Thursday, December 29, 2005

Comments Fixed

I got several comments over the last couple of weeks but I couldn't see any of them because my settings were incorrect. I think it's fixed now. Since I like to respond to comments, I'll try go back and answer as many as I can a little later.

FIP Analysis: Tiger Relievers Worse than their ERAs

In my previous post, I did a FIP analysis of American League starting pitchers in 2005. Today, I’ll look at the relievers. There were 103 primary relievers (more relief appearances than starts) with 30 or more innings pitched in 2005. The first table below lists Detroit Tiger relievers in 2005 plus Todd Jones. The second table lists all 103 qualifiers in the league.



In both tables, the key variables are ERA, FIP ERA and FIP-ERA. All are defined in the previous article linked above. Since relievers pitch fewer innings than starters, all of these statistics are less reliable for relievers and should be interpreted with a little more caution.


The Tiger’s best relief pitcher last year was Kyle Farnsworth (4th in the league with a FIP ERA of 2.27). His actual ERA (2.32) was almost the same.



Of those pitchers still on the team heading into 2006, most had FIP ERAs which were substantially higher than their actual ERAs. This includes Fernando Rodney (3.93 versus 2.86), Jamie Walker (4.09 versus 3.70), Craig Dingman ( 4.53 versus 3.66), Chris Spurling (4.82 versus 3.44) and Franklyn German (5.40 versus 3.66). Since FIP ERA is a better predictor of future performance than actual ERA, this may not be a good sign for next year. Keep in mind though that the sample sizes for relievers are small. It’s interesting to note that most of these relievers received more fielding support than the average Tiger starter.


Recently acquired reliever Todd Jones had a good year whether you look at FIP ERA (2.36) or actual ERA (2.10). He is not included in the list of qualifiers because he was in the National League last year.


