Felix Hernandez Heads AL Run Prevention Leaders

Mariners right hander Felix Hernandez is good at preventing runs by any measure
(Photo Credit: Marinersblog.MLBblogscom)

With the season now about half complete, it's a good time to update the Tiger Tales sabermetric pitching Leaders. 

There is no surefire way to determine the best pitchers in the league, but a pitcher's job is to prevent runs.  So, it's useful to estimate how many runs pitchers saved their teams compared to an average pitcher.  In the past, I have explored four different ways to do this:    

• Pitching Runs -  Runs Saved Above Average based on innings and runs allowed. 

• Adjusted Pitching Runs - Pitching Runs minus estimated Runs allowed by fielders. 

• Base Runs -  Runs Saved Above Average based on batters faced and hits, walks, total bases and home runs allowed.

• FIP Runs - Runs Saved Above Average based on innings, bases on balls, hit batsmen and home runs allowed and strikeouts.

These measured are discussed in more detail in an earlier post.  After computing each measure, I then take the average of the four. 

The current American League leaders are listed in Table 1 below.  Mariners ace right hander Felix Hernandez leads the league in Base Runs (31) and FIP Runs (31), is second in FIP Runs and fifth in Adjusted Pitching Runs.  That gives him an average of 26 runs prevented compared to an average pitcher. 

The leading Tiger is Anibal Sanchez with an average of 14, good for seventh in the league.  He is tied for fourth in Base Runs (17). but only 15th in Pitching Runs.  Other Tigers in the top 20 are Rick Porcello (11 runs prevented) and Max Scherzer (10).  Drew Smyly checks in at +3 and Justin Verlander is a disappointing -7 worse than league average.  

Table 1: AL Run Prevention Leaders as of July 2, 2014

Pitcher	Team	IP	Pitching Runs	Adjusted Pitching Runs	Base Runs	FIP Runs	Average
Felix Hernandez	SEA	128.1	24	19	31	31	26
Masahiro Tanaka	NYY	115.2	25	29	17	18	22
Garrett Richards	LAA	109.0	18	18	23	17	19
Yu Darvish	TEX	104.1	17	23	13	21	18
Chris Sale*	CHW	78.1	16	20	18	15	17
Dallas Keuchel*	HOU	103.2	15	18	15	15	16
Anibal Sanchez	DET	82.0	10	14	17	15	14
Scott Kazmir*	OAK	103.1	17	14	15	9	14
Mark Buehrle*	TOR	115.1	19	21	7	8	14
Corey Kluber	CLE	117.1	11	14	8	20	13
Jon Lester*	BOS	114.0	7	10	9	20	11
Rick Porcello	DET	106.2	11	17	10	7	11
Phil Hughes	MIN	103.0	7	10	7	19	11
Sonny Gray	OAK	104.0	10	8	12	10	10
Max Scherzer	DET	111.1	8	13	3	17	10
David Price*	TBR	131.0	4	4	9	18	9
Chris Archer	TBR	100.0	5	6	11	13	9
Danny Duffy*	KCR	72.2	11	9	12	2	9
Jose Quintana*	CHW	104.2	1	7	6	16	8

Data source: Baseball-Reference.com