Thursday, July 03, 2014

Adam Wainwright is NL Run Prevention Leader

Adam Wainwright of the Cardinals is the NL leader in runs prevented
(Photo credit: HardballTalk.NBCSports.com)

Earlier today, I posted the American League run prevention leaders through July 2.  Now, for the National League. 

There is no surefire way to determine the best pitchers in the league, but a pitcher's job is to prevent runs.  So, it's useful to estimate how many runs pitchers saved their teams compared to an average pitcher.  In the past, I have explored four different ways to do this:    
  • Pitching Runs -  Runs Saved Above Average based on innings and runs allowed. 
  • Base Runs -  Runs Saved Above Average based on batters faced and hits, walks, total bases and home runs allowed.
  • FIP Runs - Runs Saved Above Average based on innings, bases on balls, hit batsmen and home runs allowed and strikeouts.
These measured are discussed in more detail in an earlier post.  After computing each measure, I then take the average of the four. 

The current National League leaders are listed in Table 1 below.  Cardinals right hander Adam Wainwright leads the league in Pitching Runs (29), Adjusted Pitching Runs (24), and Base Runs (27) and is second with 20 FIP Runs.  That gives him an aggregate of 25 runs prevented compared to an average pitcher.  

Johnny Cueto of the Reds is second with 21 runs prevented.  He is tied for first in Base Runs (27), second in Pitching Runs (22) and Adjusted Pitching Runs (19) and third in FIP Runs (17).

Table 1: NL Run Prevention Leaders as of July 2, 2014
Pitcher
Team
IP
Pitching Runs
Adjusted Pitching Runs
Base Runs
FIP Runs
Average
Adam Wainwright
STL
124.0
29
24
27
20
25
Johnny Cueto
CIN
131.1
22
19
27
17
21
Julio Teheran
ATL
126.0
19
18
20
11
17
Clayton Kershaw*
LAD
79.1
17
15
13
22
17
Jake Arrieta
CHC
64.2
14
16
14
15
15
Jason Hammel
CHC
102.2
11
13
12
11
12
Henderson Alvarez
MIA
108.0
12
12
6
11
10
Tim Hudson
SFG
107.2
12
9
9
9
10
Jordan Zimmermann
WSN
103.2
8
7
6
14
9
Michael Wacha
STL
90.1
10
6
10
9
9
Josh Beckett
LAD
98.2
14
11
9
0
8
Tanner Roark
WSN
99.2
10
9
7
7
8
Cole Hamels*
PHI
93.2
8
10
4
8
8
Andrew Cashner
SDP
76.1
9
5
8
8
7
Madison Bumgarner*
SFG
108.2
6
4
6
13
7
Zack Greinke
LAD
103.2
10
7
2
9
7
Alfredo Simon
CIN
102.2
12
9
8
-2
7
Jeff Samardzija
CHC
108.0
4
6
6
12
7
Jon Niese*
NYM
103.0
9
7
7
4
7
Kyle Lohse
MIL
114.0
6
4
11
5
7
Data source: Baseball-Reference.com

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