RC= (A*B)/C
where A= number of runners on base, B=advancement of runners and C=opportunities to do A and B.
One of the first runs created formulas was developed by Bill James in 1979. It was simply:
RC= ((hits+walks)*total bases)/(ab+walks).
That version is still useful for some purposes but the formula has evolved over the years and more recent versions are more accurate in estimating runs scored. Sabermetrician DanFox gave a brief history of runs created on his blog. The RC figures presented here were abstracted from Lee Sinnis' Complete Baseball Encyclopedia. I believe the formula he uses is:
RC = (((2.4*C+A)*(3*C+B))/(9*C))-(.9*C)
where
A = H+BB+HBP-CS-GIDP
B = TB+.24*(BB-IBB+HBP)+.62*SB+.5*(SH+SF)-.03*SO
C = AB+BB+HBP+SH+SF
Table 1: Runs Created for Tigers batters (through July 1, 2008)
Rank | Player | PA | RC |
18 | Ordonez | 335 | 52 |
21 | Guillen | 328 | 49 |
21 | Cabrera | 344 | 49 |
43 | Polanco | 317 | 43 |
39 | Granderson | 253 | 39 |
69 | Thames | 166 | 33 |
75 | Rodriguez | 264 | 31 |
77 | Renteria | 307 | 30 |
120 | Sheffield | 196 | 20 |
120 | Inge | 171 | 20 |
139 | Thomas | 99 | 16 |
153 | Santiago | 47 | 11 |
162 | Raburn | 88 | 9 |
166 | Joyce | 64 | 8 |
As you can see, only three Tigers - Magglio Ordonez (18th), Carlos Guillen (21st) and Miguel Cabrera (also 21st) rank among the top 40 in the league. They are still ranked third in the league in runs scored though because their regular line-up does not have a lot of black holes and they are getting good contributions from role players.
RC favors players who play in a lot of games. This is not a bad thing but sometimes we want to know the rate in which a player creates runs in games that he does play. For this, we have Runs Created per 27 outs (RC27). For example, Magglio Ordonez has 6.30 runs created per 27 outs. Theoretically, this means that a team of 9 Magglio Ordonez's would score 6.30 runs per game. Table 2 lists the runs created per 27 outs for the Tigers and how they rank among 117 American League regulars with 200 or more plate appearances.
Table 2: Runs Created per game for Tigers batters (through July 1, 2008)
Rank | Player | PA | RC27 |
--- | Santiago | 47 | 11.42 |
--- | Thames | 166 | 8.03 |
--- | Thomas | 99 | 6.97 |
24 | Ordonez | 335 | 6.30 |
26 | Granderson | 253 | 6.16 |
27 | Guillen | 328 | 6.15 |
32 | Cabrera | 344 | 5.73 |
36 | Polanco | 317 | 5.56 |
--- | Joyce | 64 | 4.60 |
71 | Rodriguez | 264 | 4.48 |
--- | Inge | 171 | 4.46 |
--- | Sheffield | 196 | 3.86 |
--- | Raburn | 88 | 3.74 |
98 | Renteria | 307 | 3.67 |
You can see that the list is headed by players with fewer than 200 plate appearances. Ramon Santiago has created 11.42 runs per 27 outs this season. That is the highest total in the league for any player with at least 20 plate appearances! Santiago only has 47 plate appearances but he has done very well in his limited opportunities.
In 166 plate appearances, Marcus Thames has a very impressive 8.03 runs created per game. That ranks him sixth in the league among players with at least 150 plate appearances. That seems like a good reason to keep on giving him regular at bats until he cools off.
Among the regulars, the Tigers have no players in the top 20 but five players between 24th and 36th. If they can keep everyone healthy, they should create and score more runs in the second half. I would expect Cabrera, and possibly Granderson and Ordonez to get into the top twenty before the season is over. I also expect some improvement from Gary Sheffield and Edgar Renteria. Some of their role players like Thames and Thomas should cool off but I think we'll see move players improving or staying the same than regressing in the second half.
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