Detroit Tiger Preview - Part 4 (Pitching)

Today, I’ll present the final part of my series of posts previewing the 2006 season. The first three posts are here:

• Part 1 – Overview
• Part 2 – Offense
• Part 3 – Fielding
  

In Part 4, I’ll forecast the pitching and give my prediction for the team win total.

The Tigers had a 4.51 ERA in 2005, good enough for 8^th in the league. Kenny Rogers and Todd Jones should make up for the losses of Jason Johnson, Kyle Farnsworth and Ugueth Urbina but they probably won’t be enough to significantly improve the overall pitching. In order for there to be a substantial improvement in their team pitching results this year, I believe they would need dramatic development of their young pitchers. I do expect some improvement by Jeremy Bonderman but I think Justin Verlander and Joel are not quite ready to break out in 2006. It may be a different story in 2007 or 2008. I also am concerned that they don’t have quite enough talent in the bullpen and that may hurt.

In think most of the improvement in 2006 will come from the offense. That could fall apart too if the injuries pile up too much but I’m going to be optimistic and say that they’ll be a little healthier than last year. As for the predicted team win total…again I’ll be optimistic and predict that they will finish .500 for the first time since 1993. Exactly .500. 81 wins. More importantly, I think their future looks brighter than that.

Now for the individual pitcher forecast:

Starters

Kenny Rogers

Rogers had one of his best years last year at the age of 40 in one of the best hitting parks in the majors. I don’t expect a repeat this year but Comerica Park should help him. He should do a little better than Jason Johnson.

Year	IP	ERA	HR	BB	SO
2005	195	3.46	15	53	87
2006 Projected	186	4.25	18	48	81

Jeremy Bonderman

Bonderman pitched better than his ERA last year. He had a season ending elbow injury last year which still concerns me a little but he seems to be ok so far this spring. I think he’ll reach 200 innings for the first time and get his ERA down close to 4.00.

Year	IP	ERA	HR	BB	SO
2005	189	4.57	21	57	145
2006 Projected	210	4.05	24	64	183

Nate Robertson

Robertson faded in the second half of 2005 after a good first half for the second straight year. He also had a drop in velocity which could mean an injury or could just be the result of former pitching coach Bob Cluck’s “pitch to contact” philosophy. I’ll assume the latter and look for Robertson to have similar overall numbers this year.

Year	IP	ERA	HR	BB	SO
2005	197	4.48	28	65	122
2006 Projected	185	4.60	25	62	127

Mike Maroth

Maroth will continue to pile up innings and get hit fairly hard in the process. He will also have good enough control to keep his ERA fairly close to league average.

Year	IP	ERA	HR	BB	SO
2005	209	4.74	30	51	115
2006 Projected	205	4.65	29	46	100

Justin Verlander

I’m excited about Verlander but realistically you have to expect some growing pains this year. He’ll pitch some great games and get shelled a number of times as well. He should improve as the season progresses.

Year	IP	ERA	HR	BB	SO
2005	11	7.15	1	5	7
2006 Projected	165	5.05	16	70	140

Relievers

Todd Jones

Jones had perhaps his best year last year at the age of 37 but that was an aberration from his other recent years. I think he’ll be back on the roller coaster again this year. He’ll be one of those relievers who gets a lot of saves but also blows a lot of saves and catches more abuse from fans than he should.

Year	IP	ERA	HR	BB	SO
2005	73	2.10	2	14	62
2006 Projected	70	3.86	6	31	58

Fernando Rodney

Rodney will set up Jones and should be OK in that role. He will get the first shot at closing if Jones blows up. I think he’s more suited to setting up though.

Year	IP	ERA	HR	BB	SO
2005	44	2.86	5	17	42
2006 Projected	64	3.52	5	29	63

Jamie Walker

Walker will be the lefty specialist again this year. Fans will curse his gopher balls but he should have another decent year.

Year	IP	ERA	HR	BB	SO
2005	49	3.70	5	13	30
2006 Projected	56	3.86	6	17	44

Chris Spurling

Spurling quietly pitched 70 innings with pretty good results last year. He should continue to be a capable middle reliever in 2006.

Year	IP	ERA	HR	BB	SO
2005	71	3.44	8	22	26
2006 Projected	75	4.05	9	22	35

Joel Zumaya

Like Verlander, Zumaya will probably have his ups and downs this year. He’ll be a long reliever but may get some spot starts later in the year. The final numbers might not be too pretty but he will be dominant at times and exciting to watch.

Year	IP	ERA	HR	BB	SO
2005	---	---	---	---	---
2006 Projected	80	4.75	10	41	88

Roman Colon

Colon will also be a long reliever and spot starter. He might be the first one to step into the rotation if someone gets injured.

Year	IP	ERA	HR	BB	SO
2005	69	5.58	17	21	47
2006 Projected	95	4.97	18	38	63

Bobby Seay

Jim Leyland wants a second left-hander in the bullpen and Bobby Seay could be the man. He pitched OK in brief stints with Tampa Bay and may be useful in a limited role.

Year	IP	ERA	HR	BB	SO
2005	12	8.49	3	8	11
2006 Projected	50	4.35	7	24	42

Carlos Pena Released

After three years of expectation, flashes of greatness and much frustration, The Detroit Tigers released Carlos Pena this morning. This means they only have to pay 45 days of his 2.8 million dollar salay.

This comes to no big surprise but I can understand if they felt his role would have been too small to justify his salary . I think they could have used his left-handed bat in a semi-platoon role as he hits right-handers better than most on the team. However, with three first basemen on the roster, it would have been difficult to work such an arrangement even if Young plays elsewhere occasionally. He was not tradeable with his big salary but now that he has been released, he will likely be picked up by another team pretty quickly.

