In both tables, ERA represents the pitcher’s actual ERA. FIP ERA represents the pitcher’s equivalent ERA based on fielding independent statistics (K,BB,HR,HBP) only. The average ERA and FIP ERA in the American League was 4.50. The DER is the Defensive Efficiency Ratio of the team when the given pitcher was on the mound. A higher DER indicates that he received more fielding support. The league average DER was .70 which means that 70% of balls in play not including homers were turned into outs.
FIP-Actual is the difference between the pitcher’s FIP ERA and actual ERA. It tells how much the actual ERA was helped or hurt by non FIP factors. A negative number indicates that the pitcher probably pitched better than his actual ERA. A positive number says that he probably pitched worse than his actual ERA. LOB% is the percentage of runners put on base which were left stranded. The league average LOB% was .70.
The tables show that Jeremy Bonderman had a FIP-Real of -0.79 indicating that he pitched better than his actual ERA. His DER (.681) was lower than any starting pitcher on the team which means that he may have received less fielding support than his pitching mates.
Since FIP ERA is a better predictor of future performance than actual ERA, Bonderman’s 4.20 FIP might normally bode well for the upcoming year. The bad news is that his FIP ERA has been far better than his actual ERA for 5 straight years indicating that it might be something more than just bad luck. I believe it is caused by a propensity to give up runs in bunches. Last year, most of those bunches seemed to occur in the first inning where he allowed 37% of his runs. This apparent tendency also shows up in his low LOB% (.66).
The most encouraging thing about Bonderman's 2007 season is that he had a 3.44 FIP ERA and 3.48 actual ERA in the first 16 games. At some point in the second half, he got hurt and his ERA ballooned to 7.38 (with a 5.00 FIP ERA) in his final 12 games. The biggest question is how healthy he will be in 2008.
Like last year, Justin Verlander's FIP ERA (4.09) was higher than his actual ERA (3.66). Verlander had strong fielding support (.721) and a high LOB% (.75). LOB% does not always indicate a skill but he has had a high one for two straight years so it will be interesting to see if he keeps it up. In limited action (63 innings), kenny Rogers also had a higher FIP ERA(4.43) than ERA (5.13). The same can be said for three pitchers no longer with the organization: Chad Durbin, Jair Jurrjens, and Mike Maroth. All of these pitchers had ERAs over 5.00 and better than average DERs indicating that they may have somewhat lucky.
Nate Robertson (4.73 FIP ERA, 4.76 ERA) and Dontrelle Willis (5.10, 5.17) had FIP ERAs in line with their real ERAs. This suggests that their real ERA were indicative of how they pitched in 2007. Like Bonderman, Willis may have pitched hurt last year. For more on Willis' 2007 season, check out Bilfers Detroit Tiger Weblog
What can we expect for next year? I'm confident that the still developing Verlander will be one of the top 10 pitchers in the league. Robertson will probably continue to be close to league average or just slightly worse which should be good enough with the Tigers high powered offense. If they are going to get into post-season, I don't think he can't be their #2 pitcher though. I believe the keys to the success of this team will be Bonderman, Willis and Rogers getting healthy and pitching better than league average. Maybe not all three can be expected to bounce back but they will need at least two. At age 43, I'm skeptical about Rogers pitching a full season after his health problems of 2007. I'm more hopeful for Bonderman and Willis but they are defintely question marks.
The raw data for this report were abstracted from The Hardball Times database.
