Friday, March 02, 2007

How Much is Carlos Guillen Worth?

Two of Dave Dombrowski's best moves as Tigers general manager have involved Carlos Guillen. First, he acquired Guillen from the Mariners for Ramon Santiago and minor leaguer Juan Gonzalez prior to the 2004 season. Santiago was released by the Mariners after fewer than 50 at bats over two years and was then signed by the Tigers before last season. Gonzalez has never appeared in the majors, is no longer in the Mariners system and appears destined to be a minor league journeyman.

The second big move was signing Guillen to a three year $14 million extension during the 2004 season. It seemed like a good move at the time and it proved to be a fantastic move as Guillen has been the most valuable Tiger over the course of his three years with the team. In light of other contracts, such as 4 years/$40 million for Edgar Renteria and 4 years/$32 million for Orlando Cabrera, the deal was a steal for the Tigers.

Now, Guillen's contract is running out and he'll be a free agent after the season unless the Tigers lock him up before then. He wants to remain a Tiger and Dombrowski certainly wants to keep him but it won't be so easy this time. Not much has been said by either side and no contract has been offered but there was an important development this week which definitely should impact the situation. The Rangers have signed Michael Young to a 5 year $80 million contract extension which will take him through 2013.

What does the Young signing mean to Guillen and the Tigers? Well, they are pretty comparable players. Both are shortstops. Young is 30. Guillen is 31. They are two of the best hitters in the game at their position. Guillen has batted .320/.385/.508 in 376 games over three years. Young has batted .319/.365/.485 although in a better hittinmg environment. Guillen's 7.11 runs created per game leads all Major League shortstops over that period by a good margin. Derek Jeter is second at 6.77 and Young is 3rd at 6.40.

So, it definitely appears as if Guillen is worth as much per year as Young and he'll likely get it from the Tigers or somebody else. The bigger question is probably going to be how many years. Guillen is only a year older than Young and the Ranger shortstop will be 36 at the end of his contract. Thus, a similar five year extension for Guillen seems reasonable on the surface. It's not that simple though.

The big difference between the two shortstops is durability. While Young has averaged 159 games per year over his career, Guillen has averaged only 124 games per year over the past five years. Even last year, when Guillen played 150+ games for the first time, his health was in question. He knee swelled up on a couple of occasions and I believe it affected his fielding. He never seemed comfortable setting himself to make throws and I think that may be one of reasons he led all shortstops with 28 errors last year.

Because of the health concerns, the Tigers can not be sure whether he will last another four plus years as a shortstop. He already may have begun a decline last year finishing 21st in the league out of 30 qualifying shortstops in Average Fielding Rank (Young finished 11th). A switch to another position would make Guillen a little less valuable than he is as a shortstop simply because there are so few shortstops who are top hitters. Not only that but, given his injury history, it's even questionable how long he'll hold up as a hitter.

At the same time, they really need his bat in the line-up. He is really their only impact left-handed bat (actually a switch hitter) and he would be really difficult to replace. In fact, if they lose him, it would probably take two players to cover the loss. One would be a new shortstop and since most shorstops don't hit anywhere near as well as Guillen, they would likely need to upgrade offensively at another position.

How many years will Dombrowski go? Only he knows that but when you consider that he already has Sheffield locked up through the age of 40 and Ordonez through the age of 37 (assuming his two option years kick in), you would have to think he'll be cautious about signing the injury prone Guillen through age 35 or 36. My feeling is that he'd probably grab him without hesitation if he could get him for three years. Four years would be a big risk but given Guillen's importance to the team, I think he'd consider that. It would be difficult seeing him go five or more years.

Dombrowski stole Guillen once. He stole him twice. He won't steal him a third time though. I have a feeling this is going to be a drawn out negotiation which will not be resolved before the season starts.


  1. I think they're going to end up losing him. Hopefully they're resourceful enough to come up with a solution.

  2. I also have a feeling they will lose him. Then they would probably sign or trade for a defensive shortstop and a first baseman who can hit. I have no idea who that would be though.

  3. I agree. I really don't see how Detroit is going to end up keeping him unless he chooses to stay a Tiger and signs for a fewer years, or if Detroit gets some good clauses into the contract for protection. They have been pretty good at that, so you never know.

  4. I think they'd be more inclined to keep him if he was a bit younger, thus having more upside. Of course, his injury-riddled past is cause for concern, but I have a feeling that is behind him.

  5. Charles ListonMarch 03, 2007

    I'd be inclined to give him the 4 years. It looks like they're going to get away with having taken the injury risk on Rodriguez' 4-year deal, something that I never would have imagined might be possible at the outset. And although they're not getting the kind of performance they'd like from Ordonez, he hasn't been hurt yet either. So Dombrowski might think that sooner or later he's going to get nailed on one of these deals, but he'll keep doing them until one actually goes sour.

    One thing I'm dead set against is the idea that Guillen could switch to first base. He doesn't hit anywhere near well enough for that.

  6. Guillen said during the winter that he has no interest in switching to first base so it's not likely to happen. He said he was open to moving to second base or third base. The former might be a possibility after Polanco's contract runs out in 2009.


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