Thursday, January 17, 2008

Ranking the center fielders

This is the thirteenth part of my series on fielding in 2007. The table of contents for the entire series is listed below:

Basic fielding stats
Converting Zone Rating to something useful
Revised Zone Rating
Probabilistic Model of Range
Fielding Bible
Ultimate Zone Rating
Fan Fielding Survey versus range measures
Outfield arms
Ranking the second basemen
Ranking the shortstops
Ranking the third basemen
Ranking the first baseman
Ranking the center fielders
Ranking the right fielders
Ranking the left fielders
What about catchers?

Today, I am going to rank the center fielders. The first 10 columns of the table below are the same ones as displayed on the infielder tables but there are two additional columns after the ARS column. The 11th column (Arm) lists the runs saved per 200 opportunities as defined in John Walsh's article on outfielder arms. The final column (Total) is the sum of columns 10 and 11 or runs saved per 150 games by range and arm (per 200 opps) combined. Note that we didn't need a throwing arm analysis for infielders because infielder throws are part of the typical ground outs which define the range analysis for infielders.

I only included center fielders with 700 or more innings (rather than the 600 innings cutoff for infielders) because there appeared to be some strange results for some players in the 600s which made me think that a larger sample size was needed for outfielders. I'll also add that, although John is very bright and very thorough, keep in mind arm analysis is newer than range analysis. There is not much to compare it to at this point although Walsh does note that it correlates fairly well with the fan fielding survey which is a good sign.

Here are the highlights:

Best Range - Curtis Granderson (20.0)
Best arm - Willie Taveras (6.1)
Best overall - Granderson (21.1), Coco Crisp (15.4)

Worst Range - Dave Roberts (-14.6)
Worst Arm - Juan Pierre (-7.5)
Worst overall - Billy Hall (-12.8), Gary Matthews Jr. (-12.2)


Table 1: Runs Saved Above Average (per 150 games) for center fielders in 2007

player

team

inn

ZR

RZR

PMR

+/-

UZR

FFS

ARS

Arm

Total

Granderson

Det

1,285

10

34

19

18

18

9

20.0

1.1

21.1

Crisp

Bos

1,216

12

5

28

20

13

7

15.6

-0.2

15.4

Suzuki

Sea

1,339

-4

34

25

3

-14

22

8.8

5.2

14.0

Jones

Atl

1,346

-6

31

9

11

N/A

8

11.2

2.6

13.8

Beltran

NYM

1,240

10

16

7

23

8

17

12.9

-0.2

12.7

Rowand

Phi

1,374

4

-0

-2

N/A

14

-4

3.7

3.6

7.3

Logan

Was

755

-1

17

4

31

N/A

-10

12.8

-7.4

5.4

Taveras

Col

714

-20

6

11

N/A

N/A

-5

-1.0

6.1

5.1

Cameron

SD

1,329

-1

-0

4

N/A

7

8

2.4

0.1

2.5

Pence

Hou

845

-5

8

-3

N/A

N/A

-4

0.1

1.5

1.6

Sizemore

Cle

1,409

13

-17

-7

N/A

26

6

3.8

-2.7

1.1

Edmonds

StL

828

-8

5

-2

-14

N/A

5

-4.9

5.6

0.7

DeJesus

KC

1,351

4

-6

-1

N/A

13

-10

2.5

-3.0

-0.5

Pierre

LA

1,417

0

11

8

4

N/A

-23

5.8

-7.5

-1.7

Patterson

Bal

1,057

2

-2

-19

N/A

N/A

4

-6.1

3.8

-2.3

Young

Ari

1,263

-3

9

-9

N/A

-11

8

-3.6

0.2

-3.4

Owens

CWS

709

6

-2

-8

17

N/A

-7

3.5

-6.9

-3.4

Cabrera

NYY

1,073

9

-15

-5

-23

N/A

-4

-8.4

4.5

-3.9

Hunter

Min

1,315

5

-11

-0

N/A

N/A

9

-1.9

-3.6

-5.5

Wells

Tor

1,279

12

-20

-5

N/A

N/A

9

-4.5

-2.3

-6.8

Roberts

SF

757

-11

-9

2

-28

-26

-12

-14.6

3.7

-10.9

Matthews Jr

LAA

1,145

-10

-7

5

-25

-8

1

-9.1

-3.1

-12.2

Hall

Mil

1,022

-15

-4

-22

N/A

-16

-19

-14.1

1.3

-12.8

6 comments:

  1. It's nice to see there seems to be a consensus that Granderson is one of the premier center fielders in the league.

    What's even better is judging from his scouting reports when he was in the minors, it's required a lot of hard work on his part to develop those skills.

    ReplyDelete
  2. Why does it make me grin to see Torii Hunter so low? Same with Gary Matthews Jr., who has parlayed one great catch into the perception of defensive greatness.

    ReplyDelete
  3. Granderson is such an asset to the team. Speed, defense, power, average. Plus, he adds minimally to the teams salary.

    He was a 3rd round pick! Who ever recommended drafting him deserves a raise.

    Can't wait to see your other two outfield analysis Lee. Thanks.

    ReplyDelete
  4. What was j. Jones numbers?

    ReplyDelete
  5. I added Jones' numbers to the outfield arms article:

    http://detroittigertales.blogspot.com/2008/01/outfield-arms-2007.html

    He finished first in range runs saved and arm runs saved but I decided 600 innings was not enough for outfielders. The arm number was ridiculously high.

    ReplyDelete

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