Sunday, December 18, 2005

More on Run Production

This is the third in a series of posts about run production. The two previous posts can be found here:


Run production 1

Run production 2


In these posts, I have used skill specific batting statistics, batting average (BA), isolated walk percentage (IWP) and isolated power (ISO), to summarize overall hitting performance. The point of this summary is to break down on base percentage (OBP) and slugging percentage (SLG) into pure hitting skills – contact or the ability to get hits (BA), batting eye or the ability to get on base without a hit (IWP) and power or the ability to get extra base hits (ISO). However, it is still useful to have a single number batting summary like OPS which allows us to rank hitters on overall batting performance.


What if we added BA, IWP and ISO to come up with a new measure of total batting performance? Using, all American League teams from 1991-2004, the sum of the three stats explains only 86% of the variation in runs scored whereas OPS (OBP + SLG) explains 91% of the variation in runs scored. To derive the skill specific batting summary, we take BA from SLG to get ISO and BA from OBP to get IWP. Therefore, in order to get a similar number similar to OPS, we would have to count BA twice. That is, our single number (call it OPS2) would be calculated as 2*BA + IWP + ISO. Because OPS2 is almost the same as OPS, it’s not surprising that it also explains 91% of the variation in runs. In conclusion, BA, ISO and IWP are interesting when used separately but they do not provide a better single number summary than OPS.



In the following table, all the players in the American League with 295 or more plate appearances in 2005 are ranked by OPS.


