240	0.975
Guerrero	LAA	594	0.317	0.248	0.153	0.959
Teixeira	TEX	730	0.301	0.274	0.120	0.954
Sexson	SEA	656	0.263	0.278	0.150	0.910
Konerko	CHA	664	0.283	0.251	0.142	0.909
Gomes	TB	407	0.282	0.252	0.133	0.906
Roberts	BAL	640	0.314	0.201	0.117	0.903
Young	TEX	732	0.331	0.182	0.083	0.899
Sheffield	NYA	675	0.291	0.221	0.136	0.891
Peralta	CLE	570	0.292	0.228	0.112	0.885
Dellucci	TEX	518	0.251	0.262	0.156	0.879
Shelton	DET	431	0.299	0.211	0.090	0.870
Tejada	BAL	704	0.304	0.211	0.077	0.865
Sweeney	KC	514	0.300	0.217	0.085	0.864
Matsui	NYA	704	0.305	0.191	0.103	0.863
Ellis	OAK	486	0.316	0.161	0.101	0.861
Varitek	BOS	539	0.281	0.208	0.126	0.856
Martinez	CLE	622	0.305	0.170	0.122	0.853
Dye	CHA	579	0.274	0.238	0.088	0.846
Polanco	DET	378	0.338	0.123	0.077	0.846
Jeter	NYA	752	0.309	0.141	0.122	0.839
White	DET	400	0.313	0.176	0.055	0.837
Gibbons	BAL	518	0.277	0.239	0.061	0.833
Sizemore	CLE	706	0.289	0.195	0.085	0.832
Mora	BAL	664	0.283	0.191	0.091	0.821
Soriano	TEX	682	0.268	0.244	0.063	0.821
Catalanotto	TOR	475	0.301	0.150	0.100	0.818
Stairs	KC	466	0.275	0.169	0.147	0.818
Crisp	CLE	656	0.300	0.165	0.070	0.810
Cantu	TB	631	0.286	0.211	0.041	0.808
Johnson	OAK	434	0.275	0.176	0.120	0.806
Damon	BOS	688	0.316	0.123	0.084	0.805
Brown	KC	609	0.286	0.169	0.094	0.804
DeJesus	KC	523	0.293	0.152	0.100	0.804
Nixon	BOS	470	0.275	0.171	0.125	0.804
Guillen	DET	361	0.320	0.114	0.080	0.803
Crosby	OAK	371	0.276	0.180	0.097	0.802
Pena	DET	295	0.235	0.242	0.125	0.802
Crawford	TB	687	0.301	0.168	0.048	0.800
Mueller	BOS	590	0.295	0.135	0.115	0.799
LeCroy	MIN	350	0.260	0.184	0.134	0.798
Mench	TEX	615	0.264	0.205	0.095	0.797
Young	DET	509	0.271	0.200	0.087	0.796
Ordonez	DET	343	0.302	0.134	0.093	0.795
Chavez	OAK	694	0.269	0.197	0.092	0.794
Hillenbrand	TOR	645	0.291	0.158	0.077	0.792
Ibanez	SEA	690	0.280	0.156	0.114	0.792
Hunter	MIN	416	0.269	0.183	0.103	0.788
Palmeiro	BAL	422	0.266	0.181	0.115	0.786
Suzuki	SEA	739	0.303	0.133	0.099	0.786
Mauer	MIN	554	0.294	0.117	0.131	0.783
Wells	TOR	678	0.269	0.194	0.078	0.783
Molina	LAA	449	0.295	0.151	0.067	0.782
Posada	NYA	546	0.262	0.168	0.132	0.782
Iguchi	CHA	582	0.278	0.160	0.093	0.780
Lopez	BAL	423	0.278	0.180	0.066	0.780
Cano	NYA	551	0.297	0.161	0.037	0.778
Belliard	CLE	587	0.284	0.166	0.062	0.774
Barajas	TEX	450	0.254	0.212	0.072	0.771
Broussard	CLE	505	0.255	0.209	0.080	0.770
Rivera	LAA	376	0.271	0.183	0.061	0.770
Monroe	DET	623	0.277	0.169	0.075	0.768
Swisher	OAK	522	0.236	0.210	0.118	0.768
Martinez	NYA	348	0.241	0.198	0.125	0.767
