FIP Analysis for Tiger Relievers in 2007

In an earlier post, I discussed team run prevention using FIP ERA to measure pitching performance and DER to measure fielding performance. Then I evaluated the performance of individual starting pitchers using FIP ERA. Today, I’ll look at the relievers. There were 82 primary relievers (more relief appearances than starts) with 40 or more innings pitched in 2007. Table 1 below lists Detroit Tiger relievers in 2007. Table 2 lists all 82 qualifiers in the league.

In both tables, the key variables are actual ERA, FIP ERA, FIP-Actual and LOB%. All are defined in the article on starters linked above. Since relievers pitch fewer innings than starters, all of these statistics are less reliable for relievers and should be interpreted with a little more caution. The averages for relievers in 2007 were: FIP (4.09), DER (0.71) and LOB% (0.74).

The following relievers had FIP ERAs which were worse than their actual actual ERAs: Bobby Seay (FIP ERA = 2.86, ERA = 2.33), Tim Byrdak (3.60, 3.20), and Zach Miner (3.85, 3.02). This is an indication that they may have not pitched quite as well as their ERAs indicated. On the other hand, Todd Jones (3.77, 4.26) and Jason Grilli (4.04, 4.74) had FIP ERAs lower than their ERAs which suggests that they may have been somewhat unlucky.

One thing that comes out of this analysis is that all six qualifying relievers had FIP ERAs which were league average or better. Since FIP ERA is a better predictor than ERA, this gives us reason for cautious optimism for 2008. However, keep in mind that sample sizes (of innings) for relievers are very small and that it's very hard to project relievers into the future. Also note that most of these pitchers do not have long track records of success. The bullpen is going to be another key factor to the team's success in 2008 and I'm still hoping they add another pitcher with a better track record.

The raw data for this report were abstracted from The Hardball Times database.


Table 1: FIP ERA Ranks for Tiger Relievers in 2007

FIP ERA Rank	Name	IP	ERA	FIP ERA	DER	FIP-Actual	LOB %
12	Seay	46.3	2.33	2.86	.722	0.53	.80
26	Byrdak	45.0	3.20	3.60	.708	0.40	.69
30	Jones	61.3	4.26	3.77	.704	-0.49	.70
32	Miner	53.7	3.02	3.85	.694	0.83	.76
36	Rodney	50.7	4.26	3.95	.707	-0.31	.68
39	Grilli	79.7	4.74	4.00	.694	-0.74	.65

