Friday, March 23, 2012

Yankees to Beat Out Rays, Red Sox in AL East

As opening day approaches, I'm making predictions for each of the six divisions in MLB.   I have projected won/loss records, runs scored (RS), runs allowed (RA) and run differential (RS-RA) for each team.  I don't have a complex formula to determine the results.  I just looked at last year's final numbers and moved teams up and down according to how much I thought they would regress or improve from last year to this year.

The Yankees have an aging core, but the additions of pitchers Michael Pineda, Hiroki Kuroda and Andy Pettitte give them a much deeper staff than they had in 2011.  The Rays have the pitching to give the Yankees a battle, but their average offense will keep them from winning.  They should however finish second and secure a wild card spot.  The Red Sox are good enough to contend, but they have too many question marks and will ultimately fall short. 

Projected AL East Standings

Team
W
L
RS
RA
RS-RA
New York Yankees
95
67
838
694
144
Tampa Bay Rays
91
71
702
605
97
Boston Red Sox
87
75
810
746
64
Toronto Blue Jays
80
82
765
779
-14
Baltimore Orioles
67
95
690
830
-140

Divisional Awards

MVP
Evan Longoria, TB
Robinson Cano, NY
Adrian Gonzalez, Bos

Cy Young
C.C. Sabathia, NY
David Price, TB
Jon Lester, Bos

Breakout Players
Matt Moore, TB
Desmond Jennings, TB
Brett Lawrie, Tor

Blogs

I won't waste time trying to give detailed analyses of teams I don't follow on a daily basis.  These blogs can tell you more about the teams than I can: 

Yankees
River Avenue Blues
Replacement Level Yankees Weblog

Rays
Drays Bay
Rays Index 

Red Sox
Over the Monster
Fire Brand American League 

Blue Jays
Bluebird Banter
Mop-Up Duty

Orioles
Camden Chat
Birds Watcher

No comments:

Post a Comment

Sabermetrics Book

Sabermetrics Book
One of Baseball America's top ten books of 2010

Blog Archive

Subscribe

501 Baseball Books

501 Baseball Books
Recommended by Tiger Tales

Stat Counter

Site Meter