Tigers team statistical summary for 2008

You already know the Tigers had an awful year and that they disappointed in almost every aspect of the game in 2008. My annual end of season statistical summary presented in tables 1-4 below confirm this but also suggest that fielding may have been the biggest contributor to their decline from 2007 to 2008.

The Tigers won 14 fewer games this year and it probably seemed like more than that. As shown in Table 1. the Bengals offensive output dropped from 5.5 runs per game in 2007 runs to 5.1 runs per game in 2008. Offense was down a little bit in the American League this year but with the additions of Miguel Cabrera and Edgar Renteria, the Tigers were expected to be one of the two best offenses in the league. Instead, they dropped from 2nd in the league last year to fourth this year.

On the other side of the ball, the Tigers allowed almost a half run more this year going from 4.9 runs allowed per game last year to 5.3 this year. Their rank dropped from 9th to 12th.

Table 1: Overall

	2007		2008
	#	Rank	#	Rank
Record	88-74	5	74-88	12
R/G	5.5	2	5.1	4
RA/G	4.9	9	5.3	12

Table 2 shows that the biggest difference offensively between 2007 and 2008 was batting average. They dropped from .287 (2nd in league) in 2007 to .271 (5th in league) in 2008. Their slugging went from 2nd best last year to 4th best this year. One area where they did improve was drawing walks going from 2.93 per game last year to 3.53 this year. This allowed them to remain 4th in on base percentage.

Not shown in the table but a big factor was their batting average with runners in scoring position dropping from .311 in 2007 to to .268 in 2008. The Twins, on the other hand, went from .276 to .305. This explains why they scored more runs than the Tigers this year despite having an OPS that that was 36 points lower. I think it was just one of those flukey things which should not be a problem for the Tigers next year.

Table 2: Offense

	2007		2008
	#	Rank	#	Rank
BA	.287	2	.271	5
BB	2.93	12	3.53	5
K	6.5	7	6.6	10
ISO	.171	2	.173	3
OBP	.345	4	.340	4
SLG	.458	2	.444	4
OPS	.802	3	.784	3

Table 3 shows that their ERA was already below average in 2007 and got worse this year. It jumped from 4.57 to 4.90 and both their starters (4.68 to 5.03) and relievers (4.37 to 4.65) contributed to the decline. Interestingly, their Fielding Independent Pitching ERA was almost the same as last year which suggests that fielding may have been the biggest contributor to this year's increase in runs allowed.

Table 3: Pitching

	2007		2008
	#	Rank	#	Rank
FIP	4.73	11	4.75	12
ERA	4.57	9	4.90	12
SP ERA	4.68	9	5.03	11
RP ERA	4.37	11	4.65	12

Fielding is harder to measure but Table 4 illustrates that the Tigers dropped off a lot defensively this year. After ranking third in the American League in Defensive Efficiency (% of balls in play converted into outs) in 2007, they dropped to 11th this year.

Using The Hardball Times plus/minus stat, they ranked 3rd in fielding last year and dropped to 12th this year. In this system, they break down fielding by looking at types of balls hit (ground ball, fly ball, pop up, line drive) . These stats are explained further in an article by Dave Studeman. This system is denoted +/- in the table.

Looking at Revised Zone Rating (RZR), they were 4th in 2007 and 12th this year. Each position on the field has a zone around it and a player's RZR is the proportion of balls hit into his zone which he converts into outs. Team RZR is the proportion of balls hit into all fielding zones which are converted into outs. Balls not hit into any zone are not considered in the calculation. For a further discussion of DER, RZR and other fielding statistics, check out Fielding Stats at The Hardball Times by Dave Studeman.

The chart below also breaks RZR into infield and outfield. The table shows that both their infield and outfield defenses slipped substantially this year. The infield ranked 6th in 2007 and 10th in 2008. Similarly, the outfield defense went from 1st to 12th. I should note that the Tigers outfield made more out of zone plays than most teams this year so that might bump their rank up a couple of notches. Still, their overall defense was down a lot this year.

Table 4: Fielding

	2007		2008
	#	Rank	#	Rank
DER	.705	3	.685	11
+/-	+45	3	-54	12
Overall	.829	4	.817	12
Infield	.781	6	.771	10
Outfield	.898	1	.885	12

In summary, the Tigers failed in most aspects of the game this year. Their offense disappointed, their pitching continued to be below average and their fielding declined substantially. They can improve their offense simply by hitting better with runners in scoring position. Since they did so well in that area in 2007 with many of the same players, there is no reason why they can't improve their BA with RISP in 2009.

Pitching will be more difficult. They need Jeremy Bonderman to be healthy and they need Justin Verlander to bounce back in 2009. They will also need to add some pitching especially relievers. I would expect a very different bullpen in 2009.

Improving their defense is one of their biggest tasks of the off-season. They have already made a move to improve their infield defense with the move of Brandon Inge to third base. There is also the possibilty that they will add a strong fielding shortstop to take over for Edgar Renteria. Their outfield defense could improve if Curtis Granderson (who struggled defensively this year) returns to form in 2009.

In the coming weeks, I'll be breaking the team stats down into individual stats so we can a better idea of specifically which players failed and where they need to improve for next year.