Using traditional methods, many recognized Brewers reliever John Axford as the best reliever in the National League. After all, he tied for the league lead in saves (46) and led in Save Percentage (95.8%). We know that Saves are not always the best measure of reliever effectiveness. How does Axford rate in terms of Shutdowns and Meltdowns?
Table 1 below shows that Axford had 43 Shutdowns in 74 games for a 58.1 SD%. The top SD% went to Phillies right-hander Ryan Madson (58.3%). Madson failed to make the NL top ten in saves (he had 32) because he did not start the season as the Phillies closer and later missed time with a hand injury.
Table 1: NL Shutdown Percentage Leaders
Team | G | SD | SD% | |
J.J. Putz | ARI | 60 | 35 | 58.3 |
John Axford | MIL | 74 | 43 | 58.1 |
Ryan Madson | PHI | 62 | 35 | 56.5 |
Tyler Clippard | WSN | 72 | 40 | 55.6 |
Jonny Venters | ATL | 85 | 47 | 55.3 |
Drew Storen | WSN | 73 | 40 | 54.8 |
Francisco Rodriguez | NL | 73 | 37 | 50.7 |
Antonio Bastardo | PHI | 64 | 32 | 50.0 |
Joel Hanrahan | PIT | 70 | 35 | 50.0 |
Francisco Cordero | CIN | 68 | 34 | 50.0 |
Brian Wilson | SFG | 57 | 28 | 49.1 |
Leo Nunez | FLA | 68 | 33 | 48.5 |
Heath Bell | SDP | 64 | 31 | 48.4 |
David Hernandez | ARI | 74 | 35 | 47.3 |
Eric O'Flaherty | ATL | 78 | 36 | 46.2 |
Along with his excellent SD%. Axford was also very good at avoiding MDs. Table 2 tells us that the Brewers closer had 3 MDs in 74 games for a league lowest 4.1% MD%. The biggest surprise on this list might be James Russell of the Cubs. The Chicago left-hander had just 3 MDs in 59 games for a MD% of 5.1%. It's surprising because Russell's more traditional numbers - 4.12 ERA and 1.33 WHIP - were relatively modest. Part of the reason may be that he was not generally used in high-leverage situations.
Table 2: NL Meltdown Percentage Leaders
Player | Team | G | MD | MD% |
John Axford | MIL | 74 | 3 | 4.1 |
James Russell | CHC | 59 | 3 | 5.1 |
Kenley Jansen | LAD | 51 | 3 | 5.9 |
Ryan Madson | PHI | 62 | 4 | 6.5 |
Jonny Venters | ATL | 85 | 6 | 7.1 |
Josh Spence | SDP | 40 | 3 | 7.5 |
LaTroy Hawkins | MIL | 52 | 4 | 7.7 |
Joe Paterson | ARI | 62 | 5 | 8.1 |
Javy Guerra | LAD | 47 | 4 | 8.5 |
Mike MacDougal | LAD | 69 | 6 | 8.7 |
Francisco Cordero | CIN | 68 | 6 | 8.8 |
Eric O'Flaherty | ATL | 78 | 7 | 9.0 |
Ramon Ramirez | SFG | 66 | 6 | 9.1 |
Sergio Romo | SFG | 65 | 6 | 9.2 |
Enerio Del Rosario | HOU | 54 | 5 | 9.3 |
Finally, Table 3 combines SD's and MD's to give us SD/MD Ratio. Axford led the National League with a 14.3 (43/3) SD/MD Ratio. So, the sabermetric metrics are in agreement with the traditional statistics that Axford was the league's top reliever. One thing SD/MD Ratio does is the recognize some of the league's most effective non-closers. For examplw, Kenley Jansen of the Dodgers, Eric O'Flaherty of the Braves and Latroy Hawkins of the Brewers all finished in the top ten despite having five saves between them.
Table 3: NL Shutdown/Meldown Ratio Leaders
Player | Team | G | SD | MD | SD/MD |
John Axford | MIL | 74 | 43 | 3 | 14.3 |
Ryan Madson | PHI | 62 | 35 | 4 | 8.8 |
Jonny Venters | ATL | 85 | 47 | 6 | 7.8 |
Kenley Jansen | LAD | 51 | 17 | 3 | 5.7 |
Francisco Cordero | CIN | 68 | 34 | 6 | 5.7 |
Eric O'Flaherty | ATL | 78 | 36 | 7 | 5.1 |
Javy Guerra | LAD | 47 | 20 | 4 | 5.0 |
J.J. Putz | ARI | 60 | 35 | 7 | 5.0 |
LaTroy Hawkins | MIL | 52 | 19 | 4 | 4.8 |
Francisco Rodriguez | NL | 73 | 37 | 8 | 4.6 |
David Hernandez | ARI | 74 | 35 | 8 | 4.4 |
Joel Hanrahan | PIT | 70 | 35 | 8 | 4.4 |
Leo Nunez | FLA | 68 | 33 | 8 | 4.1 |
Antonio Bastardo | PHI | 64 | 32 | 8 | 4.0 |
Drew Storen | WSN | 73 | 40 | 10 | 4.0 |
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