Detroit Tigers Runs Created Analysis - 2007

How many runs does a player contribute to his team’s offense? One way to answer this question is with the statistic “runs created”. Runs created (RC) is not the most popular sabermetric measure today but it was one of the statistics which made Bill James famous. I discussed the calculation of the runs created formula in my recent article on offensive efficiency. The same version of the formula will be used for players except that it will be adjusted for ballpark.

Does RC work? As shown in the efficiency article, if you add up the individual RC for players on a team, it generally comes pretty close to the total runs scored for that team. This is an indication that it is doing a fairly good job of measuring what it is intended to measure: how much each player contributes to his team's runs scored total.

Another statistic is runs created per game or runs created per 27 outs (RC/G). Theoretically, this statistics tells you how many runs your team would score per game if you had the same player bat in all line-up positions. For example, Placido Polanco had an RC/G of 7.0 so you would expect a team of 9 Polancos to score 7 runs per game. That may not be a very practical or realistic use of the statistic. However, it’s a good statistic for comparing the relative offensive contribution of different players.

A player like Brandon Inge who played a lot of games will have more runs created than a player like Ryan Raburn who played only semi-regularly for part of the season. On the other hand, Raburn hit better when he did play so he’ll have more runs created per game. Both stats are useful depending on the question being asked.

As mentioned above, I adjusted RC and RC/G for the impact of the hitter’s home park. A hitter playing his home games in a hitter friendly park like Ameriquest Field in Texas will have his runs created adjusted downward while a hitter playing in a pitcher friendly park like Comerica Park in Detroit will have his runs created adjusted upward. Ballpark factors are very complex but if you want a detailed explanation, I’ll point you toward US Patriot.

Table1 below ranks the Tigers in RC among American League batters. The table shows that Magglio Ordonez contributed more runs (142) to the offense than any other player on the team. He was followed by Curtis Granderson (126), Placido Polanco (105), Carlos Guillen (99) and Gary Sheffield (93). The final column on the table shows where players ranked within the American League. After having no players finish in the top 30 in 2005 and just 2 in 2006, they had 5 this year - Ordonez (2nd), Granderson (4th), Polanco (14th), Guillen (22nd) and Sheffield (30th). There is no question they had a powerful top half of the order this year especially when Sheffield was healthy.


Table 1: Runs Created by Tigers in 2007

Player	PA	RC	Lge Rank
Ordonez	679	142	2
Granderson	676	126	4
Polanco	641	105	14
Guillen	630	99	22
Sheffield	593	93	30
Casey	496	63	78
Inge	577	62	79
Rodriguez	515	57	85
Thames	284	37	123
Monroe	372	31	136
Raburn	148	22	156
Infante	178	18	168
Perez	96	18	170
Rabelo	185	18	172
Santiago	74	9	205
Hessman	57	8	214
Maybin	53	3	245
Perez	71	3	252
Clevlen	10	0	297

Table 2 ranks the Tigers among 133 American League players with 300 or more plate appearances in runs created per game. This table looks a little different because players like Timo Perez and Ryan Raburn produced more when they did play than some of the players with more plate appearances. Of those that played regularly, the same 5 players that topped the RC list also head the RC/G list: Ordonez (9.5 runs per game), Granderson (7.8), Polanco (7.0), Sheffield (6.5) and Guillen (6.2).

Would a line-up of 9 Magglio Ordonezes create 9.5 runs per game? If the 9 Magglios performed exactly the same as the one Magglio did, then the answer would be yes. Whatever way you look at it, Ordonez had a great season finishing second to Alex Rodriguez who created 9.7 runs per game.

Five regulars with 6+ runs created per game is pretty impressive. The problem was the wide gap between those 5 players and the bottom part of the order. In particular, Craig Monroe (2.9 RC/G), Pudge Rodriguez (4.0) and Brandon Inge (4.1) struggled mightily. The good thing was that, after Monroe was released, Perez and Raburn did well in his absence.

As for next year, Rodriguez will be back again mostly for what he contributes as a catcher. Inge will almost surely man the third base position again in 2008 due to his glove and his long term contract. I'd like to see both of them inch closer to 5.0 R/G next year. I wouldn't mind seeing Raburn get a shot at the left field job in 2008 but I think they will try to find a left-handed bat to get the majority of at bats out there.

With Guillen moving to first base, Sean Casey will take his middle of the road 5.1 R/G elsewhere. They will try to recreate those runs at shortstop but it might not be that easy to find a middle infielder who can do that. I'll look at runs created by position later in the week.


Table 2: Runs Created Per Game for Tigers in 2007

Player	PA	R/G	Lge Rank
Ordonez	679	9.5	3
Perez	96	7.9	N/A
Granderson	676	7.8	7
Polanco	641	7.0	13
Sheffield	593	6.5	18
Guillen	630	6.2	30
Raburn	148	5.6	N/A
Hessman	57	5.2	N/A
Casey	496	5.1	71
Santiago	74	5.0	N/A
Thames	284	4.7	N/A
Inge	577	4.1	106
Rodriguez	515	4.0	109
Infante	178	3.8	N/A
Rabelo	185	3.5	N/A
Monroe	372	2.9	131
Maybin	53	2.1	N/A
Perez	71	1.3	N/A
Clevlen	10	0.0	N/A