Player

Team

PA

BA

ISO

IWP

OPS

Rodriguez

NYA

715

0.321

0.289

0.159

1.031

Hafner

CLE

578

0.305

0.290

0.162

1.003

Ortiz

BOS

713

0.300

0.304

0.155

1.001

Ramirez

BOS

650

0.292

0.302

0.150

0.982

Giambi

NYA

545

0.271

0.264

0.240

0.975

Guerrero

LAA

594

0.317

0.248

0.153

0.959

Teixeira

TEX

730

0.301

0.274

0.120

0.954

Sexson

SEA

656

0.263

0.278

0.150

0.910

Konerko

CHA

664

0.283

0.251

0.142

0.909

Gomes

TB

407

0.282

0.252

0.133

0.906

Roberts

BAL

640

0.314

0.201

0.117

0.903

Young

TEX

732

0.331

0.182

0.083

0.899

Sheffield

NYA

675

0.291

0.221

0.136

0.891

Peralta

CLE

570

0.292

0.228

0.112

0.885

Dellucci

TEX

518

0.251

0.262

0.156

0.879

Shelton

DET

431

0.299

0.211

0.090

0.870

Tejada

BAL

704

0.304

0.211

0.077

0.865

Sweeney

KC

514

0.300

0.217

0.085

0.864

Matsui

NYA

704

0.305

0.191

0.103

0.863

Ellis

OAK

486

0.316

0.161

0.101

0.861

Varitek

BOS

539

0.281

0.208

0.126

0.856

Martinez

CLE

622

0.305

0.170

0.122

0.853

Dye

CHA

579

0.274

0.238

0.088

0.846

Polanco

DET

378

0.338

0.123

0.077

0.846

Jeter

NYA

752

0.309

0.141

0.122

0.839

White

DET

400

0.313

0.176

0.055

0.837

Gibbons

BAL

518

0.277

0.239

0.061

0.833

Sizemore

CLE

706

0.289

0.195

0.085

0.832

Mora

BAL

664

0.283

0.191

0.091

0.821

Soriano

TEX

682

0.268

0.244

0.063

0.821

Catalanotto

TOR

475

0.301

0.150

0.100

0.818

Stairs

KC

466

0.275

0.169

0.147

0.818

Crisp

CLE

656

0.300

0.165

0.070

0.810

Cantu

TB

631

0.286

0.211

0.041

0.808

Johnson

OAK

434

0.275

0.176

0.120

0.806

Damon

BOS

688

0.316

0.123

0.084

0.805

Brown

KC

609

0.286

0.169

0.094

0.804

DeJesus

KC

523

0.293

0.152

0.100

0.804

Nixon

BOS

470

0.275

0.171

0.125

0.804

Guillen

DET

361

0.320

0.114

0.080

0.803

Crosby

OAK

371

0.276

0.180

0.097

0.802

Pena

DET

295

0.235

0.242

0.125

0.802

Crawford

TB

687

0.301

0.168

0.048

0.800

Mueller

BOS

590

0.295

0.135

0.115

0.799

LeCroy

MIN

350

0.260

0.184

0.134

0.798

Mench

TEX

615

0.264

0.205

0.095

0.797

Young

DET

509

0.271

0.200

0.087

0.796

Ordonez

DET

343

0.302

0.134

0.093

0.795

Chavez

OAK

694

0.269

0.197

0.092

0.794

Hillenbrand

TOR

645

0.291

0.158

0.077

0.792

Ibanez

SEA

690

0.280

0.156

0.114

0.792

Hunter

MIN

416

0.269

0.183

0.103

0.788

Palmeiro

BAL

422

0.266

0.181

0.115

0.786

Suzuki

SEA

739

0.303

0.133

0.099

0.786

Mauer

MIN

554

0.294

0.117

0.131

0.783

Wells

TOR

678

0.269

0.194

0.078

0.783

Molina

LAA

449

0.295

0.151

0.067

0.782

Posada

NYA

546

0.262

0.168

0.132

0.782

Iguchi

CHA

582

0.278

0.160

0.093

0.780

Lopez

BAL

423

0.278

0.180

0.066

0.780

Cano

NYA

551

0.297

0.161

0.037

0.778

Belliard

CLE

587

0.284

0.166

0.062

0.774

Barajas

TEX

450

0.254

0.212

0.072

0.771

Broussard

CLE

505

0.255

0.209

0.080

0.770

Rivera

LAA

376

0.271

0.183

0.061

0.770

Monroe

DET

623

0.277

0.169

0.075

0.768

Swisher

OAK

522

0.236

0.210

0.118

0.768

Martinez

NYA

348

0.241

0.198

0.125

0.767

Lugo

TB

690

0.295

0.108

0.098

0.765

Hinske

TOR

537

0.262

0.168

0.107

0.763

Jones

MIN

585

0.249

0.189

0.114

0.757

Lee

TB

441

0.272

0.154

0.090

0.757

Crede

CHA

471

0.252

0.202

0.076

0.756

Matthews Jr.

