Fun with WAR

Over at Mack Avenue Tigers, Kurt is peeking into the future using ZIPS projections from Baseball Think Factory. I'm going to look into past using historical WAR estimates from Sean Smith's Baseball Projection site. In a recent post, I looked at Runs Above Replacement (RAR) for the Tigers in 2008 and 2009. RAR is the estimated total number of runs each player contributed based on everything they did on offense and defense. Every 10 runs is worth roughly one win, so a player like Miguel Cabrera who was 54.6 RAR would be 54.6/10 = 5.5 Wins Above Repacement (WAR).

The Top Tigers positions players of all-time in terms of WAR are listed in Table 1. For example, Ty Cobb was 159.3 WAR lifetime which is the third best total in the history of the game. You can find the Top 500 in all of baseball at Baseball Projection. The top two were Babe Ruth (172.0) and Barry Bonds (171.4).

Table 1: Tigers Lifetime WAR Leaders - Position Players

Rank	Player	WAR
3	Ty Cobb	159.3
24	Al Kaline	90.8
34	Charlie Gehringer	80.9
39	Sam Crawford	76.3
54	Lou Whitaker	69.6
55	Harry Heilmann	69.3
67	Alan Trammell	66.8

Before we go any further, keep in mind that WAR estimates become somewhat less reliable as we go back in time due the less detailed fielding data available. Smith uses his Total Zone fielding system to evaluate fielders for the retrosheet years starting in 1956 and Adjusted Range Factor prior to that. The most reliable data are for 2003 and forward. Data between 1956 and 2001 are a little less reliable and data prior to 1956 are the least accurate in terms of fielding contribution.

That being said, two of the most notable rankings belong to Lou Whitaker (#54) and Alan Trammell (#67). If you think Whitaker belongs in the hall of Fame, WAR supports your claim strongly. Of the 53 players ahead of Whitaker, all but one are either Hall of Famers or not yet eligible. The only exception was Bill Dahlen, a National League shortstop between 1891 and 1911. First ballot Hall of Famer Ryne Sandberg finished 94th.

The only eligible non Hall-of Famers ahead of Trammell were Dahlen and Bobby Grich who played second base for the Orioles and Angels between 1970 and 1986. Automatic Hall of Famer Ozzie Smith finished 80th on a system which puts a good deal of weight on fielding.

The Tigers all-time pitching leaders are listed in Table 2. WAR pitching is based mostly on innings pitched, strikeouts, walks and home runs. It does not work as well in the early part of the 2oth century when pitchers pitchers pitched more to contact than they do today. Anyway, there are no Tigers in the top 4o. The top Tiger is Jim Bunning who is number 41 on the list with 60.1 WAR.

WAR does not support Jack Morris's quest for the Hall of Fame as he is just 136th on the all-time list. The biggest snub is Bert Blyleven at #13. The top 29 eligibles are in the Hall of Fame.

Table 2: Tigers All-time WAR Leaders - Pitchers

Rank	Player	WAR
41	Jim Bunning	60.1
51	Hal Newhouser	56.3
72	Tommy Bridges	50.7
93	Mickey Lolich	45.6
104	Dizzy Trout	43.6
136	Jack Morris	39.3
171	Bill Donovan	34.8
225	Earl Whitehill	30.1
274	Hooks Dauss	26.7