Shutdowns, Meltdowns and John Axford

Continuing with the Shutdown and Meltdown theme, I'll take a look at the National League relievers today.  Remember that a pitcher gets credit for a shutdown (SD) whenever he substantially enhances his teams chance of winning a game (sum of Win Probability Added for the game is 6% or better).  He is charged with a Meltdown (MD) if he significantly hampers his team's chance of winning  (sum of Win Probaility Added for the game is less than -6%).

Using traditional methods, many recognized Brewers reliever John Axford as the best reliever in the National League.  After all, he tied for the league lead in saves (46) and led in Save Percentage (95.8%).  We know that Saves are not always the best measure of reliever effectiveness.  How does Axford rate in terms of Shutdowns and Meltdowns?

Table 1 below shows that Axford had 43 Shutdowns in 74 games for a 58.1 SD%.  The top SD% went to Phillies right-hander Ryan Madson (58.3%).  Madson failed to make the NL top ten in saves (he had 32) because he did not start the season as the Phillies closer and later missed time with a hand injury.

Table 1: NL Shutdown Percentage Leaders

Player	Team	G	SD	SD%
J.J. Putz	ARI	60	35	58.3
John Axford	MIL	74	43	58.1
Ryan Madson	PHI	62	35	56.5
Tyler Clippard	WSN	72	40	55.6
Jonny Venters	ATL	85	47	55.3
Drew Storen	WSN	73	40	54.8
Francisco Rodriguez	NL	73	37	50.7
Antonio Bastardo	PHI	64	32	50.0
Joel Hanrahan	PIT	70	35	50.0
Francisco Cordero	CIN	68	34	50.0
Brian Wilson	SFG	57	28	49.1
Leo Nunez	FLA	68	33	48.5
Heath Bell	SDP	64	31	48.4
David Hernandez	ARI	74	35	47.3
Eric O'Flaherty	ATL	78	36	46.2

Along with his excellent SD%. Axford was also very good at avoiding MDs.  Table 2 tells us that the Brewers closer had 3 MDs in 74 games for a league lowest 4.1% MD%. The biggest surprise on this list might be James Russell of the Cubs.  The Chicago left-hander had just 3 MDs in 59 games for a MD% of 5.1%.  It's surprising because Russell's more traditional numbers - 4.12 ERA and 1.33 WHIP - were relatively modest.  Part of the reason may be that he was not generally used in high-leverage situations.

Table 2: NL Meltdown Percentage Leaders

Player	Team	G	MD	MD%
John Axford	MIL	74	3	4.1
James Russell	CHC	59	3	5.1
Kenley Jansen	LAD	51	3	5.9
Ryan Madson	PHI	62	4	6.5
Jonny Venters	ATL	85	6	7.1
Josh Spence	SDP	40	3	7.5
LaTroy Hawkins	MIL	52	4	7.7
Joe Paterson	ARI	62	5	8.1
Javy Guerra	LAD	47	4	8.5
Mike MacDougal	LAD	69	6	8.7
Francisco Cordero	CIN	68	6	8.8
Eric O'Flaherty	ATL	78	7	9.0
Ramon Ramirez	SFG	66	6	9.1
Sergio Romo	SFG	65	6	9.2
Enerio Del Rosario	HOU	54	5	9.3

Finally, Table 3 combines SD's and MD's to give us SD/MD Ratio.  Axford led the National League with a 14.3 (43/3) SD/MD Ratio.  So, the sabermetric metrics are in agreement with the traditional statistics that Axford was the league's top reliever.  One thing SD/MD Ratio does is the recognize some of the league's most effective non-closers.  For examplw, Kenley Jansen of the Dodgers, Eric O'Flaherty of the Braves and Latroy Hawkins of the Brewers all finished in the top ten despite having five saves between them.

Table 3: NL Shutdown/Meldown Ratio Leaders 

Player	Team	G	SD	MD	SD/MD
John Axford	MIL	74	43	3	14.3
Ryan Madson	PHI	62	35	4	8.8
Jonny Venters	ATL	85	47	6	7.8
Kenley Jansen	LAD	51	17	3	5.7
Francisco Cordero	CIN	68	34	6	5.7
Eric O'Flaherty	ATL	78	36	7	5.1
Javy Guerra	LAD	47	20	4	5.0
J.J. Putz	ARI	60	35	7	5.0
LaTroy Hawkins	MIL	52	19	4	4.8
Francisco Rodriguez	NL	73	37	8	4.6
David Hernandez	ARI	74	35	8	4.4
Joel Hanrahan	PIT	70	35	8	4.4
Leo Nunez	FLA	68	33	8	4.1
Antonio Bastardo	PHI	64	32	8	4.0
Drew Storen	WSN	73	40	10	4.0