Runs Created by Defense

In my last post, I showed that the Tigers scored almost exactly as many runs as they created sabermetrically in 2007. I wanted to see if the same was true about runs allowed by the defense (pitching and fielding combined). I applied the same runs created formula as I did for batting stats to pitching stats. The team results are listed in Tables 1 and 2 below for the American and National Leagues respectively.

You will notice that 4 teams scored at least 5% runs below their runs created figures and none were more than 5% above. So, there is a little more variability here than there was for offense but the correlation between runs allowed and defense runs created is still strong.

Table 1 shows that the Tigers defense allowed 797 runs which is 18 fewer than the 815 runs they theoretically created. This is a difference of 2.2 percent which is not a huge discrepancy. In 2006, their defense allowed 37 (5.2%) fewer runs than they created. This suggests that they were either more lucky or more skilled at preventing runners from scoring last year. Remember that they also scored more runs than their offense created last year. So, it appears they were less "lucky" all around this year than in 2006.

The luckiest teams were the the Royals who allowed 56 (0r 6.7%) fewer than they created and the Astros (55 or 6.4% fewer). The unluckiest teams were the Orioles who allowed 36 (or 4.4%) more runs than they created and the Cardinals (22 or 2.7% more).

Table 1: Runs Allowed Versus Defense Runs Created in American League in 2007

Team	Runs allowed	Runs Created	difference	% difference
KC	778	834	-56	-6.7
MIN	725	766	-41	-5.4
CLE	704	730	-26	-3.6
BOS	657	680	-23	-3.4
LAA	731	753	-22	-3.0
NYA	777	799	-22	-2.8
DET	797	815	-18	-2.2
SEA	813	830	-17	-2.0
TEX	844	845	-1	-0.1
TOR	699	692	7	1.0
TB	944	934	10	1.1
OAK	758	748	10	1.4
CHA	839	827	12	1.5
BAL	868	832	36	4.4

Table 2: Runs Allowed Versus Defense Runs Created in National League in 2007

Team	Runs allowed	Runs Created	difference	% difference
HOU	813	868	-55	-6.4
PHI	821	865	-44	-5.1
ARI	732	768	-36	-4.7
SF	720	753	-33	-4.4
WAS	783	816	-33	-4.0
CHN	690	716	-26	-3.6
PIT	846	875	-29	-3.3
COL	758	780	-22	-2.9
ATL	733	753	-20	-2.6
CIN	853	876	-23	-2.6
FLA	891	913	-22	-2.4
MIL	776	792	-16	-2.1
SD	666	678	-12	-1.7
NYN	750	759	-9	-1.2
LAN	727	715	12	1.7
STL	829	807	22	2.7