Table 2: FIP ERA Ranks for AL Relievers in 2007

FIP ERA Rank	Name	Team	IP	ERA	FIP ERA	DER	FIP-Actual	LOB %
1	Betancourt	CLE	79.3	1.47	2.25	.760	0.78	.86
2	Soria	KC	69.0	2.48	2.51	.750	0.03	.74
3	Jenks	CHA	65.0	2.77	2.52	.757	-0.25	.69
4	Papelbon	BOS	58.3	1.85	2.59	.785	0.74	.88
5	Street	OAK	50.0	2.88	2.70	.748	-0.18	.68
6	Nathan	MIN	71.7	1.88	2.71	.724	0.83	.86
7	Rivera	NYA	71.3	3.15	2.71	.678	-0.44	.76
8	Bale	KC	40.0	4.05	2.81	.627	-1.24	.73
9	Putz	SEA	71.7	1.38	2.81	.803	1.43	.94
10	Brown	OAK	41.7	4.54	2.85	.675	-1.69	.65
11	Rodriguez	LAA	67.3	2.81	2.85	.701	0.04	.78
12	Seay	DET	46.3	2.33	2.86	.722	0.53	.80
13	Perez	CLE	60.7	1.78	3.05	.766	1.27	.84
14	Tallet	TOR	62.3	3.47	3.16	.730	-0.31	.70
15	Sherrill	SEA	45.7	2.36	3.18	.769	0.82	.84
16	Benoit	TEX	82.0	2.85	3.23	.710	0.38	.78
17	Downs	TOR	58.0	2.17	3.23	.714	1.06	.84
18	Frasor	TOR	57.0	4.58	3.26	.716	-1.32	.63
19	Okajima	BOS	69.0	2.22	3.38	.762	1.16	.86
20	Embree	OAK	68.0	3.97	3.45	.703	-0.52	.71
21	Thornton	CHA	56.3	4.79	3.52	.661	-1.27	.69
22	Accardo	TOR	67.3	2.14	3.53	.750	1.39	.81
23	Bradford	BAL	64.7	3.34	3.57	.679	0.23	.73
24	Green	SEA	68.0	3.84	3.57	.646	-0.27	.75
25	Neshek	MIN	70.3	2.94	3.59	.780	0.65	.76
26	Byrdak	DET	45.0	3.20	3.60	.708	0.40	.69
27	O'Flaherty	SEA	52.3	4.47	3.63	.723	-0.84	.64
28	Greinke	KC	122.0	3.69	3.76	.686	0.07	.76
29	Peralta	KC	87.7	3.80	3.76	.689	-0.04	.74
30	Jones	DET	61.3	4.26	3.77	.704	-0.49	.70
31	Oliver	LAA	64.3	3.78	3.83	.725	0.05	.68
32	Miner	DET	53.7	3.02	3.85	.694	0.83	.76
33	Janssen	TOR	72.7	2.35	3.89	.727	1.54	.81
34	Casilla	OAK	50.7	4.44	3.93	.730	-0.51	.72
35	Delcarmen	BOS	44.0	2.05	3.93	.786	1.88	.87
36	Rodney	DET	50.7	4.26	3.95	.707	-0.31	.68
37	Speier	LAA	50.0	2.88	3.96	.767	1.08	.80
38	Wilson	TEX	68.3	3.03	3.97	.743	0.94	.77
39	Grilli	DET	79.7	4.74	4.00	.694	-0.74	.65
40	Shields	LAA	77.0	3.86	4.00	.724	0.14	.71
41	Guerrier	MIN	88.0	2.35	4.02	.750	1.67	.88
42	Gobble	KC	53.7	3.02	4.03	.671	1.01	.80
43	Walker	BAL	61.3	3.23	4.05	.734	0.82	.75
44	Borowski	CLE	65.7	5.07	4.08	.670	-0.99	.68
45	Morrow	SEA	63.3	4.12	4.09	.686	-0.03	.76
46	Ray	BAL	42.7	4.43	4.11	.727	-0.32	.69
47	Bootcheck	LAA	77.3	4.77	4.12	.690	-0.65	.67
48	Vizcaino	NYA	75.3	4.30	4.12	.729	-0.18	.72
49	Moseley	LAA	92.0	4.40	4.16	.696	-0.24	.70
50	Francisco	TEX	59.3	4.55	4.21	.693	-0.34	.69
51	Lopez	BOS	40.7	3.10	4.22	.726	1.12	.76
52	Mastny	CLE	57.7	4.68	4.23	.665	-0.45	.76
53	Calero	OAK	40.7	5.75	4.36	.664	-1.39	.66
54	Riske	KC	69.7	2.45	4.41	.736	1.96	.90
55	Wolfe	TOR	45.3	2.98	4.44	.772	1.46	.75
56	Parrish	BAL	41.7	5.40	4.51	.691	-0.89	.68
57	Myers	NYA	40.7	2.66	4.63	.737	1.97	.81
58	Timlin	BOS	55.3	3.42	4.66	.767	1.24	.75
59	Duckworth	KC	46.7	4.63	4.73	.706	0.10	.64
60	MacDougal	CHA	42.3	6.80	4.73	.641	-2.07	.59
61	Nunez	KC	43.7	3.92	4.75	.717	0.83	.77
62	Ortiz	MIN	91.0	5.14	4.75	.691	-0.39	.68
63	Logan	CHA	50.7	4.97	4.80	.683	-0.17	.71
64	Marshall	OAK	42.0	6.43	4.88	.689	-1.55	.60
65	Eyre	TEX	68.0	5.16	4.95	.688	-0.21	.69
66	Reyes	TB	60.7	4.90	4.95	.757	0.05	.69
67	Camp	TB	40.0	7.20	4.98	.582	-2.22	.69
68	Villone	NYA	42.3	4.25	5.01	.752	0.76	.74
69	Glover	TB	77.3	4.89	5.05	.691	0.16	.72
70	Farnsworth	NYA	60.0	4.80	5.08	.717	0.28	.71
71	Wright	TEX	77.0	3.62	5.09	.724	1.47	.76
72	Rincon	MIN	59.7	5.13	5.11	.694	-0.02	.70
73	Bell	BAL	53.0	5.94	5.12	.656	-0.82	.69
74	Littleton	TEX	48.0	4.31	5.13	.731	0.82	.75
75	Bruney	NYA	50.0	4.68	5.40	.729	0.72	.73
76	Proctor	NYA	54.3	3.81	5.53	.732	1.72	.79
77	Snyder	BOS	54.3	3.81	5.53	.756	1.72	.74
78	Wood	TEX	50.7	5.33	5.77	.674	0.44	.69
79	Rheinecker	TEX	50.3	5.36	5.78	.675	0.42	.68
80	Fossum	TB	76.0	7.70	5.81	.643	-1.89	.59
81	Stokes	TB	62.3	7.07	5.85	.641	-1.22	.67
82	Baez	BAL	50.3	6.44	6.14	.738	-0.30	.67