FIP Rnk

Name

Team

IP

ERA

FIP

DER

FIP- ERA

4

Farnsworth

DET

42.7

2.32

2.27

.711

-0.05

32

Rodney

DET

44.0

2.86

3.93

.714

1.06

42

Walker

DET

48.7

3.70

4.09

.722

0.39

62

Dingman

DET

32.0

3.66

4.53

.719

0.88

77

Spurling

DET

70.7

3.44

4.82

.779

1.38

91

Ginter

DET

35.0

6.17

5.38

.656

-0.79

92

German

DET

59.0

3.66

5.40

.696

1.74

NA

Jones

FLA

73.0

2.10

2.36

.716

0.26


FIP Rnk

Name

Team

IP

ERA

FIP

DER

FIP- ERA

1

Ryan

BAL

70.3

2.43

2.15

.684

-0.28

2

Rivera

NYA

78.3

1.38

2.19

.762

0.82

3

Nathan

MIN

70.0

2.70

2.25

.735

-0.45

4

Farnsworth

DET

42.7

2.32

2.27

.711

-0.05

5

Rincon

MIN

77.0

2.45

2.50

.695

0.05

6

Rhodes

CLE

43.3

2.08

2.58

.735

0.50

7

Betancourt

CLE

67.7

2.79

2.62

.706

-0.17

8

Cabrera

CLE

30.7

1.47

2.67

.723

1.20

9

Jenks

CHA

39.3

2.75

2.73

.687

-0.01

10

Timlin

BOS

80.3

2.24

2.74

.676

0.50

11

Street

OAK

78.3

1.72

2.79

.754

1.07

12

Duchscherer

OAK

85.7

2.21

2.88

.733

0.67

13

Shields

LAA

91.7

2.75

2.91

.738

0.16

14

Escobar

LAA

59.7

3.02

2.98

.730

-0.04

15

Cotts

CHA

60.3

1.94

3.00

.763

1.06

16

Howry

CLE

73.0

2.47

3.12

.785

0.65

17

Rodriguez

LAA

67.3

2.67

3.14

.745

0.46

18

Cordero

TEX

69.0

3.39

3.19

.696

-0.20

19

MacDougal

KC

70.3

3.33

3.28

.675

-0.05

20

Brocail

TEX

73.3

5.52

3.31

.638

-2.21

21

Schoeneweis

TOR

57.0

3.32

3.54

.705

0.22

22

Calero

OAK

55.7

3.23

3.62

.743

0.39

23

Schilling

BOS

93.3

5.69

3.67

.629

-2.02

24

Gordon

NYA

80.7

2.57

3.72

.766

1.15

25

Hermanson

CHA

57.3

2.04

3.76

.757

1.72

26

Villone

SEA

40.3

2.45

3.76

.710

1.30

27

Guardado

SEA

56.3

2.72

3.77

.732

1.06

28

Politte

CHA

67.3

2.00

3.79

.799

1.79

29

Hasegawa

SEA

66.7

4.18

3.80

.726

-0.39

30

Orvella

TB

50.0

3.60

3.82

.709

0.22

31

Sisco

KC

75.3

3.11

3.83

.695

0.73

32

Rodney

DET

44.0

2.86

3.93

.714

1.06

33

Burgos

KC

63.3

3.98

3.95

.684

-0.03

34

Ray

BAL

40.7

2.66

3.95

.729

1.29

35

Benoit

TEX

87.0

3.72

3.99

.752

0.27

36

Guerrier

MIN

71.7

3.39

4.00

.714

0.61

37

Snyder

KC

36.0

6.75

4.01

.618

-2.74

38

Camp

KC

49.0

6.43

4.02

.637

-2.41

39

Affeldt

KC

49.7

5.25

4.03

.671

-1.23

40

Frasor

TOR

74.7

3.25

4.04

.711

0.79

41

Williams

BAL

76.3

3.30

4.06

.731

0.76

42

Walker

DET

48.7

3.70

4.09

.722

0.39

43

Speier

TOR

66.7

2.56

4.14

.789

1.58

44

Loe

TEX

92.0

3.42

4.15

.733

0.73

45

Borowski

TB

35.3

3.82

4.19

.785

0.37

46

Myers

BOS

37.3

3.13

4.19

.759

1.05

47

Donnelly

LAA

65.3

3.72

4.20

.729

0.48

48

Baez

TB

72.3

2.86

4.24

.729

1.38

49

Sauerbeck

CLE

35.7

4.04

4.24

.684

0.20

50

Wasdin

TEX

75.7

4.28

4.28

.722

0.00

51

Kennedy

OAK

60.7

4.45

4.33

.702

-0.12

52

Batista

TOR

74.7

4.10

4.35

.703

0.25

53

Papelbon

BOS

34.0

2.65

4.36

.678

1.71

54

Downs

TOR

94.0

4.31

4.37

.712

0.06

55

Nelson

SEA

36.7

3.93

4.40

.718

0.47

56

Wilson

TEX

48.0

6.94

4.42

.648

-2.52

57

Halama

BOS

43.7

6.18

4.46

.677

-1.72

58

Mateo

SEA

88.3

3.06

4.47

.757

1.41

59

Davis

CLE

40.3

4.69

4.48

.675

-0.21

60

Riske

CLE

72.7

3.10

4.49

.790

1.40

61

Marte

CHA

45.3

3.77

4.50

.661

0.72

62

Dingman

DET

32.0

3.66

4.53

.719

0.88

63

Baldwin

BAL

39.3

3.20

4.54

.754

1.33

64

Putz

SEA

60.0

3.60

4.55

.724

0.95

65

Gregg

LAA

64.3

5.04

4.56

.685

-0.48

66

Yan

LAA

66.7

4.59

4.62

.724

0.03

67

Shouse

TEX

53.3

5.23

4.64

.718

-0.59

68

Gonzalez

BOS

56.0

6.11

4.65

.702

-1.46

69

Vizcaino

CHA

70.0

3.73

4.65

.704

0.92

70

Yabu

OAK

58.0

4.50

4.65

.674

0.15

71

Crain

MIN

79.7

2.71

4.69

.789

1.98

72

Wickman

CLE

62.0

2.47

4.69

.741

2.22

73

Chulk

TOR

72.0

3.88

4.73

.739

0.85

74

Mulholland

MIN

59.0

4.27

4.74

.729

0.47

75

Peralta

LAA

34.7

3.89

4.79

.768

0.90

76

Rodriguez

NYA

32.3

5.01

4.79

.705

-0.22

77

Spurling

DET

70.7

3.44

4.82

.779

1.38

78

Sturtze

NYA

78.0

4.73

4.84

.730

0.11

79

Walker

TOR

84.0

3.54

4.84

.737

1.30

80

Dominguez

TEX

70.3

4.22

4.97

.707

0.75

81

Julio

BAL

71.7

5.90

5.07

.713

-0.83

82

Miller

TB

44.3

4.06

5.09

.687

1.03

83

Romero

MIN

57.0

3.47

5.12

.733

1.64

84

Colome

TB

45.3

4.57

5.16

.701

0.59

85

Carter

TB

57.0

4.89

5.19

.729

0.29

86

Embree

BOS

37.7

7.65

5.19

.699

-2.46

87

Nunez

KC

53.7

7.55

5.22

.652

-2.32

88

Quantrill

NYA

32.0

6.75

5.25

.653

-1.50

89

Cruz

OAK

32.7

7.44

5.36

.649

-2.08

90

Foulke

BOS

45.7

5.91

5.36

.690

-0.55

91

Ginter

DET

35.0

6.17

5.38

.656

-0.79

92

German

DET

59.0

3.66

5.40

.696

1.74

93

Harper

TB

73.3

6.75

5.48

.695

-1.27

94

Reed

BAL

32.7

6.61

5.51

.684

-1.10

95

Gobble

KC

53.7

5.70

5.56

.678

-0.14

96

Wood

KC

115.0

4.46

5.62

.709

1.16

97

Mahay

TEX

35.7

6.81

5.64

.652

-1.17

98

Proctor

NYA

44.7

6.04

5.64

.731

-0.41

99

Kline

BAL

61.0

4.28

5.70

.742

1.42

100

Rincon

OAK

37.3

4.34

5.74

.748

1.40

101

Thornton

SEA

57.0

5.21

6.24

.727

1.03

102

Brazelton

TB

71.0

7.61

6.75

.681

-0.85

103

League

TOR

35.7

6.56

6.88

.704

0.32

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