Pitching Runs in 2008

ERA is one of the best performance measures among traditional baseball statistics but it does have limitations. Like batting average and slugging percentage, ERA is unaffected by sample size and thus does not take durability into consideration. For example, Erik Bedard’s 3.67 ERA last year was better than A.J. Burnett’s 4.07 ERA. However, Bedard started just 15 games and Burnett had a full sesson of 34 starts. Which pitcher contributed more to his team? A fairly simple statistic called Pitching Runs developed by Pete Palmer and John Thorn in the 1980s answers this question better than ERA.

The formula for Pitching Runs is: IP x (Lge ERA/9) – ER. The middle term (league ERA divided by 9) is the average runs allowed per inning for all teams in the league. Multiplying that by the pitcher’s innings pitched gives us the number of runs the pitcher would have allowed in that many innings if he was an average pitcher. Finally, we take the difference between that number and the pitcher’s earned runs to determine his pitching runs or runs saved above average. Pitching Runs is better than ERA as it accounts for pitcher’s workload as well as his effectiveness. No, it’s not as sophisticated as VORP or Pitching Runs Created or something like that but it’s effective and its’ simplicity has value.

The pitching runs (PR) for Tigers starters in 2008 are listed in Table 1 below. Not surprisingly, Armando Galarraga lead the team with 12.4 pitching runs. An average pitcher would have zero pitching runs. So, the Big Cat saved 12.4 runs over the course of the season compared to an average American League pitcher. The three other most frequently used starters – Justin Verlander (-10.9), Kenny Rogers (-26.0) and Nate Robertson (-37.5) were well below average according this statistic. In fact, Robertson was the worst in the league.

Table 1: Pitching Runs for Detroit Tigers Starters in 2008

Name	IP	ER	ERA	PR
Galarraga	178.7	74	3.73	12.4
Miner	118.0	56	4.27	1.0
Bonderman	71.3	34	4.29	0.5
Verlander	201.0	108	4.84	-10.9
Rogers	173.7	110	5.70	-26.0
Robertson	168.7	119	6.35	-37.5

The American League leaders are shown in Table 2 below. You can see that the run-away leaders were Cliff Lee (44.9) and Roy Halliday (42.9). Justin Duchscherer finished third with 28.5 Pitching Runs.

Table 2: American Pitching Runs Leaders - 2008

Name	Team	IP	ER	ERA	PR
Lee	CLE	223.3	63	2.54	44.9
Halladay	TOR	246.0	76	2.78	42.9
Duchscherer	OAK	141.7	40	2.54	28.5
Matsuzaka	BOS	167.7	54	2.90	27.1
Lester	BOS	210.3	75	3.21	26.6
Danks	CHA	195.0	72	3.32	22.2
Mussina	NYA	200.3	75	3.37	21.8
Santana	LAA	219.0	85	3.49	20.8
Saunders	LAA	198.0	75	3.41	20.7
Hernandez	SEA	200.7	77	3.45	20.0
Greinke	KC	202.3	78	3.47	19.8
Chamberlain	NYA	100.3	29	2.60	19.5
Shields	TB	215.0	85	3.56	18.9
Baker	MIN	172.3	66	3.45	17.3
Harden	OAK	77.0	20	2.34	17.2
Marcum	TOR	151.3	57	3.39	16.1
Guthrie	BAL	190.7	77	3.63	15.2
Litsch	TOR	176.0	70	3.58	15.1
Kazmir	TB	152.3	59	3.49	14.6
Buehrle	CHA	218.7	92	3.79	13.7

Table 3 lists the National League leaders. That list is headed by Johan Santana (45.7), Tim Lincecum (42.2) and C.C. Sabathia (38.3). Sabathia had 45.4 Pitching Runs in both leagues combined.

Table 3: National League Pitching Runs Leaders - 2008

Name	Team	IP	ER	ERA	PR
Santana	NYN	234.3	66	2.53	45.7
Lincecum	SF	227.0	66	2.62	42.2
Sabathia	MIL	130.7	24	1.65	38.3
Dempster	CHN	206.7	68	2.96	30.5
Hamels	PHI	227.3	78	3.09	30.3
Peavy	SD	173.7	55	2.85	27.8
Sheets	MIL	198.3	68	3.09	26.5
Billingsley	LAN	200.7	70	3.14	25.7
Webb	ARI	226.7	83	3.30	25.1
Lowe	LAN	211.0	76	3.24	24.6
Volquez	CIN	196.0	70	3.21	23.4
Haren	ARI	216.0	80	3.33	23.0
Harden	CHN	71.0	14	1.77	19.8
Nolasco	FLA	212.3	83	3.52	18.2
Hudson	ATL	142.0	50	3.17	17.7
Oswalt	HOU	208.7	82	3.54	17.5
Wainwright	STL	132.0	47	3.20	15.9
Maholm	PIT	206.3	85	3.71	13.3
Volstad	FLA	84.3	27	2.88	13.2
Cain	SF	217.7	91	3.76	12.8