Monday, December 12, 2011

Gas Can Relievers of 2011

In earlier posts, I used Shutdowns and Meltdowns to identify some of the best relievers in the American and National leagues in 2011.  Remember that a pitcher gets credit for a shutdown (SD) whenever he substantially enhances his teams chance of winning a game (sum of Win Probability Added for the game is 6% or better).  He is charged with a Meltdown (MD) if he significantly hampers his team's chance of winning  (sum of Win Probaility Added for the game is less than -6%).

Today, I'm going to find the worst relievers of the year.  Table 1 list the pitchers who were most prone to Meltdowns; the pitchers most likely to pour gas on the fire.  When Washington Nationals reliever Doug Slaten came into a game in 2011, there was a good chance something bad was going to happen.  Slaten pitched in only 31 games, but had 11 MDs for an MD% of 35.5%.

The only Tiger on the list was Phil Coke with 8 SDs in 34 games (23.5%).  In the American League, Orioles fans got nervous when Jeremy Accardo entered a game.  The Baltimore right hander  had 9 MDs in 31 games for a 29.0 MD%.  The only Tiger on the list was lefty Phil Coke with a 23.5 MD%.

Table 1: MLB Worst Meltdown Percentages


Player
Team
G
MD
MD%
Doug Slaten
WSN
31
11
35.5
Jeremy Accardo
BAL
31
9
29.0
J.P. Howell
TBR
46
13
28.3
Jason Berken
BAL
40
11
27.5
Aaron Crow
KCR
57
15
26.3
Matt Guerrier
LAD
70
18
25.7
Scott Proctor
MLB
39
10
25.6
Marco Estrada
MIL
36
9
25.0
Bobby Parnell
NYM
60
15
25.0
Blake Hawksworth
LAD
49
12
24.5
Kerry Wood
CHC
55
13
23.6
Mike Dunn
FLA
72
17
23.6
Phil Coke
DET
34
8
23.5
Wilton Lopez
HOU
73
17
23.3
Fernando Rodney
LAA
39
9
23.1

Not only did Slaten have 11 MDs, he also had just one SD.  As seen in Table 2, this combination gave him a major-league worst 0.1 SD/MD Ratio.  The worst AL pitcher in this category was Oriole reliever Jason Berken with a Ratio of 0.3 (3/11).  The Tigers had no pitchers anywhere near this list.  Fortunately, Coke made up for his propensity for Meltdowns somewhat with 12 Shutdowns and a 1.5 SD/MD Ratio.

Table 2: MLB Worst Shutdown/Meltdown Ratios   
 

Player
Team
G
SD
MD
SD/MD
Doug Slaten
WSN
31
1
11
0.1
J.C. Romero
NL
36
1
5
0.2
Jason Berken
BAL
40
3
11
0.3
John Grabow
CHC
58
2
6
0.3
Hong-Chih Kuo
LAD
40
3
8
0.4
Marco Estrada
MIL
36
4
9
0.4
Trever Miller
MLB
48
4
9
0.4
J.P. Howell
TBR
46
6
13
0.5
David Purcey
AL
33
3
6
0.5
Burke Badenhop
FLA
50
6
11
0.5
D.J. Carrasco
NYM
41
4
7
0.6
Tim Byrdak
NYM
72
8
13
0.6
Cristhian Martinez
ATL
46
5
8
0.6
Jeremy Accardo
BAL
31
6
9
0.7
Blake Hawksworth
LAD
49
8
12
0.7

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