Another Stat to Make Scherzer and Sanchez Look Good

In earlier posts, I introduced statistics estimating the numbers of runs saved by pitchers from three different angles:

• Pitching Runs -  Runs Saved Above Average based on innings and runs allowed.

• Adjusted Pitching Runs - Pitching Runs minus estimated Runs allowed by fielders.

• Base Runs -  Runs Saved Above Average based on batters faced and hits, walks, total bases and home runs allowed.

In this post, I'm adding a fourth perspective based on the increasingly popular Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) statistic.  I'm going to calculate FIP Runs which is similar to Pitching Runs except it uses FIP instead of ERA (or RA).  The FIP Runs metric is also like Fan Graphs WAR except it is in runs instead of  wins and uses average instead of replacement as the baseline.  

Using Tigers right hander Max Scherzer as an example, FIP Runs is calculated as follows:

• Scherzer has a FIP ERA of 2.68 in 201 1/3 innings.  I want to use the runs scale instead of earned runs, so I divide by .92 (about 92% of runs are earned):  2.68/.92 = 2.91 FIP RA .

• The Park Factor for Comerica is 1.02 (pitching in Detroit inflates runs allowed by an average 2% for a pitcher pitching half his games there).  So, 2.91/1.02 = 2.85.

• Convert FIP RA to Runs allowed = (2.85/9) x 201.33 IP = 63.8.

• The average pitcher has a FIP ERA of 4.01 which translates to a FIP RA of 4.36.

• Convert FIP RA to runs allowed in 201 1/3 IP for the average pitcher = (4.36/9) x 201.33 = 97.5

• Calculate FIP Runs as the difference between steps 3 and 5 above: 97.5 - 63.8 = 33.7.  So, based on his innings, walks, hit batsmen, strikeouts and home runs, Scherzer has saved an estimated 33.7 runs compared to the average pitcher.

Table 1 below shows that Scherzer leads the American League in FIP Runs by a small margin over Felix Hernandez of the Mariners (33.3). The Tigers do amazingly well on this metric with four pitchers in the top ten including Anibal Sanchez (31.7), Doug Fister (18.1) and Justin Verlander (16.0).

So, according to this statistic, not only do the Tigers have two strong Cy Young candidates in Scherzer and Sanchez, but they have one of the best rotations in baseball in recent history.  I will be updating FIP Runs and the other three statistics mentioned above between the end of the season and the AL Cy Young Award voting.

Table 1: American League FIP Runs Leaders

Pitcher	Team	IP	FIP	FIP Runs
Max Scherzer	Tigers	201.1	2.68	33.7
Felix Hernandez	Mariners	194.1	2.59	33.3
Anibal Sanchez	Tigers	165.2	2.47	31.7
Yu Darvish	Rangers	193.2	3.18	23.6
Chris Sale	White Sox	201.1	3.24	21.7
Doug Fister	Tigers	193.2	3.30	18.1
Justin Verlander	Tigers	199.1	3.41	16.0
Derek Holland	Rangers	193.1	3.53	15.9
David Price	Rays	165.2	3.10	14.9
Bartolo Colon	Athletics	178.1	3.24	14.4
Hiroki Kuroda	Yankees	189.2	3.49	14.2
Jon Lester	Red Sox	201.1	3.61	13.9
James Shields	Royals	207.2	3.54	13.5
Justin Masterson	Indians	189.1	3.40	10.7
Hisashi Iwakuma	Mariners	203.2	3.58	10.6

Data Source: FanGraphs.com