In a later post, I will look at relief pitchers
Table 1: FIP ERAs for Tiger Starters (plus Dontrelle Willis) in 2007
Name | IP | ERA | FIP ERA | DER | FIP-Actual | LOB % | |
19 | Verlander | 201.7 | 3.66 | 4.09 | .721 | 0.43 | .75 |
23 | Bonderman | 174.3 | 5.01 | 4.22 | .681 | -0.79 | .66 |
40 | Robertson | 177.7 | 4.76 | 4.73 | .692 | -0.03 | .71 |
55 | Willis | 205.3 | 5.17 | 5.10 | .682 | -0.07 | .70 |
63 | Durbin | 127.7 | 4.72 | 5.73 | .731 | 1.01 | .74 |
N/A | Jurrjens | 30.7 | 4.70 | 5.40 | .785 | 0.70 | .66 |
N/A | Maroth | 78.3 | 5.06 | 6.53 | .693 | 1.47 | .77 |
N/A | Miller | 64.0 | 5.63 | 5.41 | .673 | -0.22 | .71 |
N/A | | 63.0 | 4.43 | 5.13 | .722 | 0.70 | .69 |
Table 2: FIP ERAs for AL Starters (plus Dontrelle Willis) in 2007
FIP ERA Rank | Name | Team | IP | ERA | FIP ERA | DER | FIP-Actual | LOB % |
1 | Beckett | BOS | 200.7 | 3.27 | 3.22 | .696 | -0.05 | .75 |
2 | Sabathia | CLE | 241.0 | 3.21 | 3.27 | .689 | 0.06 | .74 |
3 | Bedard | BAL | 182.0 | 3.16 | 3.33 | .717 | 0.17 | .78 |
4 | Escobar | LAA | 195.7 | 3.40 | 3.50 | .701 | 0.10 | .73 |
5 | Kazmir | TB | 206.7 | 3.48 | 3.58 | .667 | 0.10 | .75 |
6 | Blanton | OAK | 230.0 | 3.95 | 3.59 | .701 | -0.36 | .68 |
7 | Halladay | TOR | 225.3 | 3.71 | 3.65 | .699 | -0.06 | .70 |
8 | Lackey | LAA | 224.0 | 3.01 | 3.66 | .699 | 0.65 | .76 |
9 | Haren | OAK | 222.7 | 3.07 | 3.82 | .713 | 0.75 | .76 |
10 | McGowan | TOR | 169.7 | 4.08 | 3.82 | .727 | -0.26 | .68 |
11 | Hernandez | SEA | 190.3 | 3.92 | 3.83 | .667 | -0.09 | .75 |
12 | Vazquez | CHA | 216.7 | 3.74 | 3.92 | .712 | 0.18 | .75 |
13 | Wang | NYA | 199.3 | 3.70 | 3.92 | .705 | 0.22 | .72 |
14 | Baker | MIN | 143.7 | 4.26 | 3.94 | .677 | -0.32 | .72 |
15 | Santana | MIN | 219.0 | 3.33 | 3.96 | .729 | 0.63 | .78 |
16 | Pettitte | NYA | 215.3 | 4.05 | 4.00 | .678 | -0.05 | .71 |
17 | Shields | TB | 215.0 | 3.85 | 4.00 | .718 | 0.15 | .72 |
18 | Carmona | CLE | 215.0 | 3.06 | 4.05 | .720 | 0.99 | .78 |
19 | Verlander | DET | 201.7 | 3.66 | 4.09 | .721 | 0.43 | .75 |
20 | Mussina | NYA | 152.0 | 5.15 | 4.11 | .660 | -1.04 | .66 |
21 | Meche | KC | 216.0 | 3.67 | 4.14 | .704 | 0.47 | .73 |
22 | Weaver | LAA | 161.0 | 3.91 | 4.14 | .688 | 0.23 | .74 |
23 | Bonderman | DET | 174.3 | 5.01 | 4.22 | .681 | -0.79 | .66 |
24 | Clemens | NYA | 99.0 | 4.18 | 4.28 | .707 | 0.10 | .68 |
25 | Buehrle | CHA | 201.0 | 3.63 | 4.33 | .713 | 0.70 | .76 |
26 | Schilling | BOS | 151.0 | 3.87 | 4.33 | .704 | 0.46 | .76 |
27 | Matsuzaka | BOS | 204.7 | 4.40 | 4.35 | .701 | -0.05 | .74 |
28 | Silva | MIN | 202.0 | 4.19 | 4.35 | .701 | 0.16 | .71 |
29 | Sonnanstine | TB | 130.7 | 5.85 | 4.35 | .674 | -1.50 | .61 |
30 | Westbrook | CLE | 152.0 | 4.32 | 4.37 | .697 | 0.05 | .70 |
31 | Saunders | LAA | 107.3 | 4.44 | 4.38 | .670 | -0.06 | .73 |
32 | Burnett | TOR | 165.7 | 3.75 | 4.44 | .739 | 0.69 | .76 |
33 | | CHA | 208.3 | 4.23 | 4.46 | .716 | 0.23 | .66 |
34 | Bannister | KC | 165.0 | 3.87 | 4.52 | .739 | 0.65 | .70 |
35 | Guthrie | BAL | 175.3 | 3.70 | 4.52 | .730 | 0.82 | .75 |
36 | Batista | SEA | 193.0 | 4.29 | 4.61 | .690 | 0.32 | .73 |
37 | Millwood | | 172.7 | 5.16 | 4.65 | .660 | -0.51 | .68 |
