What if we also consider hits? Component ERA (CERA), a Bill James statistic, estimates what a pitcher's ERA should be based on the FIP stats and also hits. The table shows that his CERA is also consistently lower than his actual ERA.
Table 1: Bonderman’s ERA versus FIP and CERA
| Year | IP | ERA | FIP | FIP-ERA | CERA | CERA-ERA |
| 2003 | 162 | 5.56 | 6.20 | -0.64 | 5.39 | -0.17 |
| 2004 | 184 | 4.89 | 4.29 | -0.60 | 3.93 | -0.96 |
| 2005 | 189 | 4.57 | 3.92 | -0.51 | 4.20 | -0.37 |
| 2006 | 214 | 4.08 | 3.31 | -0.77 | 3.58 | -0.50 |
| 2007 | 174.1 | 5.01 | 4.22 | -0.79 | 4.44 | -0.57 |
There have been various possible reasons given for Bonderman's high ERAs - below average defense, doesn't pitch well with men on base, etc. - but one of the most popular theories is that he bunches all his hits, walks and homers together into big innings. Some say he loses his cool and has a "melt down" when things are not going well and gets killed by one bad inning. The other related theory is that he can't get untracked and frequently gives up multiple runs in the first inning.
I examined the retrosheet play by play databases to see whether he really does have a propensity for big innings exceeding that of other pitchers. Table 2 compares Bonderman to the MLB average for pitchers with 150 innings in a year (roughly 100 pitchers each year). Here is how to read the table:
% 0 runs = Percent of innings with zero runs allowed
% 1 run = Percent of innings with one run allowed
% 2 runs = Percent of innings with 2 or more runs allowed (the big innings)
Total runs = just what it says
big inning % = Percent of total runs scored in big innings
In 2003 and 2007 he gave up significantly more multiple run innings (% inns 2+ runs) than the MLB average, but it is not a consistent pattern across his five years. In 2006, he had fewer multiple run innings than league average and in 2004 and 2005, he was right around league average. Similarly Bonderman's percent of total runs allowed which came in big innings (big inning %) was more than league average in 2003 and 2007 but less than league average in 2005 and 2006. What does happen every year is he has more single run innings (% inns 1 run) than average.
Table 2: Runs scored in big innings: Bonderman versus MLB average
| | % inns 0 runs | % inns 1 run | % inns 2+ runs | Runs | Big |
| 2003 | | | | | |
| Bonderman | 63.0 | 18.5 | 18.5 | 118 | 72.9 |
| MLB Avg | 72.4 | 15.5 | 12.0 | 96 | 64.8 |
| 2004 | | | | | |
| Bonderman | 69.8 | 17.2 | 13.0 | 101 | 67.3 |
| MLB Avg | 71.9 | 15.4 | 12.8 | 96 | 66.4 |
| 2005 | | | | | |
| Bonderman | 69.0 | 18.3 | 12.7 | 101 | 64.1 |
| MLB Avg. | 72.6 | 14.9 | 12.5 | 96 | 68.5 |
| 2006 | | | | | |
| Bonderman | 73.0 | 16.2 | 10.8 | 104 | 65.4 |
| MLB Avg. | 71.1 | 15.8 | 13.0 | 101 | 69.4 |
| 2007 | | | | | |
| Bonderman | 68.7 | 15.9 | 15.4 | 105 | 72.8 |
| MLB Avg. | 72.0 | 15.5 | 12.5 | 95 | 64.5 |
What about the first inning problem? Table 3 displays the number of multiple run innings he allowed by inning each year and compares him to the average pitcher. The first column shows that pitcher's in general have more bad first innings than other innings but also that Bonderman was quite extreme in both 2005 (9 multiple run first innings) and 2007 (13 multiple run innings). In other years, he was right around league average.
Table 3: Multiple run innings: Bonderman versus MLB average
| | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th | 5th | 6th | 7th | 8th | 9th |
| 2003 | | | | | | | | | |
| Bonderman | 5 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| MLB Avg | 4.4 | 3.2 | 3.5 | 3.9 | 3.3 | 3.0 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2004 | | | | | | | | | |
| Bonderman | 5 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| MLB Avg | 4.1 | 3.3 | 3.8 | 3.8 | 3.4 | 3.4 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 2005 | | | | | | | | | |
| Bonderman | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| MLB Avg. | 4.4 | 3.4 | 3.5 | 3.8 | 3.7 | 3.1 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2006 | | | | | | | | | |
| Bonderman | 4 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| MLB Avg. | 4.4 | 3.5 | 3.9 | 3.8 | 3.8 | 3.7 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2007 | | | | | | | | | |
| Bonderman | 13 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| MLB Avg. | 4.3 | 2.8 | 3.8 | 3.5 | 4.0 | 3.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
In conclusion, there is no consistent pattern of Bonderman allowing more big innings than league average. The only real trend I see is that he gives up more one run innings than league average every year. This is not say that he doesn't need to reduce his number of big innings. It just isn't inordinately large and it doesn't explain why his peripherals do not match his ERA.
The information used here was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by
Retrosheet. Interested parties may contact Retrosheet at "www.retrosheet.org".