Pena was one of my favorite Tigers partly because he grew up in Haverhill, Massachusetts and attended Northeastern University in Boston. There are not a lot of Massachusetts players who make the majors and I enjoyed watching one play for my favorite team. A fresh start with a new team, perhaps in a platoon role, might be good for him. I wish him well.

Detroit Tiger Blog Links

I'm still working on the final part of my preview so today I'll link to a couple of other sites:

Billfer discusses the Tigers opening day line-up in his Detroit Tigers Weblog. I share some of the same reservations about the line-up as Billfer but, like him, I'm not too concerned at this point.

On Wednesday, Brian Borawski gave his Detroit Tiger preview on Hardball Times. As many of you already know, Brian posts much of his work in Tiger Blog.

Detroit Tiger Preview - Part 3 (Fielding)

Earlier in the week, I posted the first two parts of my 2006 Tiger preview:

Part 1 – The Overview

Part 2 – The Offense

Today, in Part 3, I’ll look at the fielding. In Part 4, I’ll forecast the pitching and then give my prediction for total Tiger victories in 2006.

In 2005, the Tigers finished with a league average Defensive Efficiency Ratio (proportion of total balls in play turned into outs) of .696. They were strong defensively at catcher, in the infield from second base to third base and in center field. Their weakest spots were the corner outfield positions and first base.

With pretty much the same line-up coming back this year, we can probably expect the same strengths and weaknesses in 2006. Overall, they will probably be average again this year. The biggest concern is that they play half their games in Comerica Park which is not a good place for outfielders who lack range.

Defensive Efficiency Ratio is a nice way to quantify team defense. Individual defense is more difficult to evaluate but there are a lot more tools available now than there used to be. Fielding metrics are still not at the point where we can use them as we use hitting statistics but they have improved a lot in the last few years. Another good online tool is Tom Tango’s Fan Fielding Survey in which many of you participated. Plus, there are always random scouting reports, discussions with good fans and personal observation. The grades below are based on an aggregation of these objective measures and subjective impressions. C is considered an average grade.

Catcher

Ivan Rodriguez (A) – Rodriguez gets mixed reviews on his game calling but there is little question about his arm, footwork and instincts around the plate. He is still among the best in baseball. He threw out 45% of base runners attempting to steal last year which was second in the majors to Yadier Molina.

Vance Wilson (C) – Wilson is not on the team for his offense. He is a capable defensive backup but certainly not in the Rodriguez class.

First base

Chris Shelton (C-) – Shelton is not athletic and has below average range but appears to be a steadier fielder than advertised. He should improve a little with more experience.

Carlos Pena (C) – Pena can be a very graceful first basemen and is said to have gold glove potential but , like his hitting, his performance hasn’t quite matched his perceived ability. He has good footwork around the bag but has below average range and occasional lapses in concentration. He probably won’t play much first base this year with Shelton around.

Dmitri Young (D) – Young used to be a decent fielder for a big guy but wasn’t able to play in the field last year without getting hurt. A slimmer Dmitri will try to play some third base and outfield as well as first base this year but I’m not confident he’ll be much more than a designated hitter in 2006.

Second base

Placido Polanco (B+) – Polanco has slightly above average range and one of the best gloves in the majors. He is also a solid third baseman when called upon.

Shortstop

Carlos Guillen (B-) – Guillen has only average range but is a steady shortstop. He and Polanco should make an excellent double play combination when they get a chance to play together consistently.

Omar Infante (B-) – Infante has had trouble with tendonitis which hampered his throwing at times last year. It’s been a problem again this spring. When healthy, he has good range and is a steady fielder. He is very capable at second base and shortstop. He can also play third base and outfield although he has not played those positions as much.

Third base

Brandon Inge (B+) – A lot of fans grumble about Inge’s throwing errors but he has excellent range. He is an above average defensive third baseman and could be gold glove caliber if his throwing settles down. He can play just about any position and many fans, including me, would like to see him used as a super-sub.

Left field

Craig Monroe (C) – Monroe lacks the range desired from a Comerica Park outfielder. His defensive value is that he can play any outfield postion without embarrassing himself. I wouldn’t want to see him play center field for any length of time though.

Center field

Curtis Granderson (B) – Granderson somehow has a “corner outfielder” label which he can’t shake. However, those who have watched him in the minors on a regular basis say he will be an above average center fielder in the majors. He had outstanding fielding range stats in a small sample of games last year. I’m giving him a B for now until he shows what he can do for a full season.

Nook Logan (B+) – Logan shows poor instincts at times but usually makes up for it with his speed. He was among the league leaders in all the range metrics last year.

Right field

Magglio Ordonez (C-) – Ordonez had a poor year defensively last year. He was a pretty good defender in the past but I’m not convinced that he will gain the mobility needed to be a strong defender.

Nine More Cut by Tigers

The Tigers now have 36 players remaining in camp after making 9 more cuts this morning. The latest round of cuts includes: Wil Ledezma, Chad Durbin, Lee Gardner, Kevin Hodge, Brian Peterson, Max St. Pierre, Josh Phelps, Reggie Taylor and Ryan Ludwick. Ledezma was optioned to Toledo while the others were assigned to minor league camp. With Troy Percival and Craig Dingman headed for the 60 day disabled list, the Tigers have nine more cuts to make by opening day.

None of today's cuts were big surprises but a few were noteworthy. Ledezma entered spring training with a shot at the fifth starter job but he continued to struggle this spring as he did all last year. Ludwick and Phelps both had good springs but did not fit into the current roster. Both will go to Toledo and provide the Tigers with depth for when the inevitable injuries occur.