Sunday, November 02, 2014

Hernandez, Kluber Head List of AL Run Prevention Leaders.


Indians starter Corey Kluber had a great year by any measure in 2014
(Photo credit: RotoScouting.com)

With the off-season awards season getting under way soon, it's a good time to present the sabermetric pitching Leaders.   

There is no surefire way to determine the best pitchers in the league, but a pitcher's job is to prevent runs.  So, it's useful to estimate how many runs pitchers saved their teams compared to an average pitcher.  In the past, I have explored four different ways to do this:    
  • Pitching Runs -  Runs Saved Above Average based on innings and runs allowed. 
  • Base Runs -  Runs Saved Above Average based on batters faced and hits, walks, total bases and home runs allowed.
  • FIP Runs - Runs Saved Above Average based on innings, bases on balls, hit batsmen and home runs allowed and strikeouts.
These measures are discussed in more detail in an earlier post.  After computing them, you can aggregate them using weights depending on which measures you trust the most. I chose to take a simple average.

The 2014 American League leaders are listed in Table 1 below.  Mariners ace right hander Felix Hernandez led the league in Pitching Runs (40), Base Runs (46) was second in FIP Runs (39) and third in Adjusted Pitching Runs (36).  That gave him an average of 40 runs prevented compared to an average pitcher.  

Indians right hander Corey Kluber finished first in the categories which Hernandez did not, specifically Adjusted Pitching Runs (38) and FIP Runs (45).  His average of 37 was second best in the league.

The leading Tiger was Max Scherzer with an average of 24, good for sixth in the league.  He finished fourth in Adjusted Pitching Runs (27), but only 14th in Pitching Runs (15).  Other Tigers in the top 20 were David Price (20 runs prevented for Detroit and Tampa Bay combined) and Rick Porcello (8 runs prevented).  Anibal Sanchez had 12 runs prevented but is not listed since he missed the 150 innings limit.  Justin Verlander was a disappointing -8 worse than league average, but would do better if you put more weight on FIP Runs (+11).    

Table 1: AL 2014 Run Prevention Leaders
Pitcher
Team
IP
Pitching Runs
Adjusted Pitching Runs
Base Runs
FIP Runs
Average
Felix Hernandez
SEA
236
40
36
46
39
40
Corey Kluber
CLE
235.2
36
38
27
45
37
Chris Sale*
CHW
174
32
38
31
32
33
Garrett Richards
LAA
168.2
26
23
35
26
28
Jon Lester*
***
219.2
25
26
23
33
27
Max Scherzer
DET
220.1
21
27
15
33
24
Dallas Keuchel*
HOU
200
21
24
19
21
21
David Price*
***
247.4
14
14
19
35
20
Collin McHugh
HOU
154.2
18
20
23
18
20
Alex Cobb
TBR
166.1
20
18
21
14
18
Phil Hughes
MIN
209.2
8
13
14
35
17
Sonny Gray
OAK
219
17
12
24
14
17
Jose Quintana*
CHW
200.1
5
12
14
32
16
Hisashi Iwakuma
SEA
179
12
9
17
16
13
Yordano Ventura
KCR
183
14
14
7
12
12
James Shields
KCR
227
9
9
7
15
10
Drew Smyly*
***
152.3
13
16
4
6
10
Scott Kazmir*
OAK
190.1
6
2
16
14
10
Chris Tillman
BAL
207.1
12
13
8
5
10
Chris Archer
TBR
194.2
4
2
15
12
8
Hiroki Kuroda
NYY
199
0
6
12
14
8
Rick Porcello
DET
204.2
5
11
4
12
8
Mark Buehrle*
TOR
202
10
14
-5
13
8
Data source: Baseball-Reference.com

No comments:

Post a Comment

Sabermetrics Book

Sabermetrics Book
One of Baseball America's top ten books of 2010

Blog Archive

Subscribe

501 Baseball Books

501 Baseball Books
Recommended by Tiger Tales

Stat Counter

Site Meter