He uses STATS Inc. data to obtain information about each ball put in play – direction, type of hit (ground, fly, line drive, bunt, pop up) and intensity of hit (soft, medium, hard). For each direction/type/intensity combination, he uses something called Maximum Likelihood Estimation to calculate the probability of an out for each of the 9 fielders. Based on these probabilities, he calculates the predicted number of outs for an average defender at each position on each team. He then compares this to the actual number of outs made.
For example, the table below shows that there were 1,233 balls put in play in games when Omar Infante played shortstop. Based on the PMR, the average shortstop should have made 157.18 (or 158) successful plays on the balls that were hit. Infante actually made 171 plays. This was14 (or 8.8%) more than expected. Interestingly, this was the best percentage in baseball for shortstops with 500 or more balls in play when they were in the game. Looking at ground balls only (GB), Infante made 4.7% more plays than expected. Carlos Guillen, made 2.9% fewer plays than expected and 2,7% more plays than expected on ground balls.
Pinto has only posted results for middle infielders so far. I’ll add the results for other positions as they become available.
Table: Probabilistic Model of Range
Player | Pos. | Type of Hit | BIP | Outs | Pred. Outs | Diff | % Diff |
Infante | SS | Any | 1233 | 171 | 157.18 | 13.82 | 8.79 |
Infante | SS | GB | 567 | 131 | 125.07 | 5.93 | 4.74 |
Guillen | SS | Any | 1934 | 240 | 247.06 | -7.06 | -2.86 |
Guillen | SS | GB | 950 | 203 | 197.69 | 5.31 | 2.69 |
Polanco | 2B | Any | 3001 | 336 | 322.35 | 13.65 | 4.23 |
Infante | 2B | Any | 1810 | 190 | 193.21 | -3.21 | -1.66 |
| 2B | Any | 3318 | 490 | 413.33 | 76.67 | 18.55 |
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