Saturday, February 28, 2009

Composite Projections for Tigers Batters in 2009

Everybody is doing projections at this time of year. PECOTA is the most popular system and the best one for forecasting batting stats but it's premium content that requires a subscription. Thus I am going to present the composite projections from three other systems: CHONE, Marcels and ZIPS. Taking the average of these systems has shown in the past to be as accurate as PECOTA.

Table 1 lists the projections for Tigers regulars. Most of the starters are projected to do about the same as last year. Two exceptions are Miguel Cabrera who is expected increase his OPS from .886 in 2008 to .937 in 2009. Most of that improvement would come from his OBP - .349 last year and a .385 projection. The other player for whom the systems see significant improvement is Brandon Inge. Inge hit .205/.303/.369 last year but a .235/.312/.398 is forecasted for this year. Nobody is expected to hit worse than last year.

Table 1: Composite projections for Tigers regulars

Player

BA

OBP

SLG

Curtis Granderson

0.279

0.353

0.486

Placido Polanco

0.306

0.352

0.410

Magglio Ordonez

0.308

0.372

0.487

Miguel Cabrera

0.311

0.385

0.552

Carlos Guillen

0.289

0.365

0.456

Gary Sheffield

0.239

0.338

0.406

Gerald Laird

0.257

0.311

0.396

Brandon Inge

0.235

0.312

0.398

Adam Everett

0.236

0.288

0.336


The reserves and potential reserves are listed in Table 2. Not surprisingly, Ramon Santiago is not expected to hit as well as he did in 2008 when he batted .282/.411/.460. His projection for this year is .257/.327/.372. Among players battling for the 25th spot on the roster, Ryan Raburn has the most favorable line( .262/.329/.439) but Larish is not far behind (.252/.327/.421). Of course, the two other prime candidates - Clete Thomas and Brent Clevlen - provide better defense.

Table 2: Composite projections for Tigers bench


Player

BA

OBP

SLG

Marcus Thames

0.248

0.310

0.503

Ramon Santiago#

0.257

0.327

0.372

Matt Treanor

0.241

0.319

0.337

Ryan Raburn

0.262

0.329

0.439

Jeffrey Larish*

0.252

0.327

0.421

Brent Clevlen

0.243

0.314

0.400

Clete Thomas*

0.255

0.324

0.379

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