Tiger Tales: A Detroit Tigers Blog: PECOTA Projections for 2006

Monday, February 06, 2006

PECOTA Projections for 2006

Baseball Prospectus has released their PECOTA Projections for 2006 but they are only available for customers who either buy the annual book or who have a subscription to their web site. Thus, I can't give you too much detail but I'll give you a quick look at what PECOTA says about the two positional "battles" talked about most often this winter.

Here is what PECOTA says about the first baseman/designated hitter log jam:

Player	PA	BA	OBP	SLG
Chris Shelton	554	.280	.361	.493
Carlos Pena	514	.255	.349	.482
Dmitri Young	539	.277	.333	.468

As you might expect, Shelton is projected to have the best season of the three. That would not be a bad season for Shelton but I think he can hit for a higher average (and thus a higher OBP).Those would be good numbers for Pena. I don't know if he will stay consistent enough to do that as a regular but I think he could put up those numbers as a platoon player.

Player	PA	BA	OBP	SLG
Curtis Granderson	534	.271	.341	.470
Nook Logan	379	.260	.307	.350

PECOTA does not think there should be a battle for the center field position and I certainly agree. I think those are reasonable numbers for Granderson and I'd be happy if he posted them as a regular center fielder this season.

5 comments:

SamFeb 7, 2006 08:53 AM
Hm. I hope their idea of Dmitri's slugging stats is pessimistic. I'm really hoping for more power than that out of him, and maybe even more doubles or triples with the (allegedly) shed weight.

Their take on Granderson vs. Nook looks about right, though, at least comparatively.
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AnonymousFeb 7, 2006 10:20 AM
I have to say that I'd be thrilled with those numbers for Granderson. He'd be a real asset, and home-grown assets have been a rarity for the Tigers lately.

I agree with Sam that Dmitri's numbers seem pessimistic. Everyone grows older, and that's what their model is based on, but I think it's likely he'll actually play younger if he's in better shape. I think that's likely, especially since he's in the last year of his contract (and we've all seen what kind of motivation that is for him). Hopefully he'll start out hot and be dealt at the deadline.

If Carlos Pena hits .255, he's a pretty valuable player given his defense. Given the number of plate appearances they give him, that projection includes a lot of at bats against lefties, I'm guessing. That makes me optimistic that he can reach those numbers as a platoon guy. I'm glad we're giving him another chance.
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Lee PanasFeb 7, 2006 11:14 AM
I think Young's projection is reasonable. People remember his 2003 season and think of that as the real Dmitri Young but that year was an aberration. He's never really been a power hitter but he used to hit for better average. What I'd really like to see from Young is for him to be fit enough to play outfield at least occasionally. That would give the team a lot more flexibility off the bench.
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billferFeb 7, 2006 07:17 PM
I'll just say this

Chris Shelton's top comp is Joe Charboneau.
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Lee PanasFeb 7, 2006 07:31 PM
A long as Shelton doesn't start removing bottle caps with his eye sockets, he'll be ok.
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