The Best Pitchers in Baseball Since 2011

Doug Fister was 15th in MLB in run prevention from 2011-2013
(Photo credit: AP Photo/ Carlos Osorio)

In earlier posts, I ranked the best pitchers in the American and National leagues in 2013 based on the aggregate of a few pitching measures.  There is no surefire way to determine the best pitchers in baseball, but a pitchers job is to prevent runs.  So, it's useful to estimate how many runs pitchers saved their teams compared to an average pitcher.  I calculated runs saved four different ways:

• Pitching Runs -  Runs Saved Above Average based on innings and runs allowed. 

• Adjusted Pitching Runs - Pitching Runs minus estimated Runs allowed by fielders. 

• Base Runs -  Runs Saved Above Average based on batters faced and hits, walks, total bases and home runs allowed.

• FIP Runs - Runs Saved Above Average based on innings, bases on balls, hit batsmen and home runs allowed and strikeouts.

I then took the average of the four measures to come up with an aggregate metric.  The AL and NL leaders in 2013 were Max Scherzer of the Tigers (33) and Clayton Kershaw of the Dodgers (44).  Pitcher performance varies a lot from one year to the next though, so it's good to look at more than one season of data in determining baseball's best pitchers.  Table 1 lists the MLB run prevention leaders from 2011-2013.

Kershaw was the run away leader with 122 runs saved over the three-year period.  The Tigers' Justin Verlander was first among AL pitchers with 89 runs saved.  Kershaw led Verlander in Pitching Runs (142 to 78), Base Runs (143 to 79) and FIP Runs (89 to 82), but trailed Verlander slightly in Adjusted Pitching Runs (116 to 114).  Other current Tigers among the leaders were Anibal Sanchez (21st) and Max Scherzer (25th).

Remember Doug Fister? He finished 15th with 46 runs prevented by this metric.  We probably should just accept his trade  to the Nationals at this point and see how things work out,  but he's been really good the last few years, better than a lot of people realize.
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Table 1: Major League Baseball Run Prevention Leaders, 2011-2013

Pitcher	IP	Pitching Runs	Adjusted Pitching Runs	Base Runs	FIP Runs	Average
Clayton Kershaw*	696	142	114	143	89	122
Justin Verlander	707	78	116	79	82	89
Cliff Lee*	665	96	100	78	77	88
Jered Weaver	578	79	90	66	31	67
Cole Hamels*	651	69	74	67	50	65
Felix Hernandez	669	51	61	64	76	63
Chris Sale*	477	53	78	48	53	58
David Price*	621	52	50	62	54	54
Johnny Cueto	433	67	56	62	26	53
Madison Bumgarner*	613	57	37	71	44	52
Matt Cain	624	60	39	77	24	50
Gio Gonzalez*	596	50	54	54	39	49
Jordan Zimmermann	569	60	50	50	31	48
James Shields	705	57	46	53	34	48
Doug Fister	586	30	59	41	55	46
Matt Harvey	237	45	41	45	36	42
Zack Greinke	561	45	32	41	45	41
Hiroki Kuroda	622	51	62	26	20	40
Stephen Strasburg	366	36	32	55	38	40
Yu Darvish	400	30	47	36	44	39
Anibal Sanchez	377	30	41	30	43	36
Kyle Lohse	597	54	38	46	1	35
R.A. Dickey	666	49	43	49	-2	35
Mat Latos	613	42	19	48	28	34
Max Scherzer	596	19	50	18	49	34
Adam Wainwright	439	29	21	41	46	34
Roy Halladay	451	28	27	46	33	34

Data source: Baseball-Reference.com