(Photo credit: HardballTalk.NBCSports.com)
Earlier today, I posted the American League run prevention leaders through July 2. Now, for the National League.
There is no surefire way to determine the best pitchers in the league, but a pitcher's job is to prevent runs. So, it's useful to estimate how many runs pitchers saved their teams compared to an average pitcher. In the past, I have explored four different ways to do this:
- Pitching Runs - Runs Saved Above Average based on innings and runs allowed.
- Adjusted Pitching Runs - Pitching Runs minus estimated Runs allowed by fielders.
- Base Runs - Runs Saved Above Average based on batters faced and hits, walks, total bases and home runs allowed.
- FIP Runs - Runs Saved Above Average based on innings, bases on balls, hit batsmen and home runs allowed and strikeouts.
The current National League leaders are listed in Table 1 below. Cardinals right hander Adam Wainwright leads the league in Pitching Runs (29), Adjusted Pitching Runs (24), and Base Runs (27) and is second with 20 FIP Runs. That gives him an aggregate of 25 runs prevented compared to an average pitcher.
Johnny Cueto of the Reds is second with 21 runs prevented. He is tied for first in Base Runs (27), second in Pitching Runs (22) and Adjusted Pitching Runs (19) and third in FIP Runs (17).
Table 1: NL Run Prevention Leaders as of July 2, 2014
Pitcher
|
Team
|
IP
|
Pitching
Runs
|
Adjusted
Pitching Runs
|
Base
Runs
|
FIP
Runs
|
Average
|
Adam
Wainwright
|
STL
|
124.0
|
29
|
24
|
27
|
20
|
25
|
Johnny
Cueto
|
CIN
|
131.1
|
22
|
19
|
27
|
17
|
21
|
Julio
Teheran
|
ATL
|
126.0
|
19
|
18
|
20
|
11
|
17
|
Clayton
Kershaw*
|
LAD
|
79.1
|
17
|
15
|
13
|
22
|
17
|
Jake
Arrieta
|
CHC
|
64.2
|
14
|
16
|
14
|
15
|
15
|
Jason
Hammel
|
CHC
|
102.2
|
11
|
13
|
12
|
11
|
12
|
Henderson
Alvarez
|
MIA
|
108.0
|
12
|
12
|
6
|
11
|
10
|
Tim
Hudson
|
SFG
|
107.2
|
12
|
9
|
9
|
9
|
10
|
Jordan
Zimmermann
|
WSN
|
103.2
|
8
|
7
|
6
|
14
|
9
|
Michael
Wacha
|
STL
|
90.1
|
10
|
6
|
10
|
9
|
9
|
Josh
Beckett
|
LAD
|
98.2
|
14
|
11
|
9
|
0
|
8
|
Tanner
Roark
|
WSN
|
99.2
|
10
|
9
|
7
|
7
|
8
|
Cole
Hamels*
|
PHI
|
93.2
|
8
|
10
|
4
|
8
|
8
|
Andrew
Cashner
|
SDP
|
76.1
|
9
|
5
|
8
|
8
|
7
|
Madison
Bumgarner*
|
SFG
|
108.2
|
6
|
4
|
6
|
13
|
7
|
Zack
Greinke
|
LAD
|
103.2
|
10
|
7
|
2
|
9
|
7
|
Alfredo
Simon
|
CIN
|
102.2
|
12
|
9
|
8
|
-2
|
7
|
Jeff
Samardzija
|
CHC
|
108.0
|
4
|
6
|
6
|
12
|
7
|
Jon
Niese*
|
NYM
|
103.0
|
9
|
7
|
7
|
4
|
7
|
Kyle
Lohse
|
MIL
|
114.0
|
6
|
4
|
11
|
5
|
7
|
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