Saturday, February 12, 2011

PECOTA Comparables

Baseball Prospectus recently released its Player Empirical Comparison and Optimization Test Algorithm (PECOTA) projections for 2011.  PECOTA is a complicated projection system created by Nate Silver and recently improved by Colin Wyers.  It uses the statistics and characteristics (age, height, weight, position) of a given player and the statistics and characteristics of similar players to arrive at projections for that player.

Accessing the data requires a subscription, so I can't reveal too much, but I will give you a look at a few players.  Rather than giving you statistical projections, I will present lists of players which were considered the closest comparisons to Tigers players.  These comparisons are fun, but should probably not be taken all that seriously. 

Austin Jackson

Roger Bernadina Felix Pie Adam Jones

Most systems are projecting a regression for Jackson in 2011 because of his high strikeout rate and probably unsustainable BABIP.  PECOTA is no different and the first two comparisons - Bernadina and Pie - are not very flattering.  Jones is a little better, although he's a different kind of hitter at this point (more power than Jackson)

Daniel Fields

Justin Upton B.J. Upton Adam Jones

These are certainly optimistic comparisons for a kid who has not played above single-A.  I wouldn't complain if he turned into any one of those players.  I think it's more of a best case scenario than something we can expect though.

Brandon Inge

Howard Johnson Ron Santo Al Smith

I don't know about you, but Brandon Inge does not remind me of Ron Santo.

Jacob Turner

Madison Bumgarner Don Drysdale Rick Porcello

As I said with Fields, it's pretty encouraging for a player coming out of single-A to compare with productive major leaguers, especially when one of them is Don Drysdale.

Rick Porcello

Mike Witt Bill Parsons Dave Rozema

Mike Witt makes sense because he debuted in the majors at a fairly young age and took some time before he increased his strikeout rate.  I hope Porcello is not Parsons because his career would soon be over.

Max Scherzer

Roger Clemens Zack Greinke Len Barker

Roger Clemens!

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