A historical comparison of pitching rotations is even trickier because of the changing use of pitchers over time. Starting pitchers used to pitch a lot more innings in the early 1900's compared to today where they share a great deal of the workload with relievers. Determining the quality of a team's starting rotation is an art as well as a science, but when looking at every team between 1901-2011, it's useful to have a formula. So, I'm going to use the Baseball-Reference Wins Above Replacement (rWAR) system. This won't give us a definitive leader board, but it is as good a system as any.
The rWAR statistic was developed by Sean Smith, now a statistician for a major league team. It is an estimate of the number of wins a pitcher is worth over a replacement level pitcher (e.g Brad Penny in 2011). For example, Tigers ace Justin Verlander had 8.6 WAR last year, so he was worth an estimated nine wins more than a pitcher such as Penny. The rWAR metric is based on a pitcher's innings, ERA and league average ERA. It also adjusts for the estimated runs saved by the defense behind a pitcher as well as the pitcher's home park. A very accessible explanation of the measure can be found at Beyond The Boxscore.
Most of my analysis uses a database purchased from Mr. Smith a couple of years ago. The data are now housed at Baseball-Reference. There may be a few small discrepancies between the old database numbers I'm using and Baseball-Reference due to recent upgrades of the system, but nothing that should significantly change the conclusions. By the way, the r in rWAR stands for "Rally" which was Sean's screen name.
Now that we've established that rWAR is the statistic of choice, the next step is to develop a set of criteria qualifying a staff as one of the best. Because five-man rotations have not always been used, four-man rotations will be selected. I wanted each of the four pitchers in a rotation to have some level of both quantity and quality so the following criteria were chosen for each pitcher: at least 20 starts, 162 innings pitched and two rWAR.
The top quartets of all time according to rWAR and the stated qualifications are listed in Table 1 below. The best rotation was the 1912 Boston Red Sox with 24.1 rWAR. That foursome was headed by right-hander Smoky Joe Wood (9.6 rWAR) who posted a 1.91 ERA in 344 innings. Other top starters on that team were Buck O'Brien (5.3 rWAR), Ray Collins (5.1) and Hugh Bedient (4.1).
Table 1: Best Starting Rotations by Baseball-Reference WAR, 1901-2011
Team
|
Pitcher 1
|
WAR
|
Pitcher 2
|
WAR
|
Pitcher 3
|
WAR
|
Pitcher 4
|
WAR
|
Total
|
|
1912
|
BOS
|
Smoky
Joe Wood
|
9.6
|
Buck
O'Brien
|
5.3
|
Ray
Collins
|
5.1
|
Hugh
Bedient
|
4.1
|
24.1
|
1946
|
DET
|
Hal
Newhouser
|
9.0
|
Dizzy
Trout
|
7.2
|
Virgil
Trucks
|
3.9
|
Fred
Hutchinson
|
3.8
|
23.9
|
1969
|
CHN
|
Bill
Hands
|
8.8
|
Fergie
Jenkins
|
7.6
|
Ken
Holtzman
|
4.7
|
Dick
Selma
|
2.7
|
23.8
|
1909
|
CHN
|
Mordecai
Brown
|
8.7
|
Orval
Overall
|
7.1
|
Ed
Reulbach
|
5.5
|
Jack
Pfiester
|
2.3
|
23.6
|
1956
|
CLE
|
Early
Wynn
|
8.2
|
Herb
Score
|
7.6
|
Bob
Lemon
|
5.4
|
Mike
Garcia
|
2.4
|
23.6
|
1967
|
PHI
|
Jim
Bunning
|
8.4
|
Chris
Short
|
6.6
|
Rick
Wise
|
3.7
|
Larry
Jackson
|
3.6
|
22.3
|
1985
|
NYN
|
Dwight
Gooden
|
11.7
|
Ron
Darling
|
4.4
|
Sid
Fernandez
|
3.7
|
Ed
Lynch
|
2.4
|
22.2
|
1966
|
LAN
|
Sandy
Koufax
|
10.8
|
Don
Sutton
|
4.3
|
Claude
Osteen
|
3.7
|
Don
Drysdale
|
3.2
|
22.0
|
1949
|
DET
|
Virgil
Trucks
|
7.2
|
Hal
Newhouser
|
5.9
|
Fred
Hutchinson
|
4.4
|
Ted
Gray
|
3.5
|
21.0
|
1991
|
ATL
|
Tom
Glavine
|
7.4
|
John
Smoltz
|
4.7
|
Steve
Avery
|
4.5
|
Charlie
Leibrandt
|
4.3
|
20.9
|
1913
|
NY1
|
Christy
Mathewson
|
6.8
|
Rube
Marquard
|
5.1
|
Jeff
Tesreau
|
5.0
|
Al
Demaree
|
4.0
|
20.9
|
1968
|
SLN
|
Bob
Gibson
|
11.9
|
Ray
Washburn
|
4.0
|
Nelson
Briles
|
2.5
|
Steve
Carlton
|
2.5
|
20.9
|
1997
|
ATL
|
Greg
Maddux
|
7.3
|
Tom
Glavine
|
5.0
|
John
Smoltz
|
4.5
|
Denny
Neagle
|
4.1
|
20.9
|
1901
|
BSN
|
Vic
Willis
|
7.2
|
Bill
Dinneen
|
5.1
|
Kid
Nichols
|
4.9
|
Togie
Pittinger
|
3.6
|
20.8
|
1987
|
KCA
|
Bret
Saberhagen
|
7.0
|
Charlie
Leibrandt
|
5.5
|
Mark
Gubicza
|
4.6
|
Danny
Jackson
|
3.6
|
20.7
|
The second best staff was the 1946 Detroit Tigers with 23.9 rWAR. They were led by Hall-of-Fame southpaw Hal Newhouser (9.0 rWAR). Prince Hal had a league-leading 1.94 ERA in 293 innings and earned his second consecutive MVP that year. Other major contributors were Dizzy Trout (7.2), Virgil Trucks (3.9) and Fred Hutchinson (3.8). The same cast except for Ted Gray replacing Trout finished ninth with with 21.0 rWAR in 1949.
In a later post, I'll concentrate just on the Tigers listing their best rotations of all time.
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