Tigers Runs Created analysis for 2008

How many runs does a player contribute to his team’s offense? One way to answer this question is with the statistic “runs created”. Runs created (RC) is not the most popular sabermetric measure today but it was one of the statistics which made Bill James famous. I discussed the calculation of the runs created formula in my recent article on offensive efficiency. The same version of the formula will be used for players except that it will be adjusted for ballpark.

Does RC work? As shown in the efficiency article, the team runs created comes close to the teams runs scored in most cases. Similarly, if you add the runs created for individual players on a team, it will also usually come fairly close to the team runs. This is an indication that runs created is doing a pretty good job of measuring what it is intended to measure: how much each player contributes to his team's runs scored total.

Another statistic is runs created per game or runs created per 27 outs (RC/G). Theoretically, this statistics tells you how many runs your team would score per game if you had the same player bat in all line-up positions. For example, Magglio Ordonez had an RC/G of 6.0 so you would expect a team of 9 Ordonez's to score 6 runs per game. That may not be a very practical or realistic use of the statistic. However, it’s a good statistic for comparing the relative offensive contribution of different players.

A player like Edgar Renteria who played a lot of games will have more runs created than a player like Matt Joyce who played only semi-regularly for part of the season. On the other hand, Joyce hit better when he did play so he’ll have more runs created per game. Both stats are useful depending on the question being asked.

As mentioned above, I adjusted RC and RC/G for the impact of the hitter’s home park (according to US Patriot). A hitter playing his home games in a hitter friendly park like Cellular Field in Chicago will have his runs created adjusted downward while a hitter playing in a pitcher friendly park like Safeco Field in Seattle will have his runs created adjusted upward.

You might be surprised that Comerica Park has a neutral park for run scoring over the past five years and thus no adjustments are made for the Tigers. Other American League park factors range from 108 (8% more runs than the average park) to Safeco (6% below average).

Table1 below ranks the Tigers in RC among American League batters. The table shows that Miguel Cabrera contributed more runs (108) to the offense than any other player on the team. He was followed by Curtis Granderson (100), Magglio Ordonez (94) and Placido Placido (85). After having five players finish in the top 30 in 2007, they had only three this year - Cabrera (8th), Granderson (15th) and Ordonez (22nd).


Table 1: Runs Created by Tigers in 2008

Player	PA	RC	Lge Rank
Cabrera	684	108	8
Granderson	629	100	15
Ordonez	623	94	22
Polanco	629	85	34
Guillen	489	69	53
Renteria	547	58	77
Sheffield	482	52	90
Thames	342	44	107
Rodriguez	328	42	116
Inge	407	40	119
Joyce	277	39	***
Santiago	156	26	***
Raburn	199	20	***
Thomas	133	18	***
Larish	111	11	***
Ryan	50	9	***
Hessman	31	8	***
Jones	90	4	***
Hollimon	25	4	***
Clevlen	28	2	***
Sardinha	49	2	***

Table 2 ranks the Tigers among 136 American League players with 300 or more plate appearances in runs created per game. This table looks a little different because players like Mike Hessman, Dusty Ryan and Ramon Santiago produced more when they did play than some of the players with more plate appearances. Of those that played regularly, Granderson topped the list with 6.5 runs created followed by Cabrera (6.3), Ordonez (6.0) and Guillen (5.9).

Granderson, Cabrera and Ordonez did well and Guillen did OK when healthy but it was a far cry from 2007 when Ordonez created an amazing 9.3 RC/G and Polanco and Granderson produced over 7 per game. They were also not helped by the fact that three regulars or semi-regulars were at 4 RC/G or lower - Gary Sheffield, Edgar Renteria and Brandon Inge. They were helped by some nice performances off the bench by Matt Joyce, Clete Thomas, Ramon Santiago, etc.

For next year, we can hope for small improvements from Granderson, Cabrera, Inge and Renteria (if he is still around). Sheffield could also give them a boost if healthy but I wouldn't bank on it. There is also potential for declines with Polanco, Guillen and Ordonez getting older. They will probably need contributions from youth (Joyce, Ryan, etc) and new players (such as whomever comes to play catcher and shortstop) if they are going maintain or improve offensively next year.


Table 2: Runs Created Per Game for Tigers in 2008

Player	PA	RC/G	Lge Rank
Hessman	31	11.6	***
Ryan	50	7.5	***
Santiago	156	7.3	***
Granderson	629	6.5	17
Cabrera	684	6.3	21
Ordonez	623	6.0	32
Guillen	489	5.9	37
Thomas	133	5.7	***
Joyce	277	5.6	***
Hollimon	25	5.5	***
Polanco	629	5.4	46
Rodriguez	328	4.9	63
Thames	342	4.7	76
Sheffield	482	4.0	109
Renteria	547	4.0	114
Raburn	199	3.7	***
Inge	407	3.7	121
Larish	111	3.7	***
Clevlen	28	2.5	***
Jones	90	1.5	***
Sardinha	49	1.1	***