TEX

526

0.255

0.181

0.091

0.756

Millar

BOS

519

0.272

0.127

0.119

0.753

Cuddyer

MIN

470

0.263

0.159

0.103

0.752

Blalock

TEX

705

0.263

0.168

0.078

0.749

Figgins

LAA

720

0.290

0.107

0.091

0.749

Huff

TB

636

0.261

0.167

0.103

0.749

Inge

DET

694

0.261

0.158

0.097

0.749

Blake

CLE

583

0.241

0.197

0.096

0.746

Kielty

OAK

433

0.263

0.132

0.127

0.746

Kotsay

OAK

629

0.280

0.141

0.070

0.746

Everett

CHA

547

0.251

0.184

0.089

0.745

Johnson

TOR

439

0.269

0.143

0.089

0.744

Anderson

LAA

603

0.283

0.152

0.051

0.743

Morneau

MIN

543

0.239

0.198

0.102

0.741

Rowand

CHA

640

0.270

0.137

0.088

0.736

Koskie

TOR

404

0.249

0.149

0.125

0.735

Rodriguez

DET

525

0.276

0.168

0.029

0.735

Gonzalez

TB

383

0.269

0.141

0.079

0.733

Winn

SEA

436

0.275

0.116

0.102

0.733

Zaun

TOR

512

0.251

0.122

0.146

0.729

Hudson

TOR

501

0.271

0.141

0.068

0.728

Pierzynski

CHA

497

0.257

0.163

0.080

0.728

Hill

TOR

407

0.274

0.111

0.097

0.727

Kennedy

LAA

460

0.300

0.070

0.081

0.724

Renteria

BOS

692

0.276

0.109

0.085

0.721

Beltre

SEA

650

0.255

0.158

0.075

0.716

Ford

MIN

590

0.264

0.113

0.107

0.716

Hollins

TB

369

0.249

0.169

0.065

0.714

Matos

BAL

433

0.280

0.093

0.086

0.712

Uribe

CHA

540

0.252

0.160

0.072

0.712

Stewart

MIN

599

0.274

0.114

0.073

0.711

Adams

TOR

545

0.256

0.127

0.099

0.707

Hidalgo

TEX

339

0.221

0.195

0.091

0.705

Rios

TOR

519

0.262

0.135

0.065

0.703

Scutaro

OAK

423

0.247

0.144

0.088

0.701

Podsednik

CHA

568

0.290

0.059

0.089

0.700

Long

KC

489

0.279

0.099

0.061

0.699

Erstad

LAA

667

0.273

0.098

0.077

0.696

Bellhorn

BOS

335

0.216

0.144

0.149

0.689

Williams

NYA

546

0.249

0.118

0.101

0.688

Teahen

KC

491

0.246

0.130

0.088

0.685

Boone

SEA

302

0.231

0.154

0.096

0.684

Hall

TB

463

0.287

0.081

0.048

0.683

Berroa

KC

652

0.270

0.105

0.054

0.680

Boone

CLE

565

0.243

0.135

0.083

0.677

Hatteberg

OAK

523

0.256

0.087

0.112

0.677

Buck

KC

430

0.242

0.147

0.065

0.676

Green

TB

375

0.239

0.107

0.121

0.675

Reed

SEA

544

0.254

0.098

0.094

0.675

Cabrera

LAA

587

0.257

0.108

0.077

0.674

Sosa

BAL

424

0.221

0.155

0.103

0.671

Kendall

OAK

676

0.271

0.050

0.104

0.666

Finley

LAA

440

0.222

0.152

0.072

0.645

Logan

DET

356

0.258

0.077

0.072

0.641

Surhoff

BAL

321

0.257

0.099

0.041

0.639

Punto

MIN

439

0.239

0.096

0.083

0.636

Gotay

KC

317

0.227

0.117

0.083

0.632

Infante

DET

434

0.222

0.145

0.042

0.621

Womack

NYA

351

0.249

0.031

0.038

0.556

4 comments:

  1. I don't have the time right this minute to look up what you're using for "IWP", but I often use just OBP minus BA to get a loose "walk rate" number... And, when it's done that way, BA times 2 plus the "walk rate" plus ISO power *is* OPS. It's an interesting way of thinking about offensive value, I agree. And, to me, one of the more interesting things is that sabermetricians have been telling us for years that BA isn't the be-all and end-all stat, yet there it is, weighted twice against "walk rate" and ISO power. Even hitters who have pretty "empty" batting averages (yeah, I'm talking about you, Placido) can have decent offensive seasons if their BA is high enough.

    ReplyDelete
  2. Big Red is my hero.

    It's depressing to see Pudge so far down there, though. Let us hope his power picks up next year.

    ReplyDelete
  3. Charles ListonDecember 24, 2005

    Well, the ISO power number for Ordonez is certainly revealing. At .134 he must be near the bottom for corner outfielders. He is one guy who really needs to improve a lot in 2006.

    ReplyDelete
  4. Jeff, I originally used OBP-BA but then I switched to (BB+HBP)/PA. The first one is good because it allows you to easily go back and forth between BA, SLG, OBP and BA, IWP, ISO. The second one is appealing because (BB+HBP)/PA has more meaning as a stand alone stat. The conclusions will usually be the same regardless.

    I'm also intrigued by how the importance of batting average showed up clearly when I did this exercise.

    ReplyDelete

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