38 | Loe | | 136.0 | 5.36 | 4.67 | .679 | -0.69 | .62 |
39 | Gaudin | OAK | 199.3 | 4.42 | 4.71 | .695 | 0.29 | .72 |
40 | Robertson | DET | 177.7 | 4.76 | 4.73 | .692 | -0.03 | .71 |
41 | Byrd | CLE | 192.3 | 4.59 | 4.77 | .691 | 0.18 | .71 |
42 | Tavarez | BOS | 134.7 | 5.15 | 4.79 | .699 | -0.36 | .63 |
43 | | BOS | 189.0 | 4.76 | 4.79 | .718 | 0.03 | .68 |
44 | | LAA | 99.3 | 6.34 | 4.81 | .643 | -1.53 | .63 |
45 | Washburn | SEA | 193.7 | 4.32 | 4.83 | .716 | 0.51 | .71 |
46 | Contreras | CHA | 189.0 | 5.57 | 4.84 | .674 | -0.73 | .63 |
47 | Perez | KC | 137.3 | 5.57 | 4.84 | .668 | -0.73 | .67 |
48 | McCarthy | | 101.7 | 4.87 | 4.88 | .700 | 0.01 | .67 |
49 | DiNardo | OAK | 131.3 | 4.11 | 4.93 | .714 | 0.82 | .67 |
50 | Bonser | MIN | 173.0 | 5.10 | 4.98 | .681 | -0.12 | .70 |
51 | | TB | 161.0 | 5.76 | 4.98 | .659 | -0.78 | .66 |
52 | Burres | BAL | 121.0 | 5.95 | 5.03 | .667 | -0.92 | .68 |
53 | Marcum | TOR | 159.0 | 4.13 | 5.05 | .733 | 0.92 | .77 |
54 | Cabrera | BAL | 204.3 | 5.55 | 5.06 | .701 | -0.49 | .67 |
55 | Willis | | 205.3 | 5.17 | 5.10 | .682 | -0.07 | .70 |
56 | Weaver | SEA | 146.7 | 6.20 | 5.11 | .673 | -1.09 | .64 |
57 | Santana | LAA | 150.0 | 5.76 | 5.21 | .676 | -0.55 | .67 |
58 | Litsch | TOR | 111.0 | 3.81 | 5.23 | .725 | 1.42 | .74 |
59 | de la Rosa | KC | 130.0 | 5.82 | 5.27 | .675 | -0.55 | .68 |
60 | Padilla | | 120.3 | 5.76 | 5.37 | .681 | -0.39 | .64 |
61 | Danks | CHA | 139.0 | 5.50 | 5.60 | .691 | 0.10 | .71 |
62 | Ramirez | SEA | 98.0 | 7.16 | 5.60 | .652 | -1.56 | .59 |
63 | Durbin | DET | 127.7 | 4.72 | 5.73 | .731 | 1.01 | .74 |
64 | Trachsel | BAL | 140.7 | 4.48 | 5.73 | .725 | 1.25 | .75 |
65 | Tejeda | | 95.3 | 6.61 | 6.26 | .692 | -0.35 | .64 |
Well done. I find this stuff very interesting. We all know that "wins" are a misleading statistic, but I think more and more people are starting to come around and can see that ERA can be quite misleading as well.
ReplyDeleteFoul balls seem like they may play into things. Some people can instigate more foul balls. A non-caught foul would be considered out of play whereas a caught would, I'm guessing, be considered in play. Does this explain some of the reason for "increased defensive support" for some pitchers. I'd imagine Oakland would benefit the most from this.
ReplyDeletePerhaps not though looking at the oakland pitcher numbers.
Also, I doubt the real formula comes up with such nice coefficients. HR*13? Are these rounded off and if so does that effect the numbers much?
Also it would be interesting to see how well FIP correlates with slugging percentage + OBP.
Solid analysis Lee. Once again, enjoy reading your posts.
Adam, ballparks definitely do affect DER. Some of the other more sophisticated defensive stats I'll get to later are less affected by ballparks.
ReplyDeleteLast year the correlation coefficient for FIP and OPS was .87 which is pretty high.
I got the FIPs from the Hardball times site. I also calculated them using the integer coefficients. They came out different so THBT probably went to one or two decimal places. The differences were really small though. The biggest I saw just eyeballing it was about 0.10.