Today, I'll give you few interesting items from around the net.
On Monday, I looked at some 2006 PECOTA expectations for Tiger hitters involved in spring training position battles. Yesterday, in his Detroit Tiger Weblog, Billfer took a look at the pitchers and he noted that the projections for young Tiger pitchers are pretty favorable.
I received another bit of positive news on the Tigers in an e-mail correspondence with Will Carroll of Baseball Prospectus yesterday. Many of us have been fretting all winter about the number of players with high injury risks on the Tigers. Based on his methodology of injury projection, Carroll thinks that our fears are exaggerated. In fact, he considers them to be one of the least risky teams in the league in terms of having players with high injury probabilities. Injury projection is certainly an inexact science but Carroll has done a lot of great work in this area and his information was a pleasant surprise.
Diamond Mind Simulations
SG of the Replacement Level Yankees Weblog did some simulations of the 2006 season using the Diamond Mind Simulation and ZIPS projections. After repeating the season 100 times, the Tigers won an average of 82 games and won the division 19% of the time. The average win totals of the rest of the division were:
Kansas City 65
Obviously, these simulation based projections need to be taken with a grain of salt but I thought it was interesting that Chicago and Cleveland are not projected to do as well as last year. My personal feeling is that both teams will fall back a bit this year but not quite as far as this simulation suggests.