Lugo	TB	690	0.295	0.108	0.098	0.765
Hinske	TOR	537	0.262	0.168	0.107	0.763
Jones	MIN	585	0.249	0.189	0.114	0.757
Lee	TB	441	0.272	0.154	0.090	0.757
Crede	CHA	471	0.252	0.202	0.076	0.756
Matthews Jr.	TEX	526	0.255	0.181	0.091	0.756
Millar	BOS	519	0.272	0.127	0.119	0.753
Cuddyer	MIN	470	0.263	0.159	0.103	0.752
Blalock	TEX	705	0.263	0.168	0.078	0.749
Figgins	LAA	720	0.290	0.107	0.091	0.749
Huff	TB	636	0.261	0.167	0.103	0.749
Inge	DET	694	0.261	0.158	0.097	0.749
Blake	CLE	583	0.241	0.197	0.096	0.746
Kielty	OAK	433	0.263	0.132	0.127	0.746
Kotsay	OAK	629	0.280	0.141	0.070	0.746
Everett	CHA	547	0.251	0.184	0.089	0.745
Johnson	TOR	439	0.269	0.143	0.089	0.744
Anderson	LAA	603	0.283	0.152	0.051	0.743
Morneau	MIN	543	0.239	0.198	0.102	0.741
Rowand	CHA	640	0.270	0.137	0.088	0.736
Koskie	TOR	404	0.249	0.149	0.125	0.735
Rodriguez	DET	525	0.276	0.168	0.029	0.735
Gonzalez	TB	383	0.269	0.141	0.079	0.733
Winn	SEA	436	0.275	0.116	0.102	0.733
Zaun	TOR	512	0.251	0.122	0.146	0.729
Hudson	TOR	501	0.271	0.141	0.068	0.728
Pierzynski	CHA	497	0.257	0.163	0.080	0.728
Hill	TOR	407	0.274	0.111	0.097	0.727
Kennedy	LAA	460	0.300	0.070	0.081	0.724
Renteria	BOS	692	0.276	0.109	0.085	0.721
Beltre	SEA	650	0.255	0.158	0.075	0.716
Ford	MIN	590	0.264	0.113	0.107	0.716
Hollins	TB	369	0.249	0.169	0.065	0.714
Matos	BAL	433	0.280	0.093	0.086	0.712
Uribe	CHA	540	0.252	0.160	0.072	0.712
Stewart	MIN	599	0.274	0.114	0.073	0.711
Adams	TOR	545	0.256	0.127	0.099	0.707
Hidalgo	TEX	339	0.221	0.195	0.091	0.705
Rios	TOR	519	0.262	0.135	0.065	0.703
Scutaro	OAK	423	0.247	0.144	0.088	0.701
Podsednik	CHA	568	0.290	0.059	0.089	0.700
Long	KC	489	0.279	0.099	0.061	0.699
Erstad	LAA	667	0.273	0.098	0.077	0.696
Bellhorn	BOS	335	0.216	0.144	0.149	0.689
Williams	NYA	546	0.249	0.118	0.101	0.688
Teahen	KC	491	0.246	0.130	0.088	0.685
Boone	SEA	302	0.231	0.154	0.096	0.684
Hall	TB	463	0.287	0.081	0.048	0.683
Berroa	KC	652	0.270	0.105	0.054	0.680
Boone	CLE	565	0.243	0.135	0.083	0.677
Hatteberg	OAK	523	0.256	0.087	0.112	0.677
Buck	KC	430	0.242	0.147	0.065	0.676
Green	TB	375	0.239	0.107	0.121	0.675
Reed	SEA	544	0.254	0.098	0.094	0.675
Cabrera	LAA	587	0.257	0.108	0.077	0.674
Sosa	BAL	424	0.221	0.155	0.103	0.671
Kendall	OAK	676	0.271	0.050	0.104	0.666
Finley	LAA	440	0.222	0.152	0.072	0.645
Logan	DET	356	0.258	0.077	0.072	0.641
Surhoff	BAL	321	0.257	0.099	0.041	0.639
Punto	MIN	439	0.239	0.096	0.083	0.636
Gotay	KC	317	0.227	0.117	0.083	0.632
Infante	DET	434	0.222	0.145	0.042	0.621
Womack	NYA	351	0.249	0.031	0.038	0.556