Monday, March 02, 2009

Composite Projections for Tigers Pitchers - 2009

I posted the composite projections for Tigers batters on Saturday. The projections for the pitchers are shown in Table 1 below. In this case, I calculated the average ERA and K/BB projections over the same three systems I used for batters: CHONE, Marcels and ZIPS. To give you some context, the median ERA for regular starting pitchers last year was 4.22 and the median K/BB ratio was 2.1.

The projection for Verlander (4.09 ERA and 2.2 K/BB) would be an improvement over last year (4.84, 1.9) but not as good as his 2007 numbers (3.66, 2.7). I think the Tigers need something more like 2007 from him if they are going to contend. Armando Galarraga is expected to regress from 3.73/2.1 in 2008 to 4.34/1.9 this year. Jeremy Bonderman is expected to be around league average but right now I'm wondering just how much he's going to pitch.

Zach Miner's ERA is projected to be 4.21 which would be very solid but keep in mind that the systems are projecting him as a reliever rather than a starter and reliever ERAs tend to be lower than starter ERAs. His projected K/BB ratio of 1.6 is less encouraging. The projections for the rest of the potential starters are not rosy with Edwin Jackson, Nate Robertson and Dontrelle Willis all expected to have ERAs of 4.84 or higher.

Table 1: Composite projections for Tigers starters.

Pitcher

ERA

K/BB

Justin Verlander

4.09

2.2

Jeremy Bonderman

4.27

2.3

Armando Galarraga

4.34

1.9

Edwin Jackson

4.84

1.6

Nate Robertson

4.96

1.8

Dontrelle Willis

5.09

1.3

Zach Miner

4.21

1.6

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