- took extra bases on hits
- advanced on infield ground outs
- advanced on air outs caught by outfielders
- were thrown out trying to advance on any of the above plays.
- Advanced or were thrown out on plays where the ball was not hit
First, I'll explain the calculation for Total Bases Gained (BG Total) on all the different types of running plays using Carlos Guillen as an example:
- Guillen took the extra base on a hit 26 times and was thrown out 1 time. The out carries a weight of 3 so his Bases Gained on hits (BG Hits) was 26-3 = 23.
- He advanced on ground outs 9 times and was not thrown out so his Bases Gained on ground outs (BG Ground) was 9.
- He advanced on air outs 12 times and was thrown out 2 times so his Bases Gained on air outs (BG Air) was 12-6=6.
- He took bases on plays where the ball was not hit (SB, WP, PB, BK) 32 times and was thrown out 12 times. On these plays, the out carries a weight of 2.3 so his Based Gained on other events (BG Other) = 32 - 12 X 2.3 = 4.4.
- This gave him a BG Total of 23+9+6+4.4 = 42.4.
- Guillen had 49 opportunities to take an extra base on a hit. The MLB success rate was 36.5% so an average runner would be expected to gain .365 X 49 = 17.9 bases. Therefore, he had 23 -17.9 = 5.1 Bases Gained Above Average on hits (BGAA Hits).
- Guillen had 17 opportunities to advance on ground outs. The MLB success rate was 37.9% so the expected bases gained was 6.4. Thus, he had 9-6.4=2.6 Bases Gained Above Average on ground outs (BGAA Ground).
- Guillen had 38 opportunities to advance on air outs. The MLB success rate was 21.0% so the expected bases gained was 8. Therefore, he had 6-8=-2 Bases Gained on air outs (BGAA Air). Of course, the negative number means that he was actually 2 bases below average.
- Guillen was on base 247 times not including home runs. The MLB rate of other bases gained per time on base was 3.36% so the expected bases gained would be 8.3. Thus, Guillen had 4.4-8.3 = -3.9 Bases Gained Above average on other plays (BGAA Other) .
- Finally, the BGAA Total for Guillen was 5.1 + 2.6 - 2 - 3.9 = 1.7. So, by this statistic, Guillen was a slightly above average base runner in 2006.
As a team, the Tigers finished -15.5 bases gained below league average. They actually finished well above average on hits (19.8) and ground outs (11.2). However, they did not do well on air outs (-13.3) or on plays where the ball was not hit (-33.3).
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Table: Total Bases Gained Above Average for Tigers in 2006
Player | BG Hits | BGAA Hits | BG Ground | BGAA Ground | BG Air | BGAA Air | BG Other | BGAA Other | BG Total | BGAA Total |
Rodriguez | 27.0 | 9.8 | 3.0 | -3.8 | 9.0 | 3.7 | 7.8 | 1.3 | 46.8 | 11.0 |
Granderson | 27.0 | 4.0 | 24.0 | 3.9 | 10.0 | 0.3 | 8.9 | 1.6 | 69.9 | 9.8 |
Infante | 10.0 | 3.1 | 12.0 | 5.9 | 2.0 | -0.3 | 3.4 | 0.5 | 27.4 | 9.2 |
Inge | 18.0 | 3.0 | 23.0 | 9.4 | 5.0 | -0.3 | -0.8 | -7.1 | 45.2 | 5.0 |
Guillen | 23.0 | 5.1 | 9.0 | 2.6 | 6.0 | -2.0 | 4.4 | -3.9 | 42.4 | 1.7 |
Polanco | 13.0 | -6.0 | 13.0 | 2.0 | 7.0 | 1.3 | 2.1 | -3.7 | 35.1 | -6.4 |
| 12.0 | 1.4 | 3.0 | -2.7 | 0.0 | -3.4 | 2.4 | -2.0 | 17.4 | -6.7 |
| 16.0 | -0.1 | 5.0 | -1.1 | 5.0 | 0.4 | -0.9 | -6.5 | 25.1 | -7.3 |
| 7.0 | -4.0 | 4.0 | -2.4 | 0.0 | -2.1 | 0.4 | -3.4 | 11.4 | -11.9 |
Ordonez | 19.0 | 1.4 | 9.0 | -3.1 | -6.0 | -11.9 | 3.8 | -3.6 | 25.8 | -17.2 |
Team Totals | 191.0 | 19.8 | 120.0 | 11.2 | 45.0 | -13.3 | 31.0 | -33.3 | 387.0 | -15.5 |
MLB Averages | 196.7 | 0.0 | 127.1 | 0.0 | 63.7 | 0.0 | 79.1 | 0.0 | 466.6 | 0.0 |
Now the question is does the fact that a 35 year old catcher is the best baserunner speak more to Pudge's freakish ability or the Tigers complete lack of team speed.
ReplyDeleteProbably some of both I'd say.
Yes, I'd say it's probably a combination of both. What I haven't checked yet is the consistency from year to year. I've just looked at 2006 data so far.
